Game Analysis

Virginia Tech (-4)  30   West Virginia  26

West Virginia has been consistently good, but not great, the last three seasons, with an overall rating between +11.3 points and +13.1 points each season. This year’s team should be in that same range based on my current ratings even though the Mountaineers return just 7 total starters (4 on offense and 3 on defense). The West Virginia defense was 0.5 yards per play better than average last season (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team) despite having just 3 returning starters and my algorithm calls for pretty close to the same rating this season with only 3 starters returning once again (with David Long out for at least the start of the season). The Mounties’ offense will probably look different this season with head coach Dana Holgorsen relinquishing play-calling duties to new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, who led potent attacks at both Texas A&M and at Cal in recent years. Will Grier takes over as the starting quarterback after sitting out last season after transferring from Florida, where he posted solid numbers (66% completions in 5 starts before being suspended), and the rushing attack looks to be in great shape with Justin Crawford back after running for 1184 yards on an impressive 7.3 yards per run. The receiving corps will miss Shelton Gibson (22.1 yards per catch) but Spavital’s offense is based more on short passes and Grier has the accuracy to make the system work. Last season’s attack was 0.9 yards per play better than average and I rate this season’s offense the same to being the season.

Virginia Tech has their best team since 2009 in coach Justin Fuente’s first season at the helm and this game could be better if redshirt freshman quarterback Josh Jackson puts up numbers similar to Jerod Evans, who was an efficient passer (7.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) and also led the Hokies in rushing (1024 yards on 172 runs). However, my algorithm is calling for a decline of about 0.5 yards per play (nearly 3 points per game) – although there is certainly upside potential.

Virginia Tech’s defense should be really good this season with all their key pieces back from a unit that yielded just 22.8 points per game and rated at 0.7 yppl better than average after compensating for opposing defenses. The Hokies play an aggressive style of defense that limits completions and dares teams to throw the ball over the top (thus, their traditionally low completion percentage and high yards per completion allowed). That style of defense should work well against a West Virginia attack that is predicated on a high completion percentage on short passes. Spavital’s Cal offense averaged only 11.2 yards per completion last season despite having an NFL caliber quarterback and I think the Hokies’ press coverage could cause problems for a young quarterback in his first start. My ratings only favor Virginia Tech by 3 points but I subtracted a point from West Virginia’s offensive projection to account for the unfavorable matchup. I’ll pass this game.