Game Analysis

Note: Southern Miss is now favored in this game, a line move of 5.5 points since I released the Eagles as a Best Bet. No play at the current line.

1-Star Best Bet – *Southern Miss (+4 -105)  32   Western Kentucky  28

Southern Miss has lost their head coach to Charlie Huff to Memphis but the players have united and intend to finish the season together. Top defensive players, CB Josh Moten has stated his intention to enter the transfer portal but he also said that he has one more game to play with his Southern Miss teammates. Safety Corey Myrick also intends to transfer but there is no word on whether he’ll skip this game.

On the other side, Western Kentucky actually has more key players that have announced their intention to transfer. The defense has a number of key players that could opt out (although I’ll assume they’ll play). DE Harper Holloman, who led the conference in pressures, DB Nazir Ward, who leads the team in passes defended, and nickel back Dylan Flowers are all transferring with no word on whether they’ll play in this game or not. I’ll assume that all players on both sides that are intending to transfer will play, as none of them have stated that they won’t play (except Wright), but Western Kentucky has more players that could not play in this game.

Southern Miss was a better team than Western Kentucky this season thanks to an aggressive defense that allowed just 5.4 yards per play and averaged 1.8 interceptions per game. The Eagles rate at 0.2 yppl worse than average after adjusting for offensive units faced and they’re not going to continue to intercept 5.4% of opposing pass attempts but the Eagles’ passes defended suggest that they are likely to have more interceptions than normal and Western Kentucky quarterback Rodney Tisdale has thrown 6 interceptions on 192 pass attempts. The Hilltoppers are 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively with Tisdale at quarterback and project to gain 426 yards at 5.8 yppl in the perfect dome conditions.

Southern Miss should surpass those numbers, as the Eagles’ offense has been 0.4 yppl worse than average while the Western Kentucky defense has been 0.8 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.0 yppl against an average defense). I projects 437 yards at 6.2 yppl for Southern Miss.

The Eagles are projected to be better from the line of scrimmage and are likely to have a turnover advantage (+0.5 projected TO margin) while having worse special teams (bad kicker while WKU has a good FG kicker. Overall, the math favors Southern Miss by 2 points and the Eagles apply t a 61-18-4 ATS bowl game situation.

Southern Miss is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3.5 or more (Strong Opinion at +3 -115 or better).