Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors Matchup Analysis

Dr Bob Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Opinion – TORONTO (+6) over Golden State

Rotation #514 – 5:05 pm Pacific

I won with Toronto as a Best Bet last night against Cleveland and the Raptors are still not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers despite covering the spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Golden State is rounding into form and I rate the Warriors at 11 points better than average when they have either Curry or Durant on the court, which they will in competitive games, but Toronto has been 6 points better than an average team this season despite shooting well below expectations from 3-point range (31.0% versus 37.0% last season with basically the same team). With zero home court advantage due to the rest scenario, the Warriors would be favored by 5 points even if Toronto continues to shoot only 31% from beyond the 3-point arc, which is unlikely. I would favor Golden State by only 3 ½ points in this game but I am a bit concerned that the Raptors may have a tough time going to the emotional and physical well again after expending themselves in trying to win at Cleveland last night. Toronto has covered the spread 8 consecutive times playing the 2^nd game of back-to-back nights and the Raptors tend to play well at home against other good teams. In fact, Toronto is 11-4 straight up and 12-2-1 ATS since the beginning of last season at home from -3 to dog (i.e. against teams equal or better than them). That includes last season’s 3 point home loss to the Warriors as a 7 point home underdog. There is enough value for me to make this a Best Bet but I’m still a bit concerned about Toronto’s ability to get emotionally up for this game. But, that’s been factored into the line, which has gone up by 1 ½ points from where it opened. So, I’m confident that this is a positive EV play and I’ll lean with Toronto plus the points.

NBA Guru Selections

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Golden State -6 STRONG OPINION

Team Stats
Game Log

Golden State Warriors
Toronto Raptors

GSW

Avg

Def

Off

Efficiency 110.3 108.1 105.6
Pace 101.9 101.9 96.7

4
Factors

eFG % 53.4% 49.6% 49.6%
D reb % 72.1% 78.0% 76.8%
O reb % 22.0% 27.9% 23.2%
TO % 15.7% 14.2% 14.6%
Free Throw Rate 27.2% 26.0% 28.3%

Skill

2Pt % 58.1% 48.7% 49.1%
3Pt % 30.3% 34.5% 33.8%
3pt Rate 34.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Assist Rate 67.9% 57.2% 56.9%
Non-Steal Turnovers 5.9% 4.3% 6.1%
Foul Rate 18.7% 20.5% 21.9%

Hustle

2nd Chance Rate 9.1% 13.3% 12.8%
Steal Rate 10.0% 9.8% 8.5%
Block Rate 6.3% 5.9% 5.9%
Paint Points 44.6% 43.1% 42.3%
Fast Break 17.1% 14.8% 12.8%

GAME LOG					FOUR FACTORS				SKILL				HUSTLE
Date	Opp	Score	Efficiency	Pace	eFG %	Off rebound %	TO %	FT Rate	3pt Rate	Assist Rate	Non-Steal Turnover	Foul Rate	2nd Chance Rate	Steal Rate	Block Rate	Paint Points	Fast Break
2016-10-25	SAS	100 – 129 L	101.8 / 131.3	98.3	51.2% / 54.1%	19.0% / 43.8%	16.3% / 13.2%	21.2% / 26.5%	38.8% / 24.5%	60.0% / 53.2%	3.1% / 2.0%	19.3% / 19.3%	4.0% / 20.2%	11.2% / 13.2%	6.1% / 3.5%	48.0% / 38.8%	20.0% / 18.6%
2016-10-28	@NOP	122 – 114 W	113.2 / 105.8	107.7	53.3% / 49.5%	19.6% / 23.1%	13.0% / 12.1%	30.8% / 23.0%	30.8% / 22.0%	72.7% / 61.7%	5.6% / 4.6%	20.4% / 22.3%	4.1% / 11.4%	7.4% / 7.4%	2.0% / 6.6%	44.3% / 54.4%	18.0% / 8.8%
2016-10-30	@PHX	106 – 100 W	105.4 / 99.4	100.6	47.0% / 45.6%	15.2% / 23.4%	14.9% / 10.9%	39.8% / 27.8%	34.9% / 25.6%	77.1% / 51.4%	5.0% / 5.0%	22.9% / 25.9%	8.5% / 13.0%	6.0% / 9.9%	5.6% / 7.2%	26.4% / 44.0%	17.0% / 19.0%
2016-11-01	@POR	127 – 104 W	120.6 / 98.8	105.3	61.8% / 51.2%	21.2% / 13.6%	15.2% / 17.1%	25.8% / 24.4%	29.2% / 45.3%	72.0% / 62.2%	3.8% / 3.8%	18.0% / 16.1%	3.9% / 6.7%	13.3% / 11.4%	4.7% / 4.5%	47.2% / 26.9%	17.3% / 12.5%
2016-11-03	OKC	122 – 96 W	126.0 / 99.2	96.8	58.9% / 46.0%	36.4% / 29.5%	15.5% / 16.5%	22.2% / 32.2%	33.3% / 31.0%	58.7% / 57.1%	7.2% / 7.2%	18.6% / 20.7%	18.9% / 14.6%	9.3% / 8.3%	16.1% / 7.8%	45.9% / 39.6%	9.8% / 19.8%
2016-11-04	@LAL	97 – 117 L	94.7 / 114.2	102.5	48.3% / 51.6%	20.5% / 34.0%	19.5% / 15.6%	23.3% / 22.1%	37.2% / 31.6%	66.7% / 57.8%	10.7% / 2.9%	12.7% / 18.5%	15.5% / 13.7%	12.7% / 8.8%	3.2% / 5.8%	55.7% / 54.7%	20.6% / 10.3%

GAME LOG					FOUR FACTORS				SKILL				HUSTLE
Date	Opp	Score	Efficiency	Pace	eFG %	Off rebound %	TO %	FT Rate	3pt Rate	Assist Rate	Non-Steal Turnover	Foul Rate	2nd Chance Rate	Steal Rate	Block Rate	Paint Points	Fast Break
2016-10-26	DET	109 – 91 W	114.5 / 95.6	95.2	49.4% / 44.0%	30.4% / 17.8%	11.6% / 13.7%	33.7% / 26.2%	20.9% / 26.2%	41.5% / 48.6%	3.2% / 5.3%	23.1% / 25.2%	7.3% / 6.6%	8.4% / 8.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	49.5% / 44.0%	5.5% / 17.6%
2016-10-28	CLE	91 – 94 L	96.9 / 100.1	93.9	41.1% / 49.4%	36.7% / 21.4%	19.2% / 18.1%	20.0% / 27.8%	17.8% / 40.5%	34.3% / 60.6%	10.6% / 8.5%	21.3% / 16.0%	23.1% / 18.1%	9.6% / 8.5%	3.8% / 3.3%	41.8% / 29.8%	22.0% / 5.3%
2016-10-31	DEN	105 – 102 W	114.9 / 111.6	91.4	48.9% / 46.3%	23.9% / 25.6%	7.7% / 8.8%	28.4% / 43.2%	18.2% / 27.2%	39.0% / 42.4%	5.5% / 1.1%	30.6% / 19.7%	11.4% / 8.8%	7.7% / 2.2%	11.1% / 10.2%	55.2% / 45.1%	10.5% / 15.7%
2016-11-02	@WAS	113 – 103 W	118.0 / 107.6	95.7	62.3% / 60.4%	11.8% / 18.2%	13.6% / 20.9%	32.5% / 33.3%	32.5% / 13.9%	48.8% / 50.0%	5.2% / 4.2%	25.1% / 20.9%	8.0% / 9.7%	16.7% / 8.4%	2.8% / 6.5%	24.8% / 66.0%	8.0% / 14.6%
2016-11-04	MIA	96 – 87 W	104.2 / 94.5	92.1	47.6% / 43.8%	29.5% / 24.5%	16.3% / 14.1%	21.4% / 17.0%	29.8% / 31.8%	37.8% / 55.9%	5.4% / 6.5%	17.4% / 23.9%	10.4% / 16.1%	7.6% / 10.9%	5.7% / 6.0%	41.7% / 46.0%	17.7% / 13.8%
2016-11-06	SAC	91 – 96 L	106.1 / 111.9	85.8	39.9% / 46.8%	27.7% / 30.2%	7.0% / 10.5%	36.9% / 39.7%	35.7% / 20.5%	73.3% / 61.8%	2.3% / 3.5%	30.3% / 25.6%	14.3% / 19.8%	7.0% / 4.7%	6.4% / 6.0%	33.0% / 54.2%	15.4% / 8.3%

Golden State Warriors @

Toronto Raptors

Wed, Nov 16

ESPN

5:00 PM Pacific

Dr Bob Analysis

NBA Guru Selections