Western Kentucky @

Troy

Sat, Sep 23
ESPNU
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 403
Odds: Troy -3, Total: 58.5

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *TROY (-3)  34   Western Kentucky  24

I have a 3-Star Best Bet on Troy under 8.5 wins and thus far the Trojans are 0-3 ATS and have lost both games against FBS competition. While I’ve been correct so far in projecting Troy to be worse than the market rated them heading into the season, I think this is a game that the Trojans will win.

Troy has been a bit better than I projected they’d be, as their defense has been better than average in yielding just 5.3 yards per play to Kansas State and James Madison – and only 246 yards at 4.2 yppl in their deceivingly close 48-30 win over Stephen F Austin (SFA would average 4.7 yppl on the road against an average FBS defense). Western Kentucky was very good offensively in 2022 (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) but the new offensive coordinator seems to have derailed that attack even with quarterback Austin Reed back. The Hilltoppers have averaged just 5.8 yppl in 3 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average offensive team and Reed has been 0.3 yards per pass play worse than average in the new scheme. Troy’s defense should contain the Western Kentucky attack while the Trojans’ offense finds success against a horrible Hilltoppers’ defense.

Western Kentucky has given up 6.8 yppl in 3 games against teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense. Allowing 63 points and 9.3 yppl to Ohio State is bad but giving up an average of 411 yards at 5.9 yppl to South Florida and Houston Christian is an indication that the Hilltoppers can’t even stop bad offensive teams from moving the ball (those teams would combine to average just 4.1 yppl against an average FBS defense). Troy has been 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and I still rate that attack at 0.5 yppl worse than average after blending in my prior but the Trojans scored 48 points on 8.4 yppl against Stephen F Austin, whose defense isn’t much worse than Western Kentucky’s defense.

Troy is a 1-Star Best Bet at -3 at -120 odds or better and a Strong Opinion up to -4.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Western Kentucky
  • Troy
WKY
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 26.3 40.7
  • Run Yards 116.3 261.7
  • YPRP 4.4 6.4




Pass





  • Pass Comp 27.3 18.3
  • Pass Att 42.3 29.3
  • Comp % 64.6% 62.5%
  • Pass Yards 286.3 244.7
  • Sacks 0.3 2.3
  • Sack Yards 0.7 13.3
  • Sack % 0.8% 7.4%
  • Pass Plays 42.7 31.7
  • Net Pass Yards 285.7 231.3
  • YPPP 6.7 7.3

Total

  • Total Plays 69.0 72.3
  • Total Yards 402.0 493.0
  • YPPL 5.8 6.8

TO


  • Int 0.3 1.3
  • Int % 0.8% 4.5%
  • Fumbles 0.7 1.3
  • Turnovers 1.0 2.7
 
  • Points 34.3 36.3
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