Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – HOUSTON (-12.5 -115)  34   West Virginia  15

Houston’s only loss this season was to a very good Texas Tech team and the Cougars should have no trouble beating a bad West Virginia team that lost all 3 of their Big 12 road games by an average of 26 points to Kansas, BYU, and UCF (they also lost their non-conference road game at Ohio U).

Houston’s balanced offense has been 0.4 yards per play better than average this season (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they’ve actually been better in their last two games without big play receiver Stephon Johnson – although I have adjusted their pass attack down by 0.2 yards per pass play for his absence. West Virginia has a decent defense that rates as average on a national scale (6.3 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would average 6.3 yppl against an average defense) but the Mountaineers’ fast pace on offense results in a couple of extra possessions per game for their opponents. I project 453 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Cougars in this game.

West Virginia’s offense has struggled, as the Mountaineers have managed just 16 points per game (in regulation) and 4.2 yppl against FBS opponents that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack. Fourth string QB Scotty Fox played better than expected last week but the Mountaineers still only scored 17 points on 4.8 yppl at home against a mediocre TCU defense and Fox managed just 26 yards on 22 pass plays the week before that at UCF. The Mounties did throw the ball more last week, which helps them relatively against a solid Houston defense (0.4 yppl better than average) that’s not as good defending the pass as they are defending the run. I did give West Virginia a bit of a boost in the pass game with Fox behind center but West Virginia’s current crop of running backs has combined for just 3.6 yards per run in FBS games (their best two running backs White and Edwards are both out for the season). I project just 15 points on 286 yards at 4.0 yppl (just below their season averages) in this game.

Houston has a significant advantage from the line of scrimmage, an edge in special teams (their kicker is more than a point per game better than average on field goals), and seasoned quarterback Conner Weigman has limited his turnovers throughout his career (and just 2 interceptions thrown in 8 games this season).

There is enough line value on Houston to merit a play now that the line has dropped below 14 points and the Cougars apply to a 103-35-3 ATS situation that plays on big home favorites after an upset road win (they won at Arizona State last week).

Houston is a Strong Opinion at -13.5 points or less.