Game Analysis

West Virginia (-1)  44   TEXAS TECH  43

This ought to be a fun game. Texas Tech has a horrible defense (6.4 yppl against FBS teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) but the Red Raiders are incredibly good offensively with Patrick Mahomes firing the ball all over the field. Texas Tech averaged over 600 yards per game at 7.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack (5.7 yppl is the national average).

West Virginia is a slightly better overall team, as the Mountaineers combine good offense (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) with a better than average defense that’s allowed just 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team. Texas Tech does have an advantage in projected play differential, which makes up for the small difference in yards per play differential and overall the numbers favor Texas Tech by 1 point. However, the Red Raiders apply to a negative 147-265-7 ATS situation so I’ll call for the Mounties to win by 1 instead.