Dr Bob Basketball
My Basketball Best Bets (College and NBA) are a very profitable +406.2 Stars (at -110 odds) the last 20 years and I’m 54.2% winners on my Basketball Best Bets over 30 years for an average profit of +30 Stars.
Last basketball season was by far my worst season in any sport in my 29 years as a professional handicapper (just 300-315-13 on Best Bets) and the NBA was the culprit. As I mentioned above regarding the NBA Guru, the patterns that have existed for decades in the NBA suddenly reversed themselves last season (the NBA situations were just 255-287-9 after being 53.5% the 12 prior seasons) and the ‘line value’ plays based on my player-specific ratings were just 179-163-6 last season (although 110-82-1 from mid-January on).
The problem was that the line value plays that I passed on because a significant situation favored the other side were 58% while the ones I played were just 48%, which is pretty bad selection luck. Most of the line value plays I passed on were posted as opinions and NBA Opinions were 69-46-2 (60%) last season.
What I learned during my analysis of my methods is that the NBA situations no longer deserve nearly as much weight as I’ve been giving them and my NBA ‘line value’ plays tend to work much better from January on. Overall the NBA ‘line value’ plays, which are games that my player-specific ratings show a significant difference from the line, are still a very good 567-473-19 (54.5%) – though 2017-18 – and that is what I’ll be basing my NBA plays on this season.
My College Basketball Best Bets were just 163-149-9 last season (150-129-9 after a bad start) and they should have been better given how well my College Basketball methods worked overall.
My College Basketball ‘line value’ plays were a solid 111-95-2 and are 284-236-8 (54.5%) the last 3 seasons while the significant College situations (a 4 or 5 rating on a scale from 1 to 5) are now 854-743-37 (53.5%) over many seasons after going 121-94-7 last season.
Overall, my College Basketball methods worked really well last season but I simply did not release enough games as Best Bets, as the winners happened to be on the games I passed on (i.e. the opinions I released). It was just one of those years when the opinions won (55-41-1, 57.3%) while the Best Bets were just 52.2%. But, at least my methods worked at a profitable level and hopefully those percentages are reversed in the upcoming season.
I will be focusing much more on my College Basketball analysis but will still release NBA plays – but only those plays that qualify as ‘line value’ plays, which have been good – and mostly from January on when my ratings have been particularly profitable.
You can sign up for the Dr. Bob College and NBA Basketball season package for just $895 or the Dr. Bob & NBA Guru Basketball season (prices go down each week during the season).
NBA Guru Basketball
The NBA Guru has a Best Bet record of 647-532-20 (55%) and a profit of +136.0 Stars in 5 seasons with Dr. Bob Sports but last season he did suffer through his first losing season in the 7 years I’ve followed his plays, which include two winning seasons before I brought him on.
The NBA Guru has won in every category over his 5 seasons, going 234-199-5 on full game sides, 222-190-7 on full game totals, 106-86-6 on 1st half sides and 84-57-2 on 1st half totals.
Last season was an incredibly strange season in the NBA, as patterns that have existed for years suddenly reversed. That’s happened on occasion in other sports too and the next season usually goes back to normal. I expect the NBA Guru to bounce back strong, just as he did in the 2014-15 season (106-69-7 for 60.6% winners) after a down season in 2013-14 (196-177-6).
For more details, you can visit the NBA Guru Past Performance Page.
I post Free Analysis in basketball on most days and my Basketball Free Analysis is 266-221-10 (54.6%) the last two seasons (55.0% last season) and is profitable over 10 seasons since I’ve been posting Free Analysis in basketball.
You can check the NBA and College pages for updates or follow me on twitter at @drbobsports to get alerted to updates.
You can view all Basketball and Football subscription packages, including combination packages at a discount, on my all Best Bets page.
If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] (or just reply to this email).