Game Analysis
Lean – CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-10) 31 Western Michigan 17
Central Michigan’s offense has perked up since rotating in their two running quarterbacks to compliment starter Daniel Richardson, who is not performing as well as he did as a freshman last season. Jase Bauer ran for 244 yards on 27 runs in weeks 8 and 10 and freshman Bert Emmanuel Jr. tallied a ridiculous 305 rushing yards on 23 runs in last week’s win over Buffalo when Bauer was out with injury.
I won’t assume a repeat of that performance, and having RB Lew Nichols back from injury this week is likely going to be a negative, as he and his 3.5 yards per run will take away carries from the explosive backup quarterbacks. I’ve factored that in, however, and my math still likes Central Michigan, as the impotent Western Michigan offense (1.3 yards per play worse than average) is projected at just 297 total yards and 4.6 yppl.
I’ll lean with Central Michigan at -10 or less.
- Western Mich
- Central Mich
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.6
32.9
-
Run Yards
146.2
160.0
-
YPRP
4.4
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
15.3
17.8
-
Pass Att
29.5
29.0
-
Comp %
51.9%
61.4%
-
Pass Yards
183.2
220.5
-
Sacks
3.4
2.4
-
Sack Yards
20.4
15.4
-
Sack %
10.3%
7.6%
-
Pass Plays
32.9
31.4
-
Net Pass Yards
162.8
205.1
-
YPPP
4.9
6.5
Total
-
Total Plays
66.5
64.3
-
Total Yards
309.0
365.1
-
YPPL
4.6
5.7
TO
-
Int
1.2
0.7
-
Int %
4.1%
2.4%
-
Fumbles
0.7
1.2
-
Turnovers
1.9
1.9
Rush
-
Run Plays
34.5
35.2
-
Run Yards
175.5
164.1
-
YPRP
5.1
4.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.7
20.0
-
Pass Att
36.2
33.3
-
Comp %
57.2%
60.1%
-
Pass Yards
226.8
233.9
-
Sacks
2.2
2.6
-
Sack Yards
15.2
18.7
-
Sack %
5.7%
7.2%
-
Pass Plays
38.4
35.9
-
Net Pass Yards
211.6
215.2
-
YPPP
5.5
6.0
Total
-
Total Plays
72.9
71.1
-
Total Yards
387.1
379.3
-
YPPL
5.3
5.3
TO
-
Int
0.6
0.4
-
Int %
1.7%
1.2%
-
Fumbles
1.7
0.6
-
Turnovers
2.3
1.0
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/22 @ Michigan St. |
13-35 |
+21.0
L
|
30/31 |
170/200 |
5.7/6.5 |
2/1 |
21/12 |
36/24 |
164/226 |
0/1 |
7/1 |
3.8/9.0 |
334/426 |
4.6/7.6 |
| 09/10/22 @ Ball St. |
37-30 |
-6.5
W
|
43/31 |
207/156 |
4.8/5.0 |
1/1 |
25/23 |
43/40 |
230/290 |
1/0 |
0/0 |
5.3/7.3 |
437/446 |
5.1/6.3 |
| 09/17/22 Pittsburgh |
13-34 |
+11.0
L
|
27/49 |
75/249 |
2.8/5.1 |
0/1 |
7/9 |
19/12 |
114/170 |
3/0 |
2/1 |
5.4/13.1 |
189/419 |
3.9/6.8 |
| 09/24/22 @ San Jose St. |
6-34 |
+7.0
L
|
47/22 |
156/136 |
3.3/6.2 |
0/1 |
8/18 |
13/29 |
51/261 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
3.2/8.7 |
207/397 |
3.3/7.6 |
| 10/01/22 New Hampshire |
44-7 |
0.0
W
|
24/31 |
111/107 |
4.6/3.5 |
0/2 |
13/22 |
23/34 |
245/113 |
1/2 |
1/7 |
10.2/2.8 |
356/220 |
7.4/3.1 |
| 10/08/22 Eastern Mich |
23-45 |
-5.0
L
|
29/37 |
130/138 |
4.5/3.7 |
1/1 |
15/20 |
40/30 |
169/275 |
0/0 |
7/3 |
3.6/8.3 |
299/413 |
3.9/5.9 |
| 10/15/22 Ohio |
14-33 |
-1.5
L
|
26/34 |
120/125 |
4.6/3.7 |
1/1 |
17/22 |
31/34 |
211/257 |
5/1 |
5/1 |
5.9/7.3 |
331/382 |
5.3/5.5 |
| 10/22/22 @ Miami Ohio |
16-10 |
+6.5
W
|
42/21 |
193/124 |
4.6/5.9 |
0/1 |
16/21 |
33/38 |
112/181 |
0/0 |
2/7 |
3.2/4.0 |
305/305 |
4.0/4.6 |
| 11/02/22 @ Bowling Green |
9-13 |
+4.5
W
|
35/28 |
131/145 |
3.7/5.2 |
1/3 |
16/23 |
27/31 |
185/145 |
1/0 |
1/3 |
6.6/4.3 |
316/290 |
5.0/4.7 |
| 11/09/22 Northern Ill |
21-24 |
0.0
L
|
33/45 |
169/220 |
5.1/4.9 |
1/0 |
15/8 |
30/18 |
147/133 |
0/3 |
6/0 |
4.1/7.4 |
316/353 |
4.6/5.6 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/22 @ Oklahoma St. |
44-58 |
+21.5
W
|
37/28 |
137/136 |
3.7/4.9 |
0/0 |
36/28 |
49/41 |
409/399 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
8.0/9.5 |
546/535 |
6.2/7.6 |
| 09/10/22 South Alabama |
24-38 |
-5.0
L
|
24/44 |
99/175 |
4.1/4.0 |
1/0 |
23/26 |
47/42 |
239/327 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
4.8/7.4 |
338/502 |
4.6/5.7 |
| 09/17/22 Bucknell |
41-0 |
0.0
W
|
45/27 |
254/62 |
5.6/2.3 |
1/1 |
16/17 |
33/36 |
210/137 |
1/1 |
0/3 |
6.4/3.5 |
464/199 |
5.9/3.0 |
| 09/24/22 @ Penn St. |
14-33 |
+28.0
W
|
21/30 |
100/176 |
4.8/5.9 |
2/0 |
30/25 |
53/39 |
260/249 |
2/0 |
1/0 |
4.8/6.4 |
360/425 |
4.8/6.2 |
| 10/01/22 @ Toledo |
17-38 |
+6.5
L
|
22/47 |
54/284 |
2.5/6.0 |
3/1 |
25/13 |
46/23 |
231/174 |
0/0 |
4/1 |
4.6/7.3 |
285/458 |
4.0/6.5 |
| 10/08/22 Ball St. |
16-17 |
-7.5
L
|
46/34 |
153/154 |
3.3/4.5 |
2/2 |
19/15 |
40/27 |
194/105 |
0/0 |
3/2 |
4.5/3.6 |
347/259 |
3.9/4.1 |
| 10/15/22 @ Akron |
28-21 |
-13.5
L
|
40/20 |
237/82 |
5.9/4.1 |
1/1 |
13/26 |
21/39 |
126/217 |
0/0 |
2/8 |
5.5/4.6 |
363/299 |
5.8/4.5 |
| 10/22/22 Bowling Green |
18-34 |
-6.0
L
|
23/35 |
152/165 |
6.6/4.7 |
3/0 |
21/18 |
30/21 |
154/204 |
1/0 |
6/6 |
4.3/7.6 |
306/369 |
5.2/6.0 |
| 11/02/22 @ Northern Ill |
35-22 |
+4.5
W
|
53/32 |
253/159 |
4.8/5.0 |
3/1 |
16/13 |
26/33 |
186/157 |
1/1 |
0/1 |
7.2/4.6 |
439/316 |
5.6/4.8 |
| 11/09/22 Buffalo |
31-27 |
+2.0
W
|
34/55 |
316/248 |
9.3/4.5 |
1/0 |
8/19 |
17/32 |
107/183 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
5.9/5.4 |
423/431 |
8.1/4.8 |
Western Mich
@ 
Central Mich