Dr Bob Analysis
Opinion – Miami (-4) over PHILADELPHIA
Philadelphia is coming off a 15 point home win over Phoenix but the 76ers are still the worst team in the league and they haven’t handled success well in recent years. Philly is just 10-20 ATS after a victory the last 3 seasons (0-2 ATS this season), including 6-17 ATS if the opponent did not play the previous night (4-16 ATS if not getting at least 13 points). The fact that the 76ers just won a game will give Miami’s coaching staff some ammunition to get their team to focus and the Heat are currently playing their best basketball of the season.
My ratings favor Miami by 6 points, assuming Joel Embiid is playing, and Justice Winslow missing a 4th consecutive game is of no concern given that Winslow is -2 in plus-minus and the Heat have performed basically the same with or without him on the court this season. Miami by gone 3-0 ATS without Winslow. Miami has played relatively better against bad teams, as they are 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS against the 4 below average teams they’ve faced – a 12 point win at Orlando, a 12 point home win over Sacramento, a 23 point home win over Milwaukee and a 3 point win at Washington (as a 4 ½ point dog). I’ll lean with Miami minus the points.
NBA Guru Selections
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- Miami Heat
- Philadelphia 76ers
-
Efficiency
102.0
103.1
106.9
-
Pace
93.4
93.4
96.1
4
Factors
-
eFG %
47.2%
47.0%
50.1%
-
D reb %
75.5%
73.5%
76.8%
-
O reb %
26.5%
24.5%
23.3%
-
TO %
14.1%
14.0%
14.2%
-
Free Throw Rate
24.2%
25.4%
27.8%
Skill
-
2Pt %
45.5%
45.1%
49.3%
-
3Pt %
32.7%
36.2%
34.7%
-
3pt Rate
27.9%
25.2%
30.6%
-
Assist Rate
52.9%
53.0%
56.8%
-
Non-Steal Turnovers
6.9%
6.1%
6.0%
-
Foul Rate
22.1%
19.9%
21.3%
Hustle
-
2nd Chance Rate
16.7%
13.7%
12.9%
-
Steal Rate
7.9%
7.3%
8.1%
-
Block Rate
7.5%
5.9%
5.8%
-
Paint Points
48.6%
41.6%
41.4%
-
Fast Break
12.3%
9.9%
12.5%
-
Efficiency
99.3
108.9
106.9
-
Pace
97.1
97.1
96.1
4
Factors
-
eFG %
50.0%
51.3%
50.1%
-
D reb %
74.7%
81.5%
76.8%
-
O reb %
18.5%
25.3%
23.3%
-
TO %
16.7%
13.5%
14.2%
-
FT Rate
23.4%
25.0%
27.8%
Skill
-
2Pt %
48.6%
51.4%
49.3%
-
3Pt %
35.0%
33.9%
34.7%
-
3pt Rate
33.9%
29.6%
30.6%
-
Assist Rate
59.6%
55.0%
56.8%
-
Non-Steal Turnovers
7.7%
5.1%
6.0%
-
Foul Rate
21.6%
19.6%
21.3%
Hustle
-
2nd Chance Rate
14.2%
13.2%
12.9%
-
Steal Rate
8.5%
9.0%
8.1%
-
Block Rate
6.1%
7.0%
5.8%
-
Paint Points
41.1%
44.2%
41.4%
-
Fast Break
11.7%
18.6%
12.5%
*Record:
4 –
9
| GAME LOG |
FOUR FACTORS |
SKILL |
HUSTLE |
| Date |
Opp |
Score |
Efficiency |
Pace |
eFG % |
Off rebound % |
TO % |
FT Rate |
3pt Rate |
Assist Rate |
Non-Steal Turnover |
Foul Rate |
2nd Chance Rate |
Steal Rate |
Block Rate |
Paint Points |
Fast Break |
| 2016-10-26 |
@ORL |
108 – 96 W |
114.4 / 101.7 |
94.4 |
50.5% / 42.0% |
34.8% / 28.0% |
10.6% / 11.7% |
16.5% / 31.8% |
16.5% / 19.3% |
57.4% / 58.8% |
5.3% / 6.4% |
23.3% / 15.9% |
21.3% / 18.8% |
5.3% / 5.3% |
8.0% / 4.1% |
68.5% / 37.5% |
13.9% / 8.3% |
| 2016-10-28 |
CHA |
91 – 97 L |
93.6 / 99.8 |
97.2 |
45.3% / 41.8% |
23.4% / 24.1% |
19.5% / 8.2% |
23.3% / 26.1% |
39.5% / 23.9% |
59.4% / 57.1% |
9.3% / 6.2% |
23.7% / 20.6% |
22.0% / 13.4% |
2.1% / 10.3% |
4.3% / 10.5% |
30.8% / 47.4% |
6.6% / 9.3% |
| 2016-10-30 |
SAS |
99 – 106 L |
106.0 / 113.5 |
93.4 |
50.6% / 51.2% |
16.7% / 31.8% |
12.8% / 16.1% |
32.5% / 31.7% |
25.0% / 22.0% |
51.4% / 54.1% |
8.6% / 8.6% |
25.7% / 27.8% |
11.1% / 15.1% |
7.5% / 4.3% |
7.3% / 6.3% |
46.5% / 30.2% |
15.2% / 2.8% |
| 2016-11-01 |
SAC |
108 – 96 W |
102.8 / 91.4 |
95.1 |
50.6% / 41.0% |
12.0% / 18.8% |
14.3% / 14.3% |
33.7% / 30.3% |
33.7% / 25.8% |
64.9% / 35.3% |
10.5% / 4.8% |
20.0% / 21.9% |
5.6% / 11.5% |
9.5% / 3.8% |
10.1% / 4.7% |
33.3% / 47.9% |
20.4% / 6.3% |
| 2016-11-04 |
@TOR |
87 – 96 L |
94.5 / 104.2 |
92.1 |
43.8% / 47.6% |
24.5% / 29.5% |
14.1% / 16.3% |
17.0% / 21.4% |
31.8% / 29.8% |
55.9% / 37.8% |
6.5% / 5.4% |
23.9% / 17.4% |
16.1% / 10.4% |
10.9% / 7.6% |
6.0% / 5.7% |
46.0% / 41.7% |
13.8% / 17.7% |
| 2016-11-07 |
@OKC |
85 – 97 L |
91.6 / 104.6 |
92.8 |
39.3% / 48.8% |
24.5% / 25.6% |
12.9% / 17.2% |
26.2% / 20.0% |
20.2% / 32.9% |
38.7% / 64.9% |
4.3% / 8.6% |
17.2% / 19.4% |
9.4% / 13.4% |
8.6% / 8.6% |
8.2% / 6.0% |
54.1% / 39.2% |
16.5% / 11.3% |
| 2016-11-10 |
CHI |
95 – 98 L |
103.7 / 107.0 |
91.6 |
48.3% / 44.9% |
28.0% / 27.3% |
14.2% / 10.9% |
17.0% / 22.5% |
33.0% / 18.0% |
61.1% / 48.6% |
6.5% / 2.2% |
20.7% / 13.1% |
18.9% / 13.3% |
8.7% / 7.6% |
5.6% / 2.3% |
40.0% / 40.8% |
10.5% / 10.2% |
| 2016-11-12 |
UTA |
91 – 102 L |
99.2 / 111.2 |
91.8 |
50.0% / 53.1% |
9.3% / 14.6% |
8.7% / 9.8% |
23.5% / 23.5% |
21.0% / 24.7% |
55.3% / 30.0% |
3.3% / 4.4% |
18.5% / 20.7% |
2.2% / 10.8% |
5.4% / 5.4% |
4.9% / 4.9% |
63.7% / 51.0% |
11.0% / 5.9% |
| 2016-11-14 |
@SAS |
90 – 94 L |
96.0 / 100.2 |
93.8 |
45.9% / 45.1% |
22.4% / 32.6% |
13.9% / 18.1% |
24.7% / 32.9% |
18.8% / 18.3% |
59.5% / 72.7% |
9.6% / 3.2% |
24.5% / 16.0% |
16.7% / 16.0% |
14.9% / 4.3% |
9.8% / 8.2% |
53.3% / 21.3% |
16.7% / 14.9% |
| 2016-11-15 |
ATL |
90 – 93 L |
91.9 / 95.0 |
97.9 |
44.4% / 50.0% |
37.0% / 16.2% |
23.5% / 19.4% |
15.7% / 23.8% |
25.8% / 21.3% |
36.1% / 48.6% |
9.2% / 8.2% |
23.5% / 13.3% |
25.6% / 5.4% |
11.2% / 14.3% |
8.8% / 4.5% |
51.1% / 53.8% |
4.4% / 6.5% |
| 2016-11-17 |
MIL |
96 – 73 W |
105.4 / 80.2 |
91.1 |
43.8% / 37.1% |
32.1% / 22.2% |
7.7% / 14.3% |
21.6% / 15.3% |
30.9% / 27.1% |
48.7% / 71.4% |
3.3% / 8.8% |
19.8% / 22.0% |
27.1% / 19.2% |
5.5% / 4.4% |
9.4% / 8.2% |
56.3% / 46.6% |
6.3% / 9.6% |
| 2016-11-19 |
@WAS |
114 – 111 W |
122.7 / 119.5 |
92.9 |
58.2% / 54.0% |
40.9% / 28.6% |
17.2% / 10.8% |
30.6% / 25.0% |
31.8% / 30.7% |
48.8% / 52.4% |
7.5% / 5.4% |
22.6% / 23.7% |
13.2% / 22.5% |
5.4% / 9.7% |
8.0% / 5.9% |
36.8% / 37.8% |
9.6% / 13.5% |
| 2016-11-21 |
@PHI |
94 – 101 L |
103.8 / 111.5 |
90.6 |
42.6% / 54.5% |
38.9% / 19.4% |
14.3% / 15.5% |
31.8% / 25.6% |
35.2% / 33.3% |
50.0% / 56.8% |
5.5% / 7.7% |
24.3% / 27.6% |
27.7% / 7.9% |
7.7% / 8.8% |
7.7% / 5.7% |
51.1% / 45.5% |
14.9% / 12.9% |
*Record:
4 –
10
| GAME LOG |
FOUR FACTORS |
SKILL |
HUSTLE |
| Date |
Opp |
Score |
Efficiency |
Pace |
eFG % |
Off rebound % |
TO % |
FT Rate |
3pt Rate |
Assist Rate |
Non-Steal Turnover |
Foul Rate |
2nd Chance Rate |
Steal Rate |
Block Rate |
Paint Points |
Fast Break |
| 2016-10-26 |
OKC |
97 – 103 L |
96.7 / 102.6 |
100.3 |
47.0% / 44.7% |
11.1% / 25.5% |
13.0% / 10.0% |
29.8% / 27.7% |
28.6% / 23.4% |
58.3% / 48.7% |
6.0% / 5.0% |
21.9% / 22.9% |
15.5% / 17.5% |
5.0% / 7.0% |
10.6% / 3.6% |
33.0% / 44.7% |
9.3% / 22.3% |
| 2016-10-29 |
ATL |
72 – 104 L |
71.8 / 103.7 |
100.3 |
38.1% / 52.4% |
8.9% / 14.6% |
19.9% / 12.0% |
18.8% / 27.1% |
22.5% / 23.5% |
57.1% / 73.8% |
9.0% / 3.0% |
19.9% / 14.0% |
12.5% / 7.7% |
9.0% / 11.0% |
5.9% / 8.8% |
50.0% / 48.1% |
9.7% / 18.3% |
| 2016-11-01 |
ORL |
101 – 103 L |
106.3 / 108.4 |
95.0 |
54.3% / 48.4% |
20.6% / 25.5% |
15.8% / 10.5% |
19.5% / 18.3% |
25.6% / 26.9% |
70.0% / 69.0% |
8.4% / 5.3% |
21.1% / 15.8% |
16.8% / 15.5% |
5.3% / 7.4% |
8.6% / 7.3% |
39.6% / 58.3% |
11.9% / 18.4% |
| 2016-11-02 |
@CHA |
93 – 109 L |
96.4 / 113.0 |
96.5 |
46.5% / 57.6% |
18.6% / 23.7% |
17.6% / 15.6% |
17.4% / 32.9% |
44.2% / 43.0% |
67.6% / 64.1% |
9.3% / 7.3% |
24.9% / 17.6% |
21.5% / 7.3% |
8.3% / 8.3% |
2.5% / 3.5% |
38.7% / 38.5% |
11.8% / 12.8% |
| 2016-11-05 |
CLE |
101 – 102 L |
98.7 / 99.7 |
102.3 |
54.0% / 48.4% |
11.6% / 21.6% |
16.6% / 15.6% |
13.8% / 19.8% |
43.7% / 41.8% |
52.5% / 62.2% |
6.8% / 6.8% |
22.5% / 14.7% |
9.9% / 10.8% |
8.8% / 9.8% |
9.9% / 5.7% |
39.6% / 31.4% |
12.9% / 39.2% |
| 2016-11-07 |
UTA |
84 – 109 L |
90.2 / 117.0 |
93.1 |
44.8% / 57.1% |
20.5% / 23.3% |
19.3% / 10.7% |
28.6% / 23.5% |
27.3% / 22.4% |
51.6% / 46.5% |
8.6% / 5.4% |
20.4% / 23.6% |
21.4% / 10.1% |
5.4% / 10.7% |
2.4% / 14.3% |
40.5% / 44.0% |
7.1% / 13.8% |
| 2016-11-09 |
@IND |
115 – 122 L |
107.2 / 113.7 |
97.1 |
55.8% / 58.8% |
21.7% / 17.1% |
15.8% / 14.0% |
20.0% / 22.0% |
37.9% / 20.9% |
50.0% / 51.0% |
7.5% / 4.7% |
19.6% / 15.8% |
7.0% / 5.7% |
9.3% / 8.4% |
7.7% / 7.4% |
40.0% / 42.6% |
7.8% / 11.5% |
| 2016-11-11 |
IND |
109 – 105 W |
104.4 / 100.6 |
94.5 |
48.3% / 47.2% |
26.5% / 8.9% |
18.2% / 12.5% |
36.0% / 26.1% |
37.2% / 21.6% |
66.7% / 59.0% |
4.8% / 5.7% |
20.1% / 26.8% |
16.5% / 1.9% |
6.7% / 13.4% |
6.8% / 2.3% |
25.7% / 51.4% |
5.5% / 17.1% |
| 2016-11-12 |
@ATL |
96 – 117 L |
96.6 / 117.7 |
99.4 |
50.0% / 57.4% |
21.3% / 34.1% |
19.1% / 16.1% |
24.1% / 14.7% |
34.9% / 33.7% |
58.3% / 64.6% |
9.1% / 2.0% |
20.1% / 14.1% |
13.5% / 17.9% |
14.1% / 10.1% |
4.2% / 7.2% |
35.4% / 42.7% |
18.8% / 14.5% |
| 2016-11-14 |
@HOU |
88 – 115 L |
91.0 / 118.9 |
96.7 |
40.6% / 57.7% |
20.4% / 37.8% |
12.4% / 18.6% |
18.9% / 18.7% |
24.4% / 44.0% |
52.9% / 45.5% |
6.2% / 7.2% |
17.6% / 19.7% |
17.0% / 22.6% |
11.4% / 6.2% |
7.7% / 11.1% |
52.3% / 40.0% |
14.8% / 20.9% |
| 2016-11-16 |
WAS |
109 – 102 W |
111.2 / 104.1 |
98.0 |
61.0% / 46.2% |
14.7% / 23.4% |
17.3% / 11.2% |
28.6% / 27.5% |
36.4% / 25.3% |
71.4% / 47.4% |
9.2% / 5.1% |
26.5% / 26.5% |
11.0% / 15.7% |
6.1% / 8.2% |
1.1% / 1.3% |
45.9% / 37.3% |
13.8% / 14.7% |
| 2016-11-17 |
@MIN |
86 – 110 L |
95.5 / 122.1 |
90.1 |
42.8% / 54.1% |
27.7% / 35.7% |
16.7% / 14.4% |
22.9% / 23.5% |
38.6% / 30.6% |
48.4% / 41.9% |
8.9% / 4.4% |
18.9% / 21.1% |
20.9% / 15.5% |
10.0% / 7.8% |
2.4% / 9.6% |
46.5% / 50.9% |
11.6% / 11.8% |
| 2016-11-19 |
PHX |
120 – 105 W |
113.2 / 99.0 |
106.0 |
62.2% / 45.7% |
15.8% / 24.0% |
17.0% / 14.1% |
23.3% / 37.0% |
40.7% / 22.8% |
73.3% / 46.2% |
6.6% / 3.8% |
21.7% / 17.9% |
7.5% / 9.5% |
10.4% / 10.4% |
9.8% / 8.1% |
43.3% / 38.1% |
15.8% / 30.5% |
| 2016-11-21 |
MIA |
101 – 94 W |
111.5 / 103.8 |
90.6 |
54.5% / 42.6% |
19.4% / 38.9% |
15.5% / 14.3% |
25.6% / 31.8% |
33.3% / 35.2% |
56.8% / 50.0% |
7.7% / 5.5% |
27.6% / 24.3% |
7.9% / 27.7% |
8.8% / 7.7% |
5.7% / 7.7% |
45.5% / 51.1% |
12.9% / 14.9% |
Miami Heat
@ 
Philadelphia 76ers