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1-Star Best Bet – *Kansas City (-1.5) over Philadelphia

• I was surprised to see the Chiefs get faded on gameday in the conference title and in the last couple of days for this game. Not only because our Best Bets beat the closing line at a 76% clip through the years, but it signals the market at large fundamentally misunderstands Kansas City as a different team in the playoffs.
• The Bills averaged +0.6 more net yppl and +0.11 more net EPA/play than the Chiefs in the regular season but the Chiefs clearly use the first 18 weeks as a training ground and don’t show themselves truly until January. It should have been no surprise to see the Chiefs scoring two touchdowns out of Diamond personnel against Buffalo despite not showing it on tape all year. Patrick Mahomes is averaging 3.8 carries per game in the regular season throughout his career and 5.4 rushes per game in the postseason.
• Kansas City can afford to experiment by giving regular season reps to young left tackles or Nazeeh Johnson at cornerback if you have a great quarterback and know you’re going to make the playoffs regardless.
• Mahomes is 18-3 ATS from -2 to underdog because Andy Reid saves part of the playbook for the impact games and Mahomes is more likely to use his legs.
• Meanwhile, Chiefs edge rusher Charles Omenihu, CB Jaylen Watson as well as wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown missed a combined 46 regular season games. Kansas City is much better on both sides of the ball with these players on the field. More on this later.
• The Chiefs are 17-3 in the postseason in the Mahomes era. That 85% win rate translates to a power rating of +10.7 before accounting for a more difficult strength of schedule against exclusively playoff teams. I think it is safe to conservatively rate Kansas City 9.5 points better than average in the postseason.
• However, we do not believe there is blind value on the Chiefs whenever they are favored by less than a field goal. We didn’t bet the side in either of the last two Super Bowls but this season’s Eagles are fundamentally worse than last year’s 49ers and the 2022 Eagles.
• The betting markets had 2023 San Francisco rated as one of the best teams in the last decade, rating that team consistently between 9 and 10 points better than average.
• The 2022 Eagles were not as highly rated by the market as the 2023 Niners, but our metrics had them undervalued and we released bets on them in each playoff game before the Super Bowl against the Chiefs.
• This year’s Eagles were rated 5.5 points better than an average team by the betting market before the last three weeks of the season, when Philadelphia played their backup quarterbacks, and the Eagles’ playoff path does not require a massive upgrade.
• Washington was playing their 4th consecutive road game in the Conference Championship, and the Commanders applied to a 51-109-2 ATS 3rd consecutive road game (or more) situation. Teams coming off a win and playing their 4th consecutive road game are just 2-8-1 ATS in the playoffs. Philadelphia, meanwhile, applied to a 71-17-1 ATS playoff home team situation and a 33-13 ATS conference championship game situation. Eagles’ interior defender Jalen Carter was able to wreck the game with 8 pressures because Washington lost starting RG Sam Cosmi in the Divisional Round.
• Philadelphia hosted a dome team in the snow in the Divisional Round. Philly also applied to a 71-16-1 ATS playoff home team situation while Los Angeles applied to an 8-38 ATS road playoff situation, but the Rams were able to cover +7 despite the unfavorable conditions and negative situation.
• We thought the Packers were overrated as evidenced by our Best Bet on the Vikings in week 17 and Jordan Love was playing through an elbow injury during the Wild Card game in Philadelphia.
• The Eagles were rated 5.5 points better than an average team by the betting market heading into the postseason and I think a bump to 6.5 points better than average is as far as you could make it given the favorable hand they were dealt along the way.
• I don’t believe the true price for Kansas City can be below -2.5 -120 for this game. Our model favors the Chiefs by 5.3 with a predicted total of 49.5.

Kansas City Offense vs Philadelphia Defense

• I mentioned earlier the Chiefs offense is much better with the full complement of wide receivers. Kansas City is averaging 0.15 more EPA/dropback with Marquise Brown on the field and 3 of Mahomes’ four highest DVOA games this season have come in his 4 starts with Brown.
• Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is not at the point in his career where he can give full effort for every regular season game, but he has another gear in the postseason. Kelce averages 69.4 receiving yards per game in the regular season throughout his career and 85.0 yards per game in the playoffs.
• Kansas City’s natural left tackles Wanya Morris, Kingsley Suamataia, and DJ Humphries combined to surrender a 10% pressure rate in the regular season. The Chiefs scrapped them and have improved that positive by moving starting left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle.
• Kansas City’s offensive line ranks 9th in pass-blocking efficiency in the 5 weeks Joe Thuney has started at left tackle. The five games were against Buffalo, Houston twice, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh making it even more impressive considering those four defenses accounted for a quarter of the top 20 edge rushers in pass-rushing efficiency this season.
• The downside to Thuney changing positions is having to start Mike Caliendo at left guard. Kansas City C Creed Humphrey leads the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency, and I expect him to slide Caliendo’s way and contain Philadelphia interior defender Milton Williams, who had 40 pressures (19th).
• Eagles’ interior defender Jalen Carter lined up across from right guards on 97% of snaps this year and had 53 pressures (9th). Chiefs RG Trey Smith ranked 13th in pass blocking efficiency, and he won’t win every rep versus Carter but he will hold up much better than Commanders’ backup guard Trent Scott did in the Conference Championship.
• Eagles’  CB Cooper DeJean conceded -28.3 EPA (2nd) and Philadelphia’s defense changed when the rookie came into the lineup. The Eagles were the lone defense in the NFL to concede less than a 40% dropback success rate from weeks 6 through 17 with DeJean as a starter.
• However, Philadelphia’s defense ranked 15th in success rate allowed versus RPO passes and Kansas City’s offense had a 17% RPO rate in the regular season (2nd-highest). The Chiefs have had a 24% RPO rate in the playoffs and I expect them to be featured heavily in Andy Reid’s gameplan on Sunday.
• The Eagles ranked 2nd in EPA/dropback on passes with 20+ air yards and led the NFL in EPA/dropback on throws with less than 10 air yards. The place to attack Philadelphia’s defense is between 10-19 air yards where they rated 15th and there is likely to be more open space on intermediate passes with Eagles starting LB Nakobe Dean sidelined.
• Philadelphia’s defense surrendered 7.5 receptions per game to slot receivers (9th-most) and Washington TE Zach Ertz had 9 targets in the slot in the Conference Championship. Kansas City’s offense also has a tight end comfortable in the slot as Travis Kelce led the Chiefs with 295 routes run from the slot.
• Kelce has a 56% success rate (6th) and Mahomes will feature him on RPOs and in the intermediate range behind backup Eagles linebacker Oren Burks.

Philadelphia Offense vs Kansas City Defense

• Jalen Hurts averaged 7.8 yppp in Super Bowl LVII against the Chiefs and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was able to make adjustments and limit Hurts to 4.8 yppp in week 11 of last season.
• Spagnuolo has the league’s most unpredictable pressure packages and Kansas City’s defense leads the NFL with a 24% unblocked pressure rate on blitzes.
• Spagnuolo will constantly turn up the heat this week as Jalen Hurts has a league-high 13% sack rate when blitzed and Philadelphia’s offense is averaging only 1.1 yppp versus unblocked pressures (29th).
• The Chiefs have a 37% pressure rate (6th) and they have a favorable injury situation this week. Eagles LG Landon Dickerson is dealing with a possible ACL or meniscus injury while center Cam Jurgens’s back kept him out of the NFC Championship. The two hobbled starters will struggle across from Kansas City interior defender Chris Jones, who ranked 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency.
• The Chiefs have been 0.06 EPA/play better in CB Jaylen Watson’s 8 starts this season compared to the other 11 weeks despite Watson’s starting opponents including only one offense ranked outside the top 20 in yppl. Eight of the 11 games Watson missed were against offenses ranked outside the top 20 in yppl.
• Watson will be a major factor in containing Philadelphia’s wide receivers. AJ Brown had a 62% success rate (4th) and DeVonta Smith averaged 0.63 EPA/target (5th).
• Kansas City All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie lined up across from Texans WR Nico Collins on 41% of his routes in the Divisional Round. Collins has a similar physical body type to AJ Brown and McDuffie limited Collins to 1.60 yards per route run. However, Watson is 3 inches taller than McDuffie and the Chiefs may want to shadow Brown with Watson and a safety over the top and deploy McDuffie on Smith. Houston’s offense did not have a capable 2nd wide receiver, and it was Watson’s first game back, which would be the reason they didn’t do this plan against the Texans. McDuffie is comfortable following Smith into the slot as he took 117 snaps at nickelback this season conceding only 0.90 yards per cover snap.
• The Eagles have a yppp versus two-high safety coverage just 87% of their yppp against single-high (29th) and Jalen Hurts will likely struggle against a Chiefs defense that has a 67% two-high safety rate (2nd-highest).
• Kansas City’s defense allowed a 52% success rate to opposing wide receivers but that weakness has been improved with Watson’s return, as Watson is conceding 0.33 yards per cover snap fewer than backups Nazeeh Johnson and Joshua Williams.
• The Chiefs allowed only a 38% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (4th). This makes tight ends the place to attack the current version of Kansas City’s defense.
• Philadelphia TE Dallas Goedert has a 29% target per route run rate since returning from a knee injury in the final week of the season. Goedert is averaging 50.8 receiving yards per game in the 6 weeks he was healthy with Hurts, Brown, and Smith. The betting market has adjusted to Goedert’s expected uptick in usage setting his receiving yards prop at 52.5.
• Eagles RB Saquon Barkley is averaging 6.7 yards per rush in the postseason, but I expect him to be significantly lower in this game as the Chiefs’ run defense is much better than the Commanders, Rams, and Packers.
• Barkley led the NFL averaging 2.55 yards before contact per rush. The Commanders’ defense ranked 27th in EPA/rush allowed and surrendered a league-high 2.08 yards before contact per RB run while the Rams’ defense encourages opponents to run, ranking 28th in average yards before contact allowed to opposing running backs. Green Bay’s rush defense had a propensity to allow huge plays. The Packers surrendered a run of at least +1.0 EPA at a 15% rate (31st).
• Kansas City’s defense had the 2nd-fewest missed tackles in the NFL and conceded just 3.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs (2nd). I expect Barkley to be limited to less than 5 yards per rush in this game and he is unlikely to break an explosive as the Chiefs allowed carries of 10+ yards on only 11% of opponents’ runs this season (7th).

Kansas City is a 1-Star Best Bet at -2 or less.

Prop Plays (Strong Opinions)

Jalen Hurts To Thrown an Interception (+130) to +120

• Philadelphia’s opponents had a 0.453 winning percentage this season (3rd-easiest) and the Eagles faced the NFL’s softest schedule of defenses, a group that was nearly a point easier than average according to our numbers.
• Philadelphia’s offense averaged a league-low 10:04 time of possession per game while trailing due to the strength of schedule.
• Jalen Hurts averaged 25.2 passing attempts per game but he will likely throw more against the Chiefs because the Eagles are unlikely to have a lead for the entire 4th quarter as they’ve been accustomed to.
• The props market is accounting for this, as Hurts’ passing attempts prop median is at 27.5. I believe the props market is a touch low and I would price it at 28.5 given we think the Chiefs have more game scripts to being in the lead than the betting market.
• Hurts has a 3.2% turnover-worthy throw rate this season (22nd).
• Even if we set his expected interception rate at league average (2.2%), he has a 47% chance of throwing at least one interception on 28.5 attempts.
• The break-even price here for +130 is 43.5%.

Quinyon Mitchell Under 3.5 Tackles + Assists (-140) to -150

• Mitchell has gone under this prop in 11 of his 18 games (61.1%).
• The breakeven price for -140 is 58.3%.
• I believe Kansas City’s offense will avoid Mitchell more than the average Eagles’ opponent this season.
• Mitchell lines up almost exclusively on the outside to the opposing quarterback’s left.
• The Chiefs have the 9th-highest middle pass rate in the NFL.
• When Mahomes does throw outside, just 43% of his throws are to the left.
• Mitchell has 2 interceptions and has conceded only 24 yards on 15 targets in the postseason. I don’t think Kansas City’s offense will go out of their way to challenge Mitchell given the outside left pass isn’t a part of their normal offense to begin with.
• The Chiefs have shown an ability to create a gameplan avoiding outside cornerbacks as they did against Houston with only 3 combined targets into Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter’s coverage in the Divisional Round.

Chiefs to Covert a Fourth Down (-170) to -200

• This is priced based on the Chiefs converting a 4th down on 61% of games this season disregarding week 18.
• However, Kansas City’s offense has converted a 4th down in 13 of Patrick Mahomes’ 20 career playoff games (65%).
• In three of those seven postseason games in which they didn’t have a conversion the Chiefs were huge favorites in the Divisional Round.
• Philadelphia’s defense does not concede explosive plays which will put the Chiefs in longer drives and more opportunities than average to covert a 4th down. The Eagles are allowing 18% of opponent plays to gain 10+ yards (3rd) and a league-low 4% of opponent plays gain 20+ yards.
• I project the Chiefs are 70% to convert a 4th down in this game.
• The breakeven price for -170 is 63%.

Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Under 24.5 Yards (-115) to -135 (Under 23.5 to -115 odds or Under 25.5 to -145)

• This prop is split between 25.5, 24.5, and 23.5 at most books. Barkley had nine games this season with his longest rush above 25.5, nine games with his longest rush below 23.5, and one game where the longest rush was 25 yards.
• This prop is priced correctly if you believe the Chiefs are an average defense the Eagles have faced this season, but that obviously isn’t true.
• Again, Philadelphia’s opponents had a 0.453 winning percentage this season (3rd-easiest) and the Eagles faced the NFL’s easiest schedule of defenses nearly a point easier than average according to our numbers.
• Philadelphia’s offense averaged a league-low 10:04 time of possession per game trailing due to the strength of schedule.
• The Eagles will likely be passing more than usual on Sunday which we discussed the market has adjusted for in Hurts passing attempts props. Barkley will have fewer attempts to break a long rush.
• A run of 20+ yards typically requires missed tackles, but Kansas City’s defense had the 2nd-fewest missed tackles in the NFL and the Chiefs conceded just 3.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs (2nd).
• Barkley is unlikely to break an explosive as Kansas City’s defense allowed a run of more than 20 yards on just 1.9% of opponents’ carries this season (7th).

Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown (-130) to -175

• These last two props have value and are good hedges against our 1-Star on the Chiefs side.
• Hurts has a touchdown in 12 of his 17 full games this season (71%).
• The Eagles started the Tush Push at the beginning of the 2022 season. Hurts has a touchdown in 66% of his games with at least 50% of snaps the last three seasons.
• The Chiefs had some success stopping Josh Allen’s sneaks but it is different from the Tush Push as Allen delays and goes over the left guard. Kansas City’s defense surrendered a 93% success rate on quarterback sneaks in the regular season.
• The break-even price for -130 is 56.5%. I think Hurts is 68% to score in this game.

Xavier Worthy Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115) to -125

• Worthy’s role has increased massively as Kansas City’s coaching staff began to trust the rookie down the stretch. Worthy had no games with an 80% snap share before his last 6 starts were all above 80%.
• However, this increased role is priced into the prop. Worthy is averaging 60 receiving yards in his last 6 games and is 3-3 versus this prop price. Medians will be lower than means.
• This prop is priced correctly for his current role against an average scheme but I believe the Eagles will be able to shut down Worthy.
• Worthy’s most yards of the season came last game against the Bills because Buffalo’s defense had a 47% man-coverage rate.
• Worthy is averaging 1.83 yards per route run versus man compared to 1.27 yards per route run against zone. Worthy’s target percentage drops from 25% of his snaps versus man to 17% against zone coverage. Mahomes has veterans like Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins who have a better feel against zone coverage than the rookie.
• Philadelphia’s defense has a 76% zone coverage rate, and I’d expect even more zone on Sunday after Mahomes had a season-high 65% dropback success rate versus the Bills trying to force man coverage.
• Worthy has been the target on 58% of Kansas City’s screens in the last four games but I do not believe this will be a screen-heavy gameplan as the Eagles led the NFL in EPA/dropback on throws with less than 10 air yards. Only 6.6% of passing yards against Philadelphia’s defense came from screens (4th).
• Worthy will get most of his snaps across from fellow rookies CB Quinyon Mitchell and nickelback Cooper DeJean. Mitchell has 2 interceptions and has conceded only 24 yards on 15 targets in the postseason. DeJean allowed only 0.85 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th).