Miami Heat @

Philadelphia 76ers

Mon, Nov 21
CSN-PH
4:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 705
Odds: Philadelphia 76ers PK, Total:

Dr Bob Analysis

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Opinion – Miami (-4) over PHILADELPHIA

Philadelphia is coming off a 15 point home win over Phoenix but the 76ers are still the worst team in the league and they haven’t handled success well in recent years. Philly is just 10-20 ATS after a victory the last 3 seasons (0-2 ATS this season), including 6-17 ATS if the opponent did not play the previous night (4-16 ATS if not getting at least 13 points). The fact that the 76ers just won a game will give Miami’s coaching staff some ammunition to get their team to focus and the Heat are currently playing their best basketball of the season.

My ratings favor Miami by 6 points, assuming Joel Embiid is playing, and Justice Winslow missing a 4th consecutive game is of no concern given that Winslow is -2 in plus-minus and the Heat have performed basically the same with or without him on the court this season. Miami by gone 3-0 ATS without Winslow. Miami has played relatively better against bad teams, as they are 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS against the 4 below average teams they’ve faced – a 12 point win at Orlando, a 12 point home win over Sacramento, a 23 point home win over Milwaukee and a 3 point win at Washington (as a 4 ½ point dog).  I’ll lean with Miami minus the points.

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  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Miami Heat
  • Philadelphia 76ers
MIA
Avg
Def
Off


  • Efficiency 102.0 103.1 106.9
  • Pace 93.4 93.4 96.1

4
Factors


  • eFG % 47.2% 47.0% 50.1%
  • D reb % 75.5% 73.5% 76.8%
  • O reb % 26.5% 24.5% 23.3%
  • TO % 14.1% 14.0% 14.2%
  • Free Throw Rate 24.2% 25.4% 27.8%


Skill


  • 2Pt % 45.5% 45.1% 49.3%
  • 3Pt % 32.7% 36.2% 34.7%
  • 3pt Rate 27.9% 25.2% 30.6%
  • Assist Rate 52.9% 53.0% 56.8%
  • Non-Steal Turnovers 6.9% 6.1% 6.0%
  • Foul Rate 22.1% 19.9% 21.3%


Hustle


  • 2nd Chance Rate 16.7% 13.7% 12.9%
  • Steal Rate 7.9% 7.3% 8.1%
  • Block Rate 7.5% 5.9% 5.8%
  • Paint Points 48.6% 41.6% 41.4%
  • Fast Break 12.3% 9.9% 12.5%
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