West Virginia @

(12) Iowa St.

Sat, Dec 5
ESPN
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 395
Odds: Iowa St. -7, Total: 49

Game Analysis

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Note: W Virginia was a 1-Star Best Bet released to subscribers early in the week and line moved out of range.

Best Bet – *West Virginia (+7)  25   IOWA STATE  24

My model has had West Virginia pegged as an underrated team most of the season and the Mountaineers have covered the spread in 3 consecutive games since losing on a fumble return TD against Texas Tech. West Virginia controls the ball on offense with a steady rushing attack and accurate short passing with quarterback Jarret Doege (66% completions). The defense, meanwhile, has allowed just 17.8 points per game on 4.4 yards per rushing play, 4.6 yards per pass play and 4.5 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team.

That ball-control offense and stingy defense has led to a +168 average total yards margin and West Virginia’s offense has improved in recent weeks with WR T.J. Simmons now healthy and getting more targets. Simmons led all returning receivers in yards per target in 2019 and he easily leads the team with 15.5 yards per target (309 yards on 20 targets) this season and has averaged 4 targets per game the last 3 weeks after just 8 total targets in the first 5 games (he missed 3 of them).
Iowa State has a more potent offense, averaging 6.5 yppl (with starters in) against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, but they’ve averaged fewer total yards per game than West Virginia’s offense while the Cyclones’ defense has allowed 71 more yards per game than the Mountaineers’ defense while rating at just 0.5 yppl better than average on that side of the ball (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defense).

Iowa State is likely to average more yards per play in this game but West Virginia should run many more plays and have more total yards. Iowa State has been more efficient at turning yards into points though, so I will use some caution and make West Virginia just a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 -115 odds or better (Strong Opinion down to +6).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • West Virginia
  • Iowa St.
WVA
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 35.9 30.1
  • Run Yards 158.0 114.1
  • YPRP 4.8 4.4




Pass





  • Pass Comp 26.3 16.6
  • Pass Att 39.8 28.0
  • Comp % 66.0% 59.4%
  • Pass Yards 290.0 161.5
  • Sacks 1.9 3.1
  • Sack Yards 13.0 17.0
  • Sack % 4.5% 10.1%
  • Pass Plays 41.6 31.1
  • Net Pass Yards 277.0 144.5
  • YPPP 6.7 4.6

Total

  • Total Plays 77.5 61.3
  • Total Yards 448.0 275.6
  • YPPL 5.8 4.5

TO


  • Int 0.4 1.3
  • Int % 1.0% 4.5%
  • Fumbles 0.8 0.3
  • Turnovers 1.1 1.5
 
  • Points 29.4 17.8
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