Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **UNLV (-4)  31   Wyoming  19

UNLV is 7-2 straight up and 8-1 ATS with their only two losses being at Michigan (before Jayden Maiava took over at QB) and by just 7 points as a 10.5-point underdog at Fresno State. Wyoming has been decent against the number too (5-3-1 ATS) but the Cowboys have lost all 3 of their road games by 7 points or more and by an average margin of 17.7 points and they’re likely to lose this game by 7 points or more too.

Wyoming has been outgained by 71 yards per game and the Cowboys have struggled offensively with just 5.2 yards per play despite facing a schedule of teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average FBS attack. UNLV’s defense has been 0.6 yppl worse than average for the season and they seem to have finally figured out how to play without star LB/S Jerrae Williams. The Rebels gave up 6.1 yppl to below average offensive teams Hawaii and Nevada in the first two games without Williams but they’ve yielded just 5.5 yppl in their last 3 games against teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. I still make a bit of an adjustment for Williams being out but that adjustment is down to 0.4 points. UNLV’s defense has an advantage over the Cowboys’ offense.

The Rebels struggled offensively in their first couple of games with Doug Brumfield at quarterback, as he averaged just 3.2 yards per pass play in 3 starts before getting replaced by Maiava after bad early play in week 3 against Vanderbilt. Some of that can be excused for facing Michigan’s defense in week 2 but Brumfield only averaged 3.5 yppp against Bryant and Vandy. Maiava has averaged 8.4 yppp since taking over early in week 3 (against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB) and the Rebels rate at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively even with their bad running game. Wyoming’s defense is solid, as the Cowboys have been 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team), and UNLV is at a slight disadvantage in that matchup.

Overall, UNLV had an advantage in compensated yards per play (projected 5.7 yppl to 5.2 yppl at home in this game) and they should run significantly more plays from scrimmage. Wyoming has an average play differential of -11.4 plays (58.4 per game on offense vs 69.8 plays for opponents) and UNLV tends to run more plays their opponents (+4.4 in play differential). A lot of that can be explained by 3rd-down variance (UNLV is +17% in 3rd-down conversion differential while Wyoming is at -9.1%) but I still expect UNLV to be better on 3rd-downs because they have a much better quarterback and because Wyoming plays a bend-but-don’t break style of defense.

The model adjusts for that play differential variance and gives UNLV an overall line of scrimmage advantage of 7.9 points (including home field advantage). However, the Rebels also have a significant edge in hidden yardage due to special teams, as they have very good punt and kickoff units (+6.3 net punting and +2.1 net KO yard line) plus an All-American caliber place-kicker that is 19 of 20 and adds 1.5 points of value per game. The special teams edge is worth a few points in this matchup (Wyoming is -0.7 points in ST rating) and there is significant overall value on the Rebels in this game.

UNLV is a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less and 1-Star to -5 (Strong Opinion -5.5)