Game Analysis

Lean – Wisconsin (-6)  27   Arizona State  17

Wisconsin started the season 1-3 while averaging just 18.5 points per game before freshman back Braelon Allen took over as the main ball-carrier. The Badgers averaged only 4.1 yards per rushing play and just 4.7 yards per play in those first 4 games with Jalen Berger (3.7 ypr) and Chez Mellusi (4.7 ypr) running the ball. Allen ran for 1060 yards at 7.3 ypr over the final 8 games after getting just 12 total carries in the first 4 games and the Badgers won the first 7 games with Allen as the lead back before losing their finale to Minnesota.

The Badgers were 0.7 yards per pass play better than average over those final 8 games while scoring an average of 29.5 points. Arizona State’s defense was 0.8 yppl better than average during the regular season but they’ll be playing this game without both starting cornerbacks and star LB Darien Butler. CB Chase Lucas is not a difference maker in my opinion, but fellow departed CB Jack Jones led the team in passes defended and interceptions while Butler was the #2 tackler, tied for the team lead in total tackles for loss and defended 6 passes (3 of them interceptions), which was #2 on the team and very good for a linebacker. I rate ASU’s defense at 0.5 yppl better than average heading into this game and project 391 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Badgers.

Arizona State’s offense was 0.7 yppl better than average during the regular season but the top two running backs are no longer with the program, as dual-threat back Rachaad White is headed for the NFL while #2 back DeaMonte Trayanum has transferred. Those two combined for 5.4 ypr and new #1 running option Daniyel Ngata has a career 5.6 ypr, so I didn’t adjust the rushing numbers. White’s biggest impact was in the pass game, as he was #2 on the team in receiving yards while averaging 9.3 yards per target at a team high 56% success rate. While White’s absence hurt the pass attack (0.3 yppp adjustment) the return of big play TE Curtis Hodges, who missed most of 4 games after a car accident, makes up for some of that loss. Hodges averaged 13.3 yards per target and should get 3 or 4 targets in this game, possibly more without White as a safety valve out of the backfield.

Wisconsin’s defense was among the nation’s elite, yielding just 16.4 points per game and just 4.2 yppl with their starters in the game this season. The Badgers will be without injured safety Collin Wilder, which his impact isn’t that significant, and the Badgers were a bit better than their 1.6 yppl better than average season rating in the 10 games that 1^st-Team All-American LB Leo Chenal played in. Chenal has 106 tackles, including 17 for a loss (7 of them sacks) despite missing two games. I project just 258 yards at 4.7 yppl for the Sun Devils in this game.

Wisconsin is a better team now than they were during the early part of the season and ASU’s defense isn’t going to be as good without three starters, including two of their best defenders, and my math favors the Badgers by 11.6 points. Wisconsin does apply to a 9-36 ATS bowl situation but I’ll still lean with the Badgers at -6.5 points or less.