NFL

2016-24 NFL Best Bets are 469-347-9 (57.5%)

2016-24 NFL Strong Opinions are 345-288-15 (54.5%)

Week and Season Recap Below

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2016-24 NFL Best Bets are 469-347-9 (57.5%)

2016-24 NFL Strong Opinions are 345-288-15 (54.5%)

Super Bowl and Season Recap

We went to the Kansas City well once too often and lost the 1-Star Best Bet on the Chiefs (-1.5 -115), which was the first Best Bet loss of the postseason (5-1 on those). The props (Strong Opinions) were 4-2 for +1.45 units. One was a -170 loss but instead of counting that as two Strong Opinion losses I’ve decided to take a win away from the long term record, as in 2021 our prop on Tom Brady to win MVP at +210 odds was counted as 2 wins. I’ll take one of those wins off the Strong Opinion record rather than adding an extra loss for this year’s -170 prop that lost.

NFL Best Bets were just 52-49-1 for the season for -4.95 Stars and the Strong Opinions were 43-40-2.

Most sharp players lost this season, which is common in a year in which favorites covered the spread 55% of the time (58% from week 5 on). Favorites covering at a high rate led to a huge season by the public, who usually wins less than 50%.

The only other two non-winning season we’ve had with the new model using advanced metrics from play-by-play data (40-39 in 2019 and 43-43-1 in 2021) were followed by seasons in 2020 and 2022 with a combined record of 102-62-3 (62.2%) and the Best Bets were 50-27-2 in 2023.

I expect another bounce-back season next year. That doesn’t soften the blow of a losing season this year but those that have been subscribers over the years have done very well with the NFL plays – particularly after a down season.

2016-24 NFL Best Bets are 469-347-9 (57.5%)  – 241-162-6 on Sides, 164-127-1 on totals, 10-9 1st-half totals, 31-26-2 team totals, 1-2 1st-half team totals, 21-20 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-24 NFL Strong Opinions are 345-288-15 (54.5%) – 135-125-11 sides, 108-83-2 totals, 2-2 1st-half sides, 8-9 1st-half totals, 23-19-1 Team Totals, 1-2 1st-half team totals, 7-2-1 teasers, 61-46 Post-season prop bets.

Closing Line Value

The average closing line value on our NFL Best Bets this season was +2.2%, meaning that playing our games at the release line makes you 2.2% more likely to win each play, on average, than playing them on the closing line, which is also a good indicator of our model. Last year’s CLV was +3.1%.

The Best Bets beat the closing line 66% in 2024 and 79% over the last 4 seasons.