Dr Bob Analysis
**DETROIT (-9 ½) over Orlando
The Magic have really struggled since enjoying their early season positive 3-point variance. Orlando made 41% of their 3-points shots while their opponents made only 30.5% from long range in their first 12 games of the season while going 8-4 straight up and 7-5 ATS. That sort of 3-point shooting disparity from a worse than average team was not going to continue and it hasn’t. Since that lucky start the Magic are 3-15 straight up and 4-13-1 ATS as their season 3-point percentages have settled to about where they should be (36.5% and 37.4% allowed).
Orlando is a bad team without Terrance Ross and Evan Fournier, as the Magic have only been outscored by an average of 2.6 points per 48 minutes when either of them is on the court while being outscored by 8.7 points per 48 minutes with both on the bench. I actually rate Orlando a bit higher than that after adjusting for variance, but they are still being priced too high by the market. The Magic are just 1-7 ATS since Ross was injured and they’re 0-4 ATS the last four games with Fournier joining him on the bench. Aaron Gordon is also out tonight but he really makes no difference in performance based on my analysis.
Avery Bradley may miss this game for Detroit, but he’s not a factor based on my analysis and starting in his place if rookie Luke Kennard, who has a plus-minus of +5.8 points per 48 minutes this season (Bradley is -1.75 points per 48). Detroit won by 6 points as a 5 point underdog at Indiana without Bradley a couple of nights ago and I don’t really care if he plays or not. My ratings favor Detroit by 12 ½ points with current rotations and I’ll take the Pistons in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
My College Basketball Best Bets are now 82-34 on a Star Basis for +44.6 Stars after being one bad beat (look up the end of that UNLV (-7) game) from a perfect 4-0 on Saturday. (I’m now 11-1 this week).
I have already released 2 College Best Bets for just $20 and I may add more. I also have a 4-week package for just $325 and the rest of the College season through the NCAA Tournament for just $745 (about $6 a day).
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- Orlando Magic
- Detroit Pistons
-
Efficiency
114.1
103.3
106.2
-
Pace
103.4
103.4
98.2
4
Factors
-
eFG %
56.9%
45.5%
50.8%
-
D reb %
73.2%
79.3%
77.2%
-
O reb %
20.7%
26.8%
22.9%
-
TO %
14.9%
15.5%
15.5%
-
Free Throw Rate
27.2%
30.4%
27.1%
Skill
-
2Pt %
51.3%
47.7%
50.2%
-
3Pt %
44.8%
26.9%
34.6%
-
3pt Rate
30.9%
30.7%
33.6%
-
Assist Rate
56.5%
54.1%
56.4%
-
Non-Steal Turnovers
7.4%
7.6%
7.4%
-
Foul Rate
23.3%
17.9%
21.5%
Hustle
-
2nd Chance Rate
11.6%
17.3%
12.1%
-
Steal Rate
7.9%
7.5%
8.1%
-
Block Rate
6.6%
6.7%
5.6%
-
Paint Points
41.0%
46.8%
42.2%
-
Fast Break
7.5%
5.6%
9.8%
-
Efficiency
108.3
103.1
106.2
-
Pace
96.5
96.5
98.2
4
Factors
-
eFG %
50.8%
49.6%
50.8%
-
D reb %
78.9%
75.1%
77.2%
-
O reb %
24.9%
21.1%
22.9%
-
TO %
13.8%
16.9%
15.5%
-
FT Rate
19.4%
34.6%
27.1%
Skill
-
2Pt %
51.0%
48.0%
50.2%
-
3Pt %
34.1%
34.2%
34.6%
-
3pt Rate
31.8%
34.6%
33.6%
-
Assist Rate
50.7%
60.4%
56.4%
-
Non-Steal Turnovers
6.2%
7.6%
7.4%
-
Foul Rate
24.3%
19.9%
21.5%
Hustle
-
2nd Chance Rate
12.9%
9.6%
12.1%
-
Steal Rate
9.3%
7.6%
8.1%
-
Block Rate
3.5%
4.1%
5.6%
-
Paint Points
44.9%
37.7%
42.2%
-
Fast Break
11.9%
3.8%
9.8%
*Record:
4 –
1
| GAME LOG |
FOUR FACTORS |
SKILL |
HUSTLE |
| Date |
Opp |
Score |
Efficiency |
Pace |
eFG % |
Off rebound % |
TO % |
FT Rate |
3pt Rate |
Assist Rate |
Non-Steal Turnover |
Foul Rate |
2nd Chance Rate |
Steal Rate |
Block Rate |
Paint Points |
Fast Break |
| 2017-10-18 |
MIA |
116 – 109 W |
109.7 / 103.1 |
105.7 |
52.2% / 47.1% |
25.0% / 21.6% |
13.2% / 12.3% |
32.2% / 16.7% |
23.3% / 29.4% |
51.2% / 61.4% |
7.6% / 4.7% |
17.0% / 18.9% |
20.7% / 15.6% |
7.6% / 5.7% |
9.8% / 4.4% |
48.3% / 51.4% |
9.5% / 1.8% |
| 2017-10-20 |
@BKN |
121 – 126 L |
112.6 / 117.3 |
107.4 |
60.7% / 54.9% |
21.4% / 32.6% |
20.5% / 16.8% |
16.9% / 38.0% |
37.1% / 29.3% |
66.7% / 47.8% |
8.4% / 8.4% |
25.1% / 15.8% |
9.1% / 12.7% |
8.4% / 12.1% |
3.3% / 6.7% |
31.4% / 47.6% |
5.0% / 4.0% |
| 2017-10-21 |
@CLE |
114 – 93 W |
116.4 / 95.0 |
97.9 |
53.9% / 42.4% |
26.7% / 22.4% |
12.3% / 16.3% |
22.2% / 31.4% |
38.9% / 29.1% |
70.0% / 45.5% |
8.2% / 9.2% |
28.6% / 14.3% |
13.2% / 23.7% |
7.2% / 4.1% |
7.0% / 7.8% |
29.8% / 40.9% |
3.5% / 2.2% |
| 2017-10-24 |
BKN |
125 – 121 W |
117.4 / 113.7 |
106.4 |
54.2% / 47.4% |
14.6% / 26.9% |
10.3% / 15.0% |
48.2% / 35.4% |
27.7% / 38.5% |
48.8% / 52.5% |
2.8% / 7.5% |
21.6% / 25.4% |
5.6% / 14.9% |
7.5% / 7.5% |
5.2% / 4.8% |
46.4% / 41.3% |
8.8% / 13.2% |
| 2017-10-27 |
SAS |
114 – 87 W |
114.5 / 87.4 |
99.6 |
63.7% / 36.0% |
15.8% / 30.4% |
18.1% / 17.1% |
16.7% / 30.3% |
27.4% / 27.0% |
45.8% / 63.3% |
10.0% / 8.0% |
24.1% / 15.1% |
9.6% / 19.5% |
9.0% / 8.0% |
7.9% / 9.5% |
49.1% / 52.9% |
10.5% / 6.9% |
*Record:
4 –
2
| GAME LOG |
FOUR FACTORS |
SKILL |
HUSTLE |
| Date |
Opp |
Score |
Efficiency |
Pace |
eFG % |
Off rebound % |
TO % |
FT Rate |
3pt Rate |
Assist Rate |
Non-Steal Turnover |
Foul Rate |
2nd Chance Rate |
Steal Rate |
Block Rate |
Paint Points |
Fast Break |
| 2017-10-18 |
CHA |
102 – 90 W |
103.6 / 91.4 |
98.5 |
47.4% / 45.9% |
17.0% / 7.3% |
8.1% / 17.3% |
12.5% / 39.7% |
27.1% / 41.1% |
58.5% / 55.2% |
4.1% / 3.0% |
21.3% / 15.2% |
6.9% / 4.4% |
14.2% / 4.1% |
4.1% / 3.1% |
43.1% / 33.3% |
11.8% / 0.0% |
| 2017-10-20 |
@WAS |
111 – 115 L |
111.8 / 115.9 |
99.2 |
55.2% / 57.3% |
25.0% / 23.3% |
19.1% / 16.1% |
23.0% / 46.7% |
26.4% / 22.7% |
44.2% / 62.5% |
7.1% / 4.0% |
32.2% / 18.1% |
16.2% / 2.6% |
12.1% / 12.1% |
1.3% / 8.0% |
41.4% / 43.5% |
10.8% / 12.2% |
| 2017-10-21 |
@NYK |
111 – 107 W |
121.8 / 117.4 |
91.2 |
53.3% / 50.6% |
35.7% / 30.0% |
13.2% / 13.2% |
16.5% / 38.3% |
33.0% / 37.0% |
47.7% / 54.1% |
6.6% / 7.7% |
27.4% / 23.0% |
18.9% / 16.8% |
5.5% / 6.6% |
2.5% / 2.2% |
48.6% / 43.0% |
3.6% / 2.8% |
| 2017-10-23 |
PHI |
86 – 97 L |
89.0 / 100.4 |
96.6 |
42.4% / 52.7% |
18.0% / 21.1% |
14.5% / 21.7% |
22.4% / 32.0% |
35.3% / 32.0% |
42.4% / 71.4% |
3.1% / 16.6% |
21.7% / 24.8% |
11.6% / 10.3% |
5.2% / 11.4% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
53.5% / 43.3% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
| 2017-10-25 |
MIN |
122 – 101 W |
122.5 / 101.4 |
99.6 |
60.3% / 48.8% |
28.6% / 16.7% |
15.1% / 14.1% |
18.5% / 24.7% |
37.0% / 29.4% |
66.7% / 51.4% |
10.0% / 7.0% |
22.1% / 19.1% |
15.6% / 10.9% |
7.0% / 5.0% |
3.5% / 4.3% |
42.6% / 37.6% |
19.7% / 0.0% |
| 2017-10-28 |
@LAC |
95 – 87 W |
100.9 / 92.4 |
94.2 |
46.0% / 42.3% |
25.0% / 28.3% |
12.7% / 19.1% |
23.9% / 26.2% |
31.8% / 45.2% |
44.4% / 67.9% |
6.4% / 7.4% |
21.2% / 19.1% |
8.4% / 12.6% |
11.7% / 6.4% |
7.1% / 6.8% |
40.0% / 25.3% |
23.2% / 8.0% |
Orlando Magic
@ 
Detroit Pistons