Game Analysis
South Alabama (-4.5) 31 Western Kentucky 27
I’ll assume that Western Kentucky quarterback Austin Reed will start this game after withdrawing from the transfer portal last Tuesday. If so, Reed will be returning to play behind an offensive line that will be without two starters (transfer portal), his #2 receiver Daewood Davis (opt out to prepare for NFL draft) and starting TE Joshua Simon. Western Kentucky’s pass-heavy offense averaged close to 500 yards per game at 6.7 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack) but that unit rates at 0.2 yppl better than average after adjusting for the 4 absent starters.
The Hilltoppers will likely throw the ball more often than normal against a good South Alabama defense and playing in a domed stadium also leads to more passing in general. South Alabama is 0.4 yards per pass play better than average defending the pass and I project a modest 6.5 yppp for Western Kentucky even in the perfect dome conditions. Overall, the Hilltoppers are expected to gain 402 yards at 5.8 yppl in this game, which is well below their norm. Western Kentucky averaged just 23.5 points per game against the 4 better than average defensive teams that they faced (Indiana, Troy, UAB, and Auburn) but I project 27 points for the Hilltoppers in this game.
South Alabama’s offense is 0.3 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl) but quarterback Bradley Carter is slightly better than average throwing the ball and he’ll likely throw it more than normal in this game against a Western Kentucky secondary that will be without their best cornerback Kahlef Hailassie, who has declared for the NFL draft and presumably will not play in this game. The Hilltoppers’ defense was 0.1 yppl worse than average this season but I rate that unit at 0.3 yppl worse than average without their top corner and the Jaguars are projected to gain 446 yards at 6.1 yppl in this game.
My math favors South Alabama by 4.5 points with a total of 58.4 total points so this is a pass for me.
- Western Kentucky
- South Alabama
Rush
-
Run Plays
28.5
35.6
-
Run Yards
153.3
174.6
-
YPRP
5.4
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
28.0
21.5
-
Pass Att
43.3
34.3
-
Comp %
64.7%
62.8%
-
Pass Yards
340.2
227.9
-
Sacks
1.0
2.2
-
Sack Yards
6.1
12.8
-
Sack %
2.3%
5.9%
-
Pass Plays
44.3
36.5
-
Net Pass Yards
334.1
215.2
-
YPPP
7.5
5.9
Total
-
Total Plays
72.8
72.1
-
Total Yards
487.4
389.8
-
YPPL
6.7
5.4
TO
-
Int
0.9
1.3
-
Int %
2.0%
3.8%
-
Fumbles
0.7
1.0
-
Turnovers
1.5
2.3
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.1
25.7
-
Run Yards
178.8
109.9
-
YPRP
4.8
4.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.2
20.4
-
Pass Att
32.7
34.8
-
Comp %
64.8%
58.8%
-
Pass Yards
263.3
215.2
-
Sacks
1.8
2.3
-
Sack Yards
11.8
17.3
-
Sack %
5.3%
6.3%
-
Pass Plays
34.5
37.1
-
Net Pass Yards
251.5
197.8
-
YPPP
7.3
5.3
Total
-
Total Plays
71.6
62.8
-
Total Yards
430.3
307.8
-
YPPL
6.0
4.9
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.0
-
Int %
2.5%
2.9%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.2
1.6
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/27/22 Austin Peay |
38-27 |
-33.0
L
|
31/42 |
110/203 |
3.5/4.8 |
0/2 |
20/15 |
34/21 |
280/124 |
1/2 |
0/6 |
8.2/4.6 |
390/327 |
6.0/4.7 |
09/03/22 @ Hawaii |
49-17 |
-16.0
W
|
29/32 |
146/106 |
5.0/3.3 |
1/1 |
22/25 |
31/44 |
271/244 |
1/5 |
0/2 |
8.7/5.3 |
417/350 |
7.0/4.5 |
09/17/22 @ Indiana |
30-33 |
+6.5
W
|
33/32 |
233/140 |
7.1/4.4 |
1/1 |
33/33 |
43/55 |
317/349 |
1/0 |
2/3 |
7.0/6.0 |
550/489 |
7.1/5.4 |
09/24/22 FIU |
73-0 |
-31.0
W
|
26/31 |
186/94 |
7.2/3.0 |
0/1 |
37/19 |
45/36 |
501/79 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
10.9/2.1 |
687/173 |
9.5/2.5 |
10/01/22 Troy |
27-34 |
-5.0
L
|
23/32 |
93/156 |
4.0/4.9 |
1/0 |
39/23 |
56/37 |
380/265 |
1/1 |
5/4 |
6.2/6.5 |
473/421 |
5.6/5.8 |
10/08/22 @ UTSA |
28-31 |
+6.5
W
|
23/42 |
113/214 |
4.9/5.1 |
0/1 |
35/24 |
49/35 |
368/273 |
0/0 |
1/0 |
7.4/7.8 |
481/487 |
6.6/6.3 |
10/15/22 @ Middle Tenn St |
35-17 |
-8.0
W
|
36/24 |
170/92 |
4.7/3.8 |
2/1 |
32/32 |
49/51 |
278/213 |
1/1 |
0/1 |
5.7/4.1 |
448/305 |
5.3/4.0 |
10/21/22 UAB |
20-17 |
-1.5
W
|
40/37 |
239/250 |
6.0/6.8 |
1/3 |
14/9 |
23/13 |
120/142 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
5.0/9.5 |
359/392 |
5.6/7.5 |
10/29/22 North Texas |
13-40 |
-10.0
L
|
28/35 |
163/203 |
5.8/5.8 |
1/0 |
29/23 |
49/31 |
303/338 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
5.9/10.6 |
466/541 |
5.9/8.1 |
11/05/22 @ Charlotte |
59-7 |
-15.0
W
|
16/43 |
137/175 |
8.6/4.1 |
0/1 |
25/22 |
41/35 |
434/238 |
0/2 |
1/4 |
10.3/6.1 |
571/413 |
9.8/5.0 |
11/12/22 Rice |
45-10 |
-13.0
W
|
22/37 |
118/184 |
5.4/5.0 |
1/2 |
23/19 |
33/29 |
377/136 |
1/4 |
0/3 |
11.4/4.3 |
495/320 |
9.0/4.6 |
11/19/22 @ Auburn |
17-41 |
+5.5
L
|
30/39 |
124/265 |
4.1/6.8 |
0/0 |
27/9 |
58/20 |
306/113 |
2/0 |
0/1 |
5.3/5.4 |
430/378 |
4.9/6.3 |
11/26/22 @ Florida Atl. |
32-31 |
-7.5
L
|
33/37 |
161/188 |
4.9/5.1 |
1/0 |
28/27 |
52/39 |
408/283 |
1/0 |
0/0 |
7.8/7.3 |
569/471 |
6.7/6.2 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/03/22 Nicholls State |
48-7 |
0.0
W
|
37/24 |
186/73 |
5.0/3.0 |
0/1 |
26/15 |
35/28 |
361/106 |
0/1 |
2/0 |
9.8/3.8 |
547/179 |
7.4/3.4 |
09/10/22 @ Central Mich |
38-24 |
+5.0
W
|
44/24 |
175/99 |
4.0/4.1 |
0/1 |
26/23 |
42/47 |
327/239 |
1/0 |
2/3 |
7.4/4.8 |
502/338 |
5.7/4.6 |
09/17/22 @ UCLA |
31-32 |
+15.5
W
|
33/35 |
172/169 |
5.2/4.8 |
1/2 |
26/20 |
36/30 |
237/263 |
1/0 |
0/0 |
6.6/8.8 |
409/432 |
5.9/6.6 |
09/24/22 Louisiana Tech |
38-14 |
-13.5
W
|
34/25 |
177/92 |
5.2/3.7 |
0/1 |
17/19 |
25/34 |
212/220 |
1/4 |
1/4 |
8.2/5.8 |
389/312 |
6.5/5.0 |
10/01/22 @ UL Lafayette |
20-17 |
-8.5
L
|
35/28 |
130/186 |
3.7/6.6 |
1/1 |
18/22 |
41/36 |
231/105 |
1/2 |
2/1 |
5.4/2.8 |
361/291 |
4.6/4.5 |
10/15/22 UL Monroe |
41-34 |
-17.0
L
|
37/28 |
212/90 |
5.7/3.2 |
0/0 |
25/20 |
33/27 |
407/348 |
0/1 |
2/3 |
11.6/11.6 |
619/438 |
8.6/7.6 |
10/20/22 Troy |
6-10 |
-3.0
L
|
18/37 |
42/149 |
2.3/4.0 |
0/0 |
29/14 |
40/19 |
207/117 |
1/1 |
3/4 |
4.8/5.1 |
249/266 |
4.1/4.4 |
10/29/22 @ Arkansas St. |
31-3 |
-9.5
W
|
46/15 |
196/24 |
4.3/1.6 |
0/1 |
17/22 |
24/39 |
179/138 |
0/0 |
0/4 |
7.5/3.2 |
375/162 |
5.4/2.8 |
11/05/22 @ Georgia Southern |
38-31 |
-3.5
W
|
49/17 |
354/95 |
7.2/5.6 |
1/0 |
16/26 |
27/45 |
166/271 |
2/1 |
4/1 |
5.4/5.9 |
520/366 |
6.5/5.8 |
11/12/22 Texas State |
38-21 |
-16.5
W
|
36/22 |
120/107 |
3.3/4.9 |
0/0 |
20/24 |
34/42 |
260/123 |
0/1 |
2/3 |
7.2/2.7 |
380/230 |
5.3/3.4 |
11/19/22 @ Southern Miss |
27-20 |
-7.5
L
|
31/31 |
161/113 |
5.2/3.6 |
1/0 |
17/19 |
26/34 |
247/185 |
2/1 |
3/2 |
8.5/5.1 |
408/298 |
6.8/4.4 |
11/26/22 Old Dominion |
27-20 |
-15.5
L
|
45/22 |
220/122 |
4.9/5.5 |
0/0 |
17/21 |
29/36 |
184/259 |
1/0 |
1/3 |
6.1/6.6 |
404/381 |
5.4/6.2 |