Game Analysis

Western Kentucky (-2 ½)  39   LOUISIANA TECH  36

I’m still upset about losing my Best Bet on Western Kentucky a couple of weeks ago against Vanderbilt – a game that the Hilltoppers dominated – but I will not hold that against them. Western Kentucky’s only other loss was to Alabama and the Hilltoppers are a good team, rating at 1.2 yards per play better than average offensively (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl). However, Western Kentucky’s offense has had a lot of big plays, which has skewed their yards per play average up and led to a -9.5 play differential. My line of scrimmage rating, which is a combination of yardage and play differential, rates the Hilltoppers at a more modest 3.6 points better than average from the line of scrimmage with good special teams making them a bit better than that overall.

Louisiana Tech’s best game was actually their season opening 20-21 loss at Arkansas, in which their defense played very well in holding the Hogs to just 4.4 yards per play. The defense has been absent I recent weeks, as the Bulldogs allowed 8.7 yppl to Texas Tech, 7.1 yppl in a loss to Middle Tennessee State, and 6.1 yppl in a very deceiving 28-7 win over UTEP last week. Louisiana Tech now rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively even with that great opening week effort, but the Bulldogs have been very good offensively. Starting quarterback Ryan Higgins missed the Arkansas game but the Bulldogs have averaged 579 yards at 7.7 yards per play in his 4 starts (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and are projected to average a healthy 7.3 yppl in this game.

Overall the math favors Western Kentucky by only ½ a point but the Hilltoppers apply to a very good 61-16-3 ATS statistical matchup indicator that I’d prefer not to go against. I’d pass on the side but the over (68.5) has some value.