Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – UNDER (67.5) – Appalachian State (-3)  31   Western Kentucky  30

Western Kentucky scored 31 points or more in all 13 of their games this season but Appalachian State is the best defensive team that the Hilltoppers have faced all season and winds from 10 to 20 mph throughout the game, with a good chance of rain, should slow down the aerial attack that WKU depends on. Quarterback Bailey Zappe averages over 50 pass plays per game and he’ll be up against a better than average Appalachian State defense that is 0.2 yards per pass play better than average (0.9 yppp better than the average defense Zappe faced this season) and 0.4 yards per play better than average overall. Zappe averaged 8.2 yppp this season but I project just 7.1 yppp and 415 total yards on 6.1 yppl for the Hilltoppers in this game given the strength of the App State defense and the weather conditions.

The Appalachian State offense is a bit better than average (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) and I rate Western Kentucky’s defense at only 0.1 yppl worse than average heading into this game. The Hilltoppers were 0.3 yppl worse than average over the course of the season (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine just 5.3 yppl against an average team) but they improved over the 7 games with CB Dominique Bradshaw in the starting lineup after barely playing the first 6 games of the season. Bradshaw was third on the team in passes defended despite missing half the season and Western Kentucky allowed 21 points or fewer in Bradshaw’s first 6 games before giving up 49 points to UTSA in the CUSA Championship game (because of 311 rush yards). The pass defense in 7 games with Bradshaw was 0.3 yppp better than average (5.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.6 yppp against an average defense) but losing Will Ignont, who led the team in passes defended from his linebacker position, will likely hurt the pass defense some. I don’t think the Western Kentucky pass defense is as good as it was over the final 7 games and I rate the Hilltoppers at 0.2 yppp worse than average against the pass and 0.1 yprp worse than average defending the run. Appalachian State is projected to gain 444 yards at a mediocre 5.8 yppl in this game.

Appalachian State should control the ball (33.1 minutes of time of possession projected) and the combination of their defense, which allowed just 19.3 points per game, and the inclement weather should keep Western Kentucky well below their season average in points scored (43.1 ppg). The Mountaineers should also be held below their season average of 34.2 ppg by a WKU defense that is 0.3 yppl better than the average defense that they faced this season. The Under is a Strong Opinion at 67 points or more.