Game Analysis view analysis

Strong Opinion – Team Total Miami Under (20.5 -105)

Alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals is the game Under (51) to 50

Lean – Baltimore (-7.5) over MIAMI

• Last week was Miami’s first game without TE Darren Waller and WR Tyreek Hill. Tua Tagovailoa’s 2.37-second average time to throw against the Falcons was his quickest this season, and his 3.7-yard average depth of target was his lowest since 2021.
• The Dolphins used six offensive linemen on 13 plays in Atlanta. Head coach Mike McDaniel has never used jumbo personnel before last week.
• Miami’s quick game and jumbo package will struggle on Thursday night as Baltimore’s defense is 4th relatively versus heavy personnel.
• The Ravens have made a minor tweak to their defensive secondary coming out of the bye week, as newly acquired S Alohi Gilman took on an every-down role, and they are starting just two cornerbacks in Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey. Safety Kyle Hamilton lined up in the box on 61.3% of his defensive snaps in the win over the Bears, his highest rate in a game since 2022.
• Baltimore defensive coordinator Zach Orr’s emphasis on gap discipline and pursuit angles is tailor-made to counter McDaniel’s wide-zone ground game. The Ravens conceded only 3.6 yards per carry against zone runs in 2024.
• The Dolphins depend on scheme as much as any offense in the NFL, making the less prep this week a relative disadvantage. McDaniel has coached four Thursday night games in his career, and Miami’s offense has gone under its team total by an average of 6.6 points.
• Lamar Jackson will be back under center for this game, and it remains to be seen how healed his hamstring is, but the Ravens might not need his legs this week. The Dolphins are one of five defenses surrendering 5+ yards per carry, and Baltimore’s offense can lean on RB Derrick Henry.
• Both of these teams have been over teams so far this season, with the Ravens going over in 6 of their 7 games and the Dolphins going over in 6 of 8 games. However, from week 8 on when two teams that have been more than 67% overs meet the Under is 43-24-1, including 30-8-1 if the total is 47 points or higher.
• Our model favors the Ravens by 8.9 points, with a predicted total of 45.3 points. We prefer the Miami Team Total under, since Baltimore with Lamar Jackson at quarterback tends to outscore their model projection.

Miami’s Team Total Under is a Strong Opinion Under 20.5 -115 odds or better.

The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is the game Under (51) at 50 or higher.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – CINCINNATI (+3) over Chicago

• Chicago’s defense was without all three starting cornerbacks last week and surrendered 7.4 yards per pass play to Ravens’ backup QB Tyler Huntley. Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are likely out again this week, while Tyrique Stevenson has a shot to suit up. The backups will struggle against a Bengals’ offense that is targeting wide receivers on a league-high 72.0% of passes since Joe Flacco took over in week 6.
• The Bengals’ defense is dealing with an injury problem of its own, as edge rusher Trey Hendrickson has only 49 snaps since the start of week 6.
• Cincinnati’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.28 EPA/play in the last three games. Hendrickson is worth 2 points according to our numbers.
• Chicago’s offense is 3rd in run play rate over expectation since flipping left tackle from Braxton Jones to Theo Benedet in week 6, and the ground game has a favorable matchup as the Bengals are surrendering 0.08 EPA/rush (31st).
• Our model favors the Bears by 2.6 points, with a predicted total of 51.0 points, and I’ll lean with Cincinnati based on an 81-33-3 ATS situation.

Game Analysis view analysis

Game Analysis view analysis

Game Analysis view analysis

Game Analysis view analysis

GREEN BAY (-13) vs Carolina

• Carolina’s offensive line situation is turning dire, and it’s no surprise that Andy Dalton averaged only 4.2 yards per pass play last week. Panthers starter RT Taylor Moton left the game against the Bills, as well as C Cade Mays and RG Brady Christensen. Carolina was already without starting guard Robert Hunt and backup guard Chandler Zavala. The cluster loss on the Panthers’ offensive line would be worth 2.5 points by our metrics if none of the losses are able to suit up on Sunday.
• Jordan Love’s 232 yards against man-coverage in Pittsburgh were the most by a quarterback this year, but it will be a completely different game this week as Carolina’s defense has an 85% zone coverage rate (4th-highest).
• The Panthers are surrendering a league-high 0.86 EPA/target to opposing tight ends, and they will struggle versus TE Tucker Kraft, whose 131 yards after the catch last Sunday night were the 3rd-most in a game by a tight end in the last decade.
• The Packers should establish an early lead, and we see this number as slightly short, but the backdoor is wide open once Green Bay abandons the passing attack and starts to kill the clock, as Carolina’s defense is conceding just a 33.1% rush success rate (4th).
• Our model favors the Packers by 14.6 points, with a predicted total of 44.7 points.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – HOUSTON (-1.5) over Denver

Lean – Over (39.5)

• Houston’s offensive coordinator tried to help out a putrid offensive line by using jumbo personnel 33% of the time last week. The Texans averaged 6.3 yppl with an extra offensive lineman on the field against the 49ers.
• However, I’m not convinced CJ Stroud’s offense is fixed because San Francisco’s decimated defense isn’t really a proper test. Houston has averaged 6.0 yppl against three JV defenses in the Ravens (missing 5 starters), Titans, and 49ers (missing Warner, Bosa, Huff). The Texans have averaged 4.7 yppl in the other four games.
• The Broncos certainly don’t qualify as another JV defense despite missing Defensive Player of the Year CB Pat Surtain, who is worth 1.5 points according to our metrics.
• Denver’s defense has a 44% pressure rate (2nd), and edge defender Nik Bonitto leads the NFL in pass-rushing efficiency. Bonitto will wreak havoc across from rookie LT Aireontae Ersery, who has surrendered 4 sacks (8th-most).
• Bo Nix’s 11.7 air yards per attempt last week was the 2nd-highest mark of his career, but he will have to shift to shorter passes on Sunday as Houston’s defense has the 4th-highest cover 4 rate.
• The Texans have a 40% pressure rate (7th), but I think Houston’s pass rush will be contained by a Broncos offensive line leading the NFL in pass blocking efficiency.
• Denver has been playing elite football of late, but teams coming off consecutive high-scoring wins tend to letdown on the road and the Broncos apply to a 33-88-2 ATS situation based on that premise.
• Our model favors the Texans by 0.5 points, with a predicted total of 42.3 points, but I’ll lean with Houston based on the situation.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – Over (43.5) – LA Chargers (-9.5) vs TENNESSEE

• Justin Herbert averaged 7.9 yards per pass play last Thursday night against Minnesota with LT Joe Alt suiting up in his first game since September.
• Herbert is averaging 0.24 EPA/dropback with Alt on the field compared to -0.10 EPA/dropback without Alt.
• Herbert will have plenty of time in the pocket on Sunday as Tennessee’s defense will likely again be without its top two pass rushers, Jeffrey Simmons and Arden Key, who are worth 2.6 points combined by our metrics.
• Chargers TE Oronde Gadsden is averaging 2.25 yards per route run (2nd), but I do not think he’ll be as featured in the game plan this week. The Titans are conceding a 50% success rate to opposing tight ends (10th).
• Tennessee’s defense traded two starting cornerbacks and CB L’Jarius Sneed is sidelined. Herbert leads the NFL in targeting wide receivers on 69.5% of passes, and he will attack the Titans’ backup cornerbacks.
• Los Angeles is missing a cornerback of their own after Tarheeb Still suffered an MCL sprain in the last game and is expected to miss two to four weeks. Still is allowing 0.48 fewer yards per cover snap than backup CB Benjamin St-Juste and is worth a half point.
• Our model favors the Chargers by 15.8 points, with a predicted total of 46.0 points, but Tennessee applies to a very good 145-59-5 ATS situation that plays on horrible teams coming off a blowout loss. I used LAC -9.5 in my spread pool but would have used Tennessee at +10 or more.

Game Analysis view analysis

Game Analysis view analysis

Game Analysis view analysis

LA RAMS (-14) vs New Orleans

• The Saints are making a change at quarterback this week, starting Tyler Shough. Shough didn’t win the battle in training camp but was better than Spencer Rattler in college. However, Shough is averaging just 3.2 yppp in the NFL on a limited sample.
• The betting market thinks it’s a small downgrade as the Rams moved from -13.5 to -14 when Shough was announced as the starter.
• Rattler had a league-high 5.4% Turnover Worthy Play Rate, and I expect Shough to be less aggressive trying to fit passes into small windows, as Shough had just a 2.4% interception rate in college despite throwing the ball down the field quite often (13.1 yards per completion average). Shough also tends to throw the ball away rather than taking sacks (he was sacked just 14 times on 403 pass plays at Louisville last season) and negative plays have been an issue for Rattler (18 sacked on 274 pass plays this season). New Orleans could turn into an under team with Shough, especially without starting C Erik McCoy.
• The Rams offense is coming off the bye and getting back starting RT Rob Havenstein and WR Puka Nacua, who has a league-high 69% success rate.
• Our model favors the Rams by 14.4 points, with a predicted total of 47.1 points.

Game Analysis view analysis

Kansas City (-2) vs BUFFALO

• The Bills have beaten the Chiefs in the last four regular-season games, and Kansas City has beaten Buffalo in the four playoff games.
• Neither team has been favored by more than a field goal in any of the games since 2021.
• We think the Chiefs are rightly favored here, and this is the highest total we’ve seen in this matchup since 2022 because the middle of the Bills’ defensive line is vulnerable, likely without Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones. The cluster loss is worth 1.4 points by our numbers.
• Oliver and Jones have a combined 13.4% pressure rate, while backups Deone Walker and TJ Sanders have a combined 8.8% pressure rate.
• Kansas City backup RG Mike Caliendo surrendered 5 pressures last week, forcing Patrick Mahomes to improvise, but starter Trey Smith will likely be back on the field for this game. Smith ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 1.2 points, with a predicted total of 53.5 points.

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – Under (47.5) – Seattle (-3) vs WASHINGTON

• Jayden Daniels should be back on the field on Sunday night after missing last week, and he’ll be thrown into the fire immediately versus Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald. Seattle’s defense is conceding just 5.4 yppp (7th) despite only 5 games combined from two best players in the secondary CB Devon Witherspoon and S Julian Love.
• Witherspoon should suit up this week, but Love suffered a setback with his hamstring injury and will likely miss this game. The two are worth 0.8 points each by our numbers. I think the Seahawks have a strong case for best defense in the NFL whenever they get back to full strength.
• Seattle’s defense is allowing a league-low -0.26 EPA/rush, and they will shut down Washington’s ground game with a 44% rush success rate (10th).
• Commanders LT Laremy Tunsil ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency, but he could miss this game.
• Washington WR Terry McLaurin has a 62% success rate, but he is out, and his backup, Chris Moore, has a 47% success rate. We saw the value McLaurin brings to the offense last week with the toe tap touchdown and catch on the sideline in the 3rd quarter.
• Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald’s disguises thrive against predictable spread looks, and Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid DNA will get neutralized into a dink-and-dunk slog that Seattle’s coverage and pass rush were built to suffocate. The Commanders experience a notable 0.10 EPA per play drop when facing creeper pressures (non-traditional joins the rush while a defensive lineman drops back into coverage).
• Seattle’s offense has just a 43% early-down dropback rate (31st) despite gaining just 3.7 yards per early down rush (29th). Sam Darnold should pass more particularly on 2nd down, but I expect them to be fine with a defensive slog.
• Our model favors the Commanders by 0.7 points with a predicted total of 45.0 points, but I used Seattle in my spread pool based on an 80-24-2 ATS off a bye week angle (I would have used Wash at +3.5).

Game Analysis view analysis

Lean – Arizona (+2.5) over DALLAS

• Kyler Murray will be back for the Cardinals on Monday night. Murray has a 44.8% success rate this year compared to a 48.9% success rate in his first two seasons with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. The only major change to Arizona’s offense was losing offensive line coach Klayton Adams.
• The Cardinals’ offensive line ranks 16th in pass blocking efficiency compared to 5th in 2024.
• Arizona’s ball carriers are getting hit at the line on 48.0% of rushes (25th) compared to 39.5% last season (4th).
• It’s possible Adams was a more impactful coach than Petzing. We’ll see if the Cardinals will be able to make some tweaks in the bye week. Typically, road teams coming off a bye are 1 point better than their fundamental rating.
• Arizona TE Trey McBride 1.57 yards per route run (7th), and he has a favorable matchup as the Cowboys are surrendering 0.40 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (25th) and will likely be missing starting safety Donovan Wilson.
• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson also has a favorable matchup. Ferguson is averaging 0.25 EPA/target (9th), and the Cardinals are allowing a 64% success rate to opposing tight ends (28th).
• Dak Prescott will look for Ferguson underneath against Arizona’s cover 4 because slot WR CeeDee Lamb will be battling in this game. Lamb 57% success rate (18th), and Arizona nickelback Jalen Thompson is conceding 0.92 yards per cover snap in the slot (8th).
• Our model makes Dallas a 1.7-point favorite, with a predicted total of 53.6 points, and Dallas applies to a negative 28-91-2 ATS situation. The Cowboys are 56-28-2 ATS in the Dak Prescott era when facing a 0.500 or worse team, but I think Arizona is better than their record with Murray back behind center.