Game Analysis

JACKSONVILLE STATE (-5)  33   Western Kentucky  30

For now, I’ll assume that Jacksonville State quarterback Tyler Huff will play and will be 100%. But I still would rather have Western Kentucky plus the points.

Huff is one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation but he’s a below average passer (relative to the defenses he’s faced) and overall the Gamecocks have averaged 6.3 yards per play with Huff behind center while facing teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average offense. That unit has an edge over a Western Kentucky defense that’s 0.5 yppl worse than average overall and 0.6 yppl worse than average defending the run.

Western Kentucky’s offense also has an advantage, as the Hilltoppers’ attack has been 0.1 yppl worse than average with quarterback Caden Veltkamp at quarterback (he took over early in week 3) while the Jacksonville State defense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defense).

Jacksonville State has an overall advantage at the line of scrimmage, mostly because they are the home team, and the Gamecocks add about 2 points based on fewer projected turnovers (because they don’t throw it often). Western Kentucky does have the advantage in special teams (their place kicker is nearly a point per game better than an average kicker) and overall I only favor JV State by 3.5 points in this game – with 63 total points in what is expected to be perfect conditions.