Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *UTEP (+10.5)  28   Western Kentucky  31

UTEP is not a good team but the Miners should be better than they’ve been based on their metrics and they’ve covered in 2 of 3 games with Cade McConnell starting at quarterback with both wins being straight up wins as underdogs. McConnell’s yards per pass play numbers (7.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp) are better than the team but he had one 80-yard TD pass against FIU that has skewed his numbers upwards. However, he’d still be an improvement even if you take out that 80-yard play (6.7 yppp). The Miners’ offense has been 0.3 yards per play worse than average this season and I’ll rate them the same with McConnell. That attack should move the ball pretty well against a Western Kentucky defense that’s been 0.5 yppl worse than average in FBS games and also gave up 382 yards at 6.2 yppl to FCS team Houston Christian.

Western Kentucky should have even better success when they have the ball, as the Hilltoppers have been 0.2 yppl better than average while UTEP has been 0.7 yppl worse than average defensively. However, that defense will be relatively better against a pass-heavy team like Western Kentucky, who runs 66% pass plays, as the Miners’ defensive weakness is against the run (1.4 yprp worse than average) while they’ve been just 0.3 yards per pass play worse than average. Western Kentucky is projected to run the ball more in this game than they usually do (60% pass plays expected instead of 66%) but they won’t fully take advantage of UTEP’s run defense.

Western Kentucky is the better team but the Hilltoppers’ have been 7.3 points worse than average from the line of scrimmage this season while UTEP’s line of scrimmage rating is -10.9 points. WKU has better special teams and is likely to turn the ball over less (worth 2.0 points) but there is no way to justify a double-digit spread.

UTEP is a 1-Star Best Bet at +10 -115 or better.