Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic Matchup Analysis

Dr Bob Analysis

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Opinion – Denver (-2) over ORLANDO

Rotation #501 – 4:05 pm Pacific

This is a tough scheduling spot for Orlando, who are playing their 4^th game in 5 nights and 5^th in 7. After 3 inspiring road wins the Magic have lost their last two games by a total of 51 points and tonight they apply to a negative 17-60 ATS subset of a 73-130-3 ATS scheduling situation. Denver is coming off a tough loss at Washington, which they led most of the way despite horribly random 7 for 32 3-point shooting. My ratings favor Denver by 2 ½ points with Wilson Chandler out for the Nuggets, so the line is fair, and I’ll lean with Denver based on the situation.

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Team Stats
Game Log

Denver Nuggets
Orlando Magic

DEN

Avg

Def

Off

Efficiency 106.7 109.3 107.7
Pace 98.3 98.3 95.9

4
Factors

eFG % 49.2% 51.0% 50.5%
D reb % 79.8% 71.9% 76.8%
O reb % 28.1% 20.2% 23.2%
TO % 16.2% 11.7% 14.1%
Free Throw Rate 30.8% 28.3% 27.6%

Skill

2Pt % 47.6% 50.3% 49.5%
3Pt % 35.8% 34.5% 35.1%
3pt Rate 29.4% 27.9% 31.1%
Assist Rate 55.7% 55.3% 57.3%
Non-Steal Turnovers 7.0% 5.2% 6.0%
Foul Rate 21.1% 22.3% 21.0%

Hustle

2nd Chance Rate 14.7% 10.8% 12.7%
Steal Rate 6.5% 9.2% 8.1%
Block Rate 4.8% 6.5% 5.8%
Paint Points 43.8% 42.9% 41.1%
Fast Break 12.8% 13.3% 12.5%

ORL

Avg

Def

Off

Efficiency 101.1 106.7 107.7
Pace 93.8 93.8 95.9

4
Factors

eFG % 47.5% 49.4% 50.5%
D reb % 76.7% 78.4% 76.8%
O reb % 21.6% 23.3% 23.2%
TO % 13.1% 12.6% 14.1%
FT Rate 25.3% 24.1% 27.6%

Skill

2Pt % 46.4% 48.7% 49.5%
3Pt % 33.6% 34.2% 35.1%
3pt Rate 29.8% 27.6% 31.1%
Assist Rate 58.8% 56.2% 57.3%
Non-Steal Turnovers 5.7% 5.6% 6.0%
Foul Rate 19.2% 19.9% 21.0%

Hustle

2nd Chance Rate 13.3% 14.0% 12.7%
Steal Rate 6.9% 7.4% 8.1%
Block Rate 6.7% 6.6% 5.8%
Paint Points 40.3% 44.6% 41.1%
Fast Break 13.1% 11.7% 12.5%

*Record: 9 – 15

GAME LOG					FOUR FACTORS				SKILL				HUSTLE
Date	Opp	Score	Efficiency	Pace	eFG %	Off rebound %	TO %	FT Rate	3pt Rate	Assist Rate	Non-Steal Turnover	Foul Rate	2nd Chance Rate	Steal Rate	Block Rate	Paint Points	Fast Break
2016-10-26	@NOP	107 – 102 W	99.8 / 95.1	107.3	49.4% / 42.9%	27.5% / 9.6%	22.4% / 10.3%	39.8% / 28.3%	28.9% / 20.7%	48.6% / 81.6%	7.5% / 3.7%	20.5% / 27.0%	13.1% / 2.9%	6.5% / 14.9%	2.2% / 6.0%	46.7% / 49.0%	10.3% / 14.7%
2016-10-29	POR	113 – 115 L	98.5 / 100.3	103.9	41.0% / 51.0%	28.6% / 10.0%	14.8% / 13.1%	39.0% / 21.4%	23.0% / 32.7%	50.0% / 51.1%	6.1% / 4.4%	18.3% / 26.2%	23.0% / 3.5%	8.7% / 8.7%	5.1% / 8.0%	46.0% / 40.0%	15.0% / 11.3%
2016-10-31	@TOR	102 – 105 L	111.6 / 114.9	91.4	46.3% / 48.9%	25.6% / 23.9%	8.8% / 7.7%	43.2% / 28.4%	27.2% / 18.2%	42.4% / 39.0%	1.1% / 5.5%	19.7% / 30.6%	8.8% / 11.4%	2.2% / 7.7%	10.2% / 11.1%	45.1% / 55.2%	15.7% / 10.5%
2016-11-03	@MIN	102 – 99 W	101.6 / 98.7	100.3	51.9% / 44.9%	19.4% / 27.5%	19.9% / 15.9%	30.9% / 28.4%	27.2% / 25.0%	61.5% / 57.1%	12.0% / 6.0%	23.9% / 21.9%	14.7% / 15.2%	10.0% / 8.0%	3.4% / 4.9%	56.9% / 48.5%	18.6% / 10.1%
2016-11-05	@DET	86 – 103 L	88.7 / 106.2	97.0	36.7% / 52.4%	29.1% / 20.0%	16.5% / 13.4%	21.3% / 26.5%	26.6% / 24.1%	48.4% / 55.0%	7.2% / 5.2%	15.5% / 16.5%	19.8% / 11.7%	8.2% / 9.3%	1.2% / 9.6%	39.5% / 38.8%	8.1% / 13.6%
2016-11-06	@BOS	123 – 107 W	122.6 / 106.7	100.3	58.9% / 50.0%	24.3% / 22.4%	16.9% / 11.0%	36.9% / 23.3%	27.4% / 27.8%	47.7% / 75.6%	14.0% / 4.0%	22.9% / 23.9%	12.2% / 6.5%	7.0% / 3.0%	6.7% / 6.0%	40.7% / 48.6%	5.7% / 15.0%
2016-11-08	@MEM	107 – 108 L	108.7 / 109.7	98.5	57.1% / 55.2%	20.0% / 19.5%	22.3% / 14.2%	48.6% / 22.1%	34.3% / 27.9%	68.6% / 65.9%	8.1% / 8.1%	23.4% / 30.5%	17.8% / 7.4%	6.1% / 14.2%	4.7% / 7.1%	31.8% / 53.7%	19.6% / 9.3%
2016-11-10	GSW	101 – 125 L	102.7 / 127.0	98.4	47.3% / 62.4%	32.7% / 25.0%	18.3% / 15.2%	18.1% / 23.5%	38.3% / 35.3%	68.4% / 71.7%	3.0% / 8.1%	18.3% / 18.3%	16.8% / 13.6%	7.1% / 15.2%	3.5% / 6.4%	45.5% / 43.2%	11.9% / 20.0%
2016-11-12	DET	95 – 106 L	105.6 / 117.8	90.0	48.2% / 53.3%	35.0% / 28.2%	16.7% / 10.0%	22.6% / 15.6%	29.8% / 20.0%	41.7% / 50.0%	4.4% / 3.3%	15.6% / 17.8%	20.0% / 19.8%	6.7% / 12.2%	4.4% / 1.2%	48.4% / 49.1%	6.3% / 15.1%
2016-11-13	@POR	105 – 112 L	103.4 / 110.3	101.6	45.6% / 43.4%	34.8% / 24.6%	17.7% / 6.9%	31.9% / 32.3%	31.9% / 29.3%	30.6% / 53.8%	9.8% / 3.0%	24.6% / 22.6%	15.2% / 14.3%	3.9% / 7.9%	6.1% / 8.8%	34.3% / 35.7%	8.6% / 15.2%
2016-11-16	PHX	120 – 104 W	120.6 / 104.6	99.5	52.7% / 54.4%	33.3% / 16.7%	14.1% / 16.1%	25.8% / 36.7%	18.3% / 25.3%	51.1% / 35.9%	6.0% / 8.0%	24.1% / 29.2%	11.7% / 6.7%	8.0% / 8.0%	5.1% / 4.3%	46.7% / 40.4%	12.5% / 7.7%
2016-11-18	TOR	111 – 113 L	100.8 / 102.7	99.7	49.4% / 50.0%	19.1% / 12.5%	17.3% / 10.9%	47.0% / 33.0%	30.1% / 24.5%	74.4% / 53.5%	10.0% / 3.6%	23.6% / 22.7%	9.9% / 4.4%	7.3% / 7.3%	3.2% / 2.4%	46.8% / 51.3%	18.9% / 10.6%
2016-11-20	UTA	105 – 91 W	114.8 / 99.5	91.5	53.5% / 42.9%	25.5% / 27.5%	8.7% / 10.9%	34.9% / 27.1%	25.6% / 30.6%	73.8% / 45.5%	5.5% / 6.6%	20.8% / 24.1%	9.5% / 12.1%	4.4% / 3.3%	2.4% / 7.0%	51.4% / 50.5%	5.7% / 14.3%
2016-11-22	CHI	110 – 107 W	113.1 / 110.0	97.3	48.0% / 48.4%	30.9% / 20.8%	10.3% / 6.2%	17.0% / 18.9%	22.0% / 18.9%	60.5% / 51.2%	4.1% / 1.0%	14.4% / 18.5%	19.1% / 15.9%	5.1% / 6.2%	6.3% / 11.0%	54.5% / 44.9%	17.3% / 15.9%
2016-11-23	@UTA	83 – 108 L	84.4 / 109.8	98.3	36.9% / 54.4%	23.0% / 10.3%	10.2% / 14.2%	35.2% / 39.2%	30.7% / 32.9%	50.0% / 48.7%	6.1% / 9.2%	22.4% / 25.4%	18.1% / 7.4%	5.1% / 4.1%	6.3% / 3.4%	36.1% / 48.1%	6.0% / 8.3%
2016-11-25	OKC	129 – 132 L	115.4 / 118.1	101.2	53.5% / 57.4%	28.3% / 15.6%	14.3% / 11.6%	26.7% / 30.5%	33.7% / 27.4%	70.8% / 60.4%	4.5% / 2.7%	18.8% / 18.8%	15.5% / 9.1%	8.9% / 9.8%	7.4% / 4.0%	48.1% / 37.9%	10.1% / 15.9%
2016-11-27	@PHX	120 – 114 W	116.4 / 110.6	103.1	51.1% / 46.6%	21.3% / 18.8%	11.6% / 10.7%	36.0% / 40.4%	32.6% / 28.1%	53.8% / 30.6%	6.8% / 5.8%	24.3% / 23.3%	8.3% / 14.0%	4.9% / 4.9%	1.1% / 7.9%	33.3% / 24.6%	15.0% / 21.9%
2016-11-30	MIA	98 – 106 L	97.2 / 105.1	100.8	45.6% / 48.9%	27.5% / 21.2%	18.8% / 6.0%	26.4% / 28.0%	24.2% / 25.8%	73.7% / 63.4%	5.0% / 3.0%	20.8% / 24.8%	12.2% / 11.3%	3.0% / 13.9%	7.5% / 7.7%	55.1% / 52.8%	20.4% / 19.8%
2016-12-02	HOU	110 – 128 L	113.0 / 131.5	97.3	49.5% / 60.1%	43.4% / 29.3%	16.4% / 11.3%	15.7% / 28.1%	29.4% / 41.6%	47.8% / 55.6%	5.1% / 6.2%	20.6% / 14.4%	21.8% / 13.3%	5.1% / 11.3%	3.4% / 6.9%	54.5% / 42.2%	16.4% / 12.5%
2016-12-03	@UTA	98 – 105 L	106.8 / 114.5	91.7	52.4% / 50.6%	17.5% / 18.9%	15.3% / 9.8%	16.9% / 35.9%	28.9% / 32.1%	51.4% / 57.1%	6.5% / 2.2%	22.9% / 14.2%	8.2% / 14.3%	7.6% / 8.7%	6.4% / 3.6%	38.8% / 34.3%	14.3% / 7.6%
2016-12-05	@PHI	106 – 98 W	107.9 / 99.8	98.2	52.6% / 47.1%	23.8% / 25.5%	19.3% / 17.3%	44.7% / 26.7%	35.5% / 36.0%	48.6% / 57.1%	7.1% / 4.1%	20.4% / 25.5%	8.5% / 19.4%	13.2% / 12.2%	9.3% / 13.2%	26.4% / 28.6%	19.8% / 7.1%
2016-12-07	@BKN	111 – 116 L	110.2 / 115.2	100.7	45.2% / 53.5%	44.8% / 23.8%	16.9% / 14.9%	20.0% / 36.5%	35.2% / 30.6%	42.9% / 43.9%	6.0% / 7.9%	23.8% / 18.9%	30.6% / 12.1%	7.0% / 10.9%	2.4% / 4.8%	37.8% / 50.0%	11.7% / 19.0%
2016-12-08	@WAS	85 – 92 L	89.7 / 97.1	94.8	45.4% / 48.7%	34.1% / 20.5%	28.5% / 19.0%	31.6% / 21.8%	42.1% / 24.4%	77.4% / 60.0%	16.9% / 10.6%	25.3% / 21.1%	4.7% / 7.6%	8.4% / 11.6%	2.6% / 3.9%	32.9% / 32.6%	14.1% / 16.3%
2016-12-10	@ORL	121 – 113 W	126.3 / 117.9	95.8	61.4% / 55.1%	25.7% / 12.5%	12.5% / 5.2%	30.1% / 27.3%	22.9% / 30.7%	53.2% / 62.8%	5.2% / 3.1%	20.9% / 18.8%	14.0% / 6.2%	2.1% / 7.3%	4.5% / 6.0%	52.9% / 30.1%	5.8% / 8.0%

*Record: 10 – 15

GAME LOG					FOUR FACTORS				SKILL				HUSTLE
Date	Opp	Score	Efficiency	Pace	eFG %	Off rebound %	TO %	FT Rate	3pt Rate	Assist Rate	Non-Steal Turnover	Foul Rate	2nd Chance Rate	Steal Rate	Block Rate	Paint Points	Fast Break
2016-10-26	MIA	96 – 108 L	101.7 / 114.4	94.4	42.0% / 50.5%	28.0% / 34.8%	11.7% / 10.6%	31.8% / 16.5%	19.3% / 16.5%	58.8% / 57.4%	6.4% / 5.3%	15.9% / 23.3%	18.8% / 21.3%	5.3% / 5.3%	4.1% / 8.0%	37.5% / 68.5%	8.3% / 13.9%
2016-10-28	@DET	82 – 108 L	86.1 / 113.3	95.3	38.9% / 54.2%	24.1% / 23.1%	9.4% / 12.6%	12.6% / 6.3%	27.4% / 20.0%	60.6% / 56.3%	1.0% / 4.2%	13.6% / 11.5%	14.6% / 13.0%	8.4% / 8.4%	3.2% / 4.2%	43.9% / 55.6%	22.0% / 13.0%
2016-10-29	@CLE	99 – 105 L	102.6 / 108.8	96.5	50.0% / 47.2%	32.5% / 26.0%	20.7% / 9.3%	31.0% / 34.1%	33.3% / 42.0%	55.3% / 47.2%	12.4% / 3.1%	23.8% / 28.0%	25.3% / 14.3%	6.2% / 8.3%	5.7% / 7.1%	48.5% / 30.5%	8.1% / 6.7%
2016-11-01	@PHI	103 – 101 W	108.4 / 106.3	95.0	48.4% / 54.3%	25.5% / 20.6%	10.5% / 15.8%	18.3% / 19.5%	26.9% / 25.6%	69.0% / 70.0%	5.3% / 8.4%	15.8% / 21.1%	15.5% / 16.8%	7.4% / 5.3%	7.3% / 8.6%	58.3% / 39.6%	18.4% / 11.9%
2016-11-03	SAC	102 – 94 W	112.9 / 104.1	90.3	51.2% / 51.9%	31.7% / 26.2%	15.5% / 15.5%	27.4% / 21.3%	35.7% / 22.5%	63.2% / 44.7%	6.6% / 10.0%	15.5% / 25.5%	22.5% / 13.8%	5.5% / 8.9%	5.0% / 1.2%	37.3% / 53.2%	13.7% / 8.5%
2016-11-05	WAS	88 – 86 W	102.4 / 100.1	85.9	45.5% / 43.0%	22.2% / 29.8%	9.3% / 11.6%	34.6% / 19.8%	35.9% / 19.8%	67.7% / 32.4%	4.7% / 7.0%	18.6% / 26.8%	14.8% / 23.3%	4.7% / 4.7%	7.0% / 6.4%	36.4% / 41.9%	25.0% / 3.5%
2016-11-07	@CHI	80 – 112 L	85.1 / 119.2	94.0	44.1% / 48.9%	12.8% / 31.3%	14.9% / 8.5%	7.1% / 34.8%	35.3% / 21.3%	84.8% / 61.9%	7.4% / 2.1%	24.5% / 11.7%	6.3% / 12.5%	6.4% / 7.4%	7.9% / 4.7%	40.0% / 53.6%	13.8% / 20.5%
2016-11-09	MIN	107 – 123 L	115.8 / 133.2	92.4	49.4% / 59.2%	25.5% / 26.3%	9.7% / 6.5%	35.3% / 29.9%	28.2% / 26.4%	52.6% / 60.0%	1.1% / 4.3%	20.6% / 24.9%	18.7% / 15.4%	2.2% / 8.7%	5.7% / 5.9%	46.7% / 34.1%	14.0% / 8.1%
2016-11-11	UTA	74 – 87 L	83.3 / 98.0	88.8	38.5% / 45.1%	16.7% / 25.5%	13.5% / 16.9%	24.4% / 19.8%	25.6% / 34.6%	50.0% / 57.6%	3.4% / 4.5%	20.3% / 20.3%	14.9% / 14.9%	12.4% / 10.1%	7.4% / 9.0%	40.5% / 43.7%	25.7% / 9.2%
2016-11-13	@OKC	119 – 117 W	123.6 / 121.5	96.3	59.9% / 54.9%	21.1% / 28.6%	9.3% / 10.4%	23.3% / 28.3%	27.9% / 27.2%	52.2% / 46.8%	5.2% / 6.2%	20.8% / 19.7%	6.7% / 16.2%	4.2% / 4.2%	7.6% / 7.0%	43.7% / 54.7%	7.6% / 17.1%
2016-11-14	@IND	69 – 88 L	73.7 / 94.0	93.6	35.1% / 43.3%	17.6% / 14.0%	15.0% / 9.6%	15.5% / 11.1%	29.8% / 27.8%	44.4% / 62.9%	5.3% / 6.4%	18.2% / 15.0%	13.0% / 14.8%	3.2% / 9.6%	5.6% / 10.7%	55.1% / 43.2%	2.9% / 11.4%
2016-11-16	NOP	89 – 82 W	94.2 / 86.8	94.4	44.3% / 40.9%	25.0% / 19.6%	12.7% / 18.0%	21.6% / 23.2%	30.7% / 25.6%	50.0% / 63.3%	7.4% / 10.6%	15.9% / 16.9%	18.0% / 12.2%	7.4% / 5.3%	8.5% / 10.2%	42.7% / 31.7%	16.9% / 13.4%
2016-11-19	DAL	95 – 87 W	100.8 / 92.3	94.2	48.7% / 42.2%	25.6% / 11.1%	20.2% / 13.8%	28.2% / 35.1%	26.9% / 36.4%	50.0% / 50.0%	11.7% / 7.4%	22.3% / 17.0%	11.6% / 6.9%	6.4% / 8.5%	10.4% / 6.4%	33.7% / 18.4%	4.2% / 11.5%
2016-11-21	@MIL	89 – 93 L	89.7 / 93.7	99.2	46.1% / 45.3%	25.0% / 13.7%	24.2% / 13.1%	31.2% / 24.4%	32.5% / 33.7%	65.6% / 71.4%	8.1% / 5.0%	18.1% / 22.2%	19.1% / 8.6%	8.1% / 16.1%	5.8% / 11.7%	42.7% / 47.3%	13.5% / 29.0%
2016-11-23	PHX	87 – 92 L	91.8 / 97.1	94.7	40.1% / 51.4%	22.4% / 15.4%	11.6% / 17.9%	25.3% / 30.1%	27.5% / 30.1%	51.5% / 45.5%	5.3% / 8.4%	20.1% / 21.1%	19.5% / 5.4%	9.5% / 6.3%	11.0% / 7.7%	41.4% / 37.0%	13.8% / 10.9%
2016-11-25	WAS	91 – 94 L	97.8 / 101.0	93.1	48.1% / 48.9%	31.8% / 16.7%	20.4% / 11.8%	25.0% / 11.4%	28.8% / 33.0%	51.4% / 65.0%	9.7% / 6.4%	17.2% / 18.3%	12.1% / 12.8%	5.4% / 10.7%	8.0% / 5.0%	44.0% / 48.9%	7.7% / 8.5%
2016-11-27	MIL	96 – 104 L	101.4 / 109.8	94.7	45.1% / 52.3%	18.9% / 21.7%	7.4% / 11.6%	18.5% / 23.3%	30.4% / 27.9%	63.2% / 58.5%	1.1% / 5.3%	17.9% / 16.9%	4.2% / 11.5%	6.3% / 6.3%	5.8% / 6.5%	43.8% / 53.8%	19.8% / 11.5%
2016-11-29	@SAS	95 – 83 W	102.5 / 89.5	92.7	48.8% / 40.1%	20.5% / 24.4%	14.0% / 19.4%	14.0% / 34.2%	17.4% / 26.3%	64.1% / 67.9%	4.3% / 6.5%	22.7% / 18.3%	7.4% / 15.7%	12.9% / 9.7%	5.3% / 4.7%	40.0% / 38.6%	11.6% / 15.7%
2016-12-01	@MEM	94 – 95 L	100.9 / 102.0	93.2	48.6% / 46.2%	18.4% / 18.6%	18.2% / 10.7%	41.9% / 35.4%	32.4% / 22.8%	45.5% / 54.5%	8.6% / 5.4%	20.4% / 26.8%	10.6% / 7.4%	5.4% / 9.7%	12.7% / 12.2%	36.2% / 40.0%	17.0% / 10.5%
2016-12-02	@PHI	105 – 88 W	115.3 / 96.6	91.1	55.8% / 42.6%	18.4% / 27.3%	11.0% / 11.0%	33.3% / 10.5%	33.3% / 33.7%	64.9% / 66.7%	7.7% / 2.2%	22.0% / 19.8%	9.5% / 21.6%	8.8% / 3.3%	3.2% / 7.7%	22.9% / 50.0%	20.0% / 9.1%
2016-12-04	@DET	98 – 92 W	107.6 / 101.0	91.1	57.6% / 50.0%	10.5% / 22.2%	11.0% / 13.2%	17.7% / 15.1%	29.1% / 31.4%	54.8% / 42.1%	2.2% / 4.4%	12.1% / 13.2%	4.1% / 14.1%	8.8% / 8.8%	8.1% / 3.8%	40.8% / 45.7%	7.1% / 12.0%
2016-12-06	@WAS	124 – 116 W	123.5 / 115.5	100.4	59.0% / 53.2%	20.0% / 22.2%	11.0% / 10.0%	43.4% / 25.8%	31.3% / 24.7%	55.8% / 45.5%	6.0% / 3.0%	17.9% / 24.9%	8.9% / 9.5%	7.0% / 5.0%	14.0% / 2.4%	38.7% / 39.7%	12.1% / 14.7%
2016-12-07	BOS	87 – 117 L	93.2 / 125.4	93.3	43.8% / 55.4%	17.4% / 27.5%	12.9% / 10.7%	29.6% / 34.5%	32.1% / 31.0%	66.7% / 67.4%	5.4% / 3.2%	27.9% / 20.4%	17.2% / 16.2%	7.5% / 7.5%	1.2% / 4.9%	29.9% / 49.6%	8.0% / 6.0%
2016-12-09	@CHA	88 – 109 L	94.2 / 116.6	93.5	42.3% / 53.5%	16.4% / 29.5%	8.6% / 12.8%	15.4% / 27.1%	37.4% / 25.9%	64.7% / 56.1%	4.3% / 6.4%	18.2% / 13.9%	13.6% / 18.3%	6.4% / 4.3%	2.4% / 5.5%	34.1% / 44.0%	9.1% / 10.1%
2016-12-10	DEN	113 – 121 L	117.9 / 126.3	95.8	55.1% / 61.4%	12.5% / 25.7%	5.2% / 12.5%	27.3% / 30.1%	30.7% / 22.9%	62.8% / 53.2%	3.1% / 5.2%	18.8% / 20.9%	6.2% / 14.0%	7.3% / 2.1%	6.0% / 4.5%	30.1% / 52.9%	8.0% / 5.8%

Denver Nuggets @

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Sat, Dec 10

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4:00 PM Pacific

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