Game Analysis

James Madison (-7)  30   Western Kentucky  21

Western Kentucky players have traditionally played in the bowl game under coach Helton after announcing their intention to enter the transfer portal. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has already stated that he’ll be playing in the bowl despite entering the transfer portal and I’ll assume the WR Easton Messer is out – although he may play –  which is a bit of blow given his 9.1 yards per target.  Only two of the many defensive starters that are entering the portal are not listed on the bowl depth chart. In that past the players on the Western Kentucky bowl depth chart have played in the bowl game and I’m going to assume that’s the case for most given that a few transfers, including the backup quarterback Finley are not on the depth chart, which is an indication that it has been updated. It’s certainly possible that some of the guys on the depth chart have since decided to not play but I’m going to assume that they will.

James Madison quarterback Alonza Barnett will not play due to a leg injury and I’ll assume that starting LT Jesse Ramil will not play given that he’s already committed to Mississippi State. Billy Atkins will start at quarterback and he was not good in his only other career starter – averaging just 2.9 yards on 42 pass plays with 4 interceptions against Marshall back in 2022. I’ll assume he’s gotten better in the past two years but he’s only thrown 4 passes since that start (completed 1 and had 1 intercepted) and will likely be a significant downgrade from Barnett in the pass game. Barnett was also valuable as a runner (689 yards on 101 runs) and Atkins has just 18 yards on 6 runs in his lone start.

James Madison’s offense was 0.3 yards per play worse than average this season with Barnett and I rate that unit at 0.9 yppl worse than average with Atkins at the helm, although that is subject to a lot of variance given that Atkins hasn’t played any meaningful snaps in over 2 years. Western Kentucky’s defense as 0.7 yppl worse than average for the season and I rate that unit at 1.0 yppl for this game assuming that the defenders on the bowl depth chart will play, as has been the case in the past with Western Kentucky under coach Helton.

Western Kentucky’s offense has 0.1 yppl worse than average with Veltkamp in the game and I rate the Hilltoppers’ attack at -0.3 yppl for this game with C Wibberly likely out (he’s committed to Kentucky) and WR Messer probably out. The JMU defense is 0.3 yppl better than average and they appear to be intact for this game.

I still see a bit of value on James Madison even after severely downgrading their offense. However, if Atkins is close to as bad as he was in his other career start in 2022 then Western Kentucky could win this game. Lots of variance here with still some uncertainty regarding the Hilltoppers’ transfers and how Atkins will perform.