Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *West Virginia (+13) 26   OKLAHOMA  33

West Virginia came through for us last week and I still see value on the Mountaineers, perhaps due to their underrated offense. West Virginia has averaged 28.4 points per game against FBS opponents and has been 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively for the season but they played two games with their horrible backup quarterback, so managed just 116 total passing yards on 33 pass plays against Pitt and Texas Tech. The Mounties’ attack has been 0.9 yppl better than average in 6 against against FBS opponents with Garrett Greene at quarterback and they’ve averaged 477 total yards and 35 points in 5 games against Big 12 foes since Greene returned from injury.

Oklahoma’s defense has been 0.7 yppl better than average this season (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would 6.1 yppl against an average defense – adjusted for facing Arkansas State’s horrible quarterbacks before they switched to Raynor) and I project 376 yards at 5.6 yppl for West Virginia in this game.

Oklahoma’s offense has been 1.1 yppl better than average and is projected to gain 445 yards at 6.6 yppl against a West Virginia defense that’s been 0.3 yppl better than average. The difference in projected yardage is only worth about 7 points and Oklahoma’s edge in projected turnovers (1.6 points) is offset somewhat by West Virginia’s 1.2 points edge in special teams (their kicker has a value of +0.8 FG points per game while OU’s place-kicking is -0.5 points).

West Virginia is a 1-Star Best Bet at +12 points or more.