Game Analysis

***TOLEDO (-12)  41   Western Michigan  19

Western Michigan’s offense has struggled all season to move the ball (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) and the Chippewas are even worse now with Reece Goddard now starting at quarterback in place of the injured Jon Wassink. Wassink wasn’t great but he was fairly efficient with 64.2% completions on mostly short passes, which complimented a decent rush attack (5.2 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp). Goddard is significantly worse, as he’s completed just 46.3% of his passes in just over 3 games while averaging a pathetic 4.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB). The Broncos don’t appear to be much worse offensively when you look at their scoring but last week’s 31 points was a function of 3 Northern Illinois fumbles that set them up in the redzone for easy scoring chances and the 48 points they scored against Kent State the week before was due to 3 defensive touchdowns. Western Michigan is a bad offensive team with Goddard at quarterback and I don’t see how they can keep up with Toledo’s potent attack in this game.

Toledo quarterback Logan Woodside is one of the best passers in the nation even after adjusting for schedule strength, as he’s averaged 9.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp while throwing just 2 interceptions in 11 games. Toledo also averages 235 rushing yards per game at 6.0 yprp and Western Michigan is terrible against the run (5.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average only 4.4 yprp) and bad defending the pass as well (6.6 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average only 5.7 yppp against an average defense). My math model projects 40 points for the Toledo in this game, which is certainly reasonable given that the Rockets are averaging 39 points per game this season against teams with a combined defensive rating that is 0.5 yppl better than the Western Michigan defense. Toledo’s defense is pretty good by MAC standards, rating at just 0.2 yppl worse than average on a national scale, which is better than the average defense that the Broncos have faced.

Toledo can wrap up a trip to the MAC Championship game with a win in this game and I think the Rockets will win easily based on my math. Toledo also applies to a 75-22 ATS home favorite momentum situation. I’ll take Toledo in a 3-Star Best Bet at -13.5 or less and for 2-Stars at -14.