Game Analysis
Note: I released this play the day after Baylor QB Shapen was announced as out and the line was -9.5. The line moved to -11 and then higher as the week progressed.
2-Star Best Bet – (217) **West Virginia (-9.5) 37 BAYLOR 19
Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen is out and Sawyer Robertson will get his 4th start of the season. Robertson has completed only 50% of his passes and he’s averaged just 5.9 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback. That’s a significant downgrade from Shapen (about 6 points when factoring in the higher likelihood of throwing interceptions (4 in 98 passes to just 3 in 184 passes for Shapen). West Virginia has a better than average pass defense (0.6 yppp better than average) and Baylor’s pass-heavy attack isn’t good enough at running the ball (0.6 yprp worse than average) to take advantage of the Mountaineers’ soft defensive front (0.4 yprp worse than average defending the run).
While Baylor’s offense is likely to struggle the Mounties’ attack should work really well in this game. West Virginia’s offense is 1.0 yppl better than average with quarterback Garrett Greene behind center and that attack is underrated because of how bad Greene’s backup was in the two games he missed (only 3.95 yppl and rated at 2.4 yppl worse than average in those games against Pitt and Texas Tech). Baylor’s defense, meanwhile, has been 0.7 yppl worse than average, allowing 36 points per game and 6.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. West Virginia’s offense is better than the average of the teams that Baylor has faced and the Mountaineers are projected to top the 36 points that Baylor allows per game.
Not only is there line value on West Virginia (my math model favors them by 15.1 points, but the Mounties apply to a very good 121-44-2 ATS late-season road favorite situation while Baylor applies to a 20-58 ATS last home game underdog situation.
West Virginia is a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 or less and 1-Star to -11
Rush
-
Run Plays
42.7
30.9
-
Run Yards
235.2
174.7
-
YPRP
5.5
5.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
13.4
20.0
-
Pass Att
25.0
33.7
-
Comp %
53.6%
59.3%
-
Pass Yards
185.0
238.2
-
Sacks
0.9
2.0
-
Sack Yards
4.8
13.8
-
Sack %
3.5%
5.6%
-
Pass Plays
25.9
35.7
-
Net Pass Yards
180.2
224.4
-
YPPP
7.0
6.3
Total
-
Total Plays
68.6
66.6
-
Total Yards
415.4
399.1
-
YPPL
6.1
6.0
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.7
-
Int %
2.8%
2.1%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.1
1.1
Rush
-
Run Plays
29.2
34.8
-
Run Yards
123.5
197.5
-
YPRP
4.2
5.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
23.2
19.1
-
Pass Att
39.3
28.8
-
Comp %
59.0%
66.3%
-
Pass Yards
282.9
252.8
-
Sacks
3.1
1.5
-
Sack Yards
23.7
9.0
-
Sack %
7.3%
5.0%
-
Pass Plays
42.4
30.3
-
Net Pass Yards
259.2
243.8
-
YPPP
6.1
8.0
Total
-
Total Plays
71.6
65.1
-
Total Yards
382.7
441.3
-
YPPL
5.3
6.8
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.6
-
Int %
1.8%
2.1%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.9
-
Turnovers
1.4
1.5
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/02/23 @ Penn St. |
15-38 |
+20.5
L
|
36/34 |
165/152 |
4.6/4.5 |
0/0 |
16/22 |
27/30 |
156/326 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
5.4/10.5 |
321/478 |
4.9/7.4 |
09/09/23 Duquesne |
56-17 |
0.0
W
|
48/25 |
306/22 |
6.4/0.9 |
2/0 |
17/15 |
32/32 |
311/212 |
0/2 |
1/3 |
9.4/6.1 |
617/234 |
7.6/3.9 |
09/16/23 Pittsburgh |
17-6 |
-2.5
W
|
46/35 |
181/139 |
3.9/4.0 |
1/0 |
6/8 |
11/20 |
44/72 |
0/3 |
2/1 |
3.4/3.4 |
225/211 |
3.8/3.8 |
09/23/23 Texas Tech |
20-13 |
+6.0
W
|
40/36 |
164/174 |
4.1/4.8 |
0/0 |
13/15 |
22/43 |
93/141 |
2/0 |
1/2 |
4.0/3.1 |
257/315 |
4.1/3.9 |
09/30/23 @ TCU |
24-21 |
+13.5
W
|
42/33 |
202/158 |
4.8/4.8 |
0/0 |
10/23 |
21/41 |
142/275 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
6.8/6.0 |
344/433 |
5.5/5.5 |
10/12/23 @ Houston |
39-35 |
-2.5
W
|
43/24 |
166/153 |
3.9/6.4 |
0/0 |
20/20 |
38/26 |
388/191 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
9.9/6.8 |
554/344 |
6.8/6.6 |
10/21/23 Oklahoma St. |
34-48 |
-3.0
L
|
42/32 |
231/285 |
5.5/8.9 |
2/1 |
15/24 |
30/36 |
246/210 |
1/1 |
1/0 |
7.9/5.8 |
477/495 |
6.5/7.3 |
10/28/23 @ UCF |
41-28 |
+7.0
W
|
46/32 |
300/198 |
6.5/6.2 |
1/1 |
14/25 |
23/36 |
143/265 |
0/3 |
1/1 |
6.0/7.2 |
443/463 |
6.3/6.7 |
11/04/23 BYU |
37-7 |
-12.0
W
|
47/18 |
337/79 |
7.2/4.4 |
0/1 |
16/24 |
28/42 |
231/186 |
0/0 |
0/3 |
8.3/4.1 |
568/265 |
7.6/4.2 |
11/11/23 @ Oklahoma |
20-59 |
+13.0
L
|
40/38 |
181/237 |
4.5/6.2 |
0/1 |
12/23 |
31/36 |
149/409 |
2/0 |
1/2 |
4.7/10.8 |
330/646 |
4.6/8.5 |
11/18/23 Cincinnati |
42-21 |
-5.0
W
|
45/27 |
425/172 |
9.4/6.4 |
0/0 |
12/16 |
19/27 |
210/169 |
1/0 |
0/3 |
11.1/5.6 |
635/341 |
9.9/6.0 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/02/23 Texas State |
31-42 |
-27.5
L
|
29/35 |
126/166 |
4.3/4.7 |
1/2 |
27/22 |
44/30 |
395/292 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
8.4/9.4 |
521/458 |
6.9/6.9 |
09/09/23 Utah |
13-20 |
+7.5
W
|
29/44 |
121/232 |
4.2/5.3 |
0/0 |
12/12 |
28/26 |
218/145 |
2/1 |
0/3 |
7.8/5.0 |
339/377 |
5.9/5.2 |
09/16/23 LIU |
30-7 |
0.0
W
|
48/26 |
270/155 |
5.6/6.0 |
1/0 |
13/6 |
27/14 |
147/28 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
5.4/1.8 |
417/183 |
5.6/4.4 |
09/23/23 Texas |
6-38 |
+17.0
L
|
26/31 |
76/190 |
2.9/6.1 |
0/2 |
29/19 |
53/25 |
258/313 |
1/0 |
5/3 |
4.4/11.2 |
334/503 |
4.0/8.5 |
09/30/23 @ UCF |
36-35 |
+8.0
W
|
39/33 |
203/244 |
5.2/7.4 |
1/1 |
21/13 |
34/25 |
243/230 |
0/1 |
4/1 |
6.4/8.8 |
446/474 |
5.8/8.0 |
10/07/23 Texas Tech |
14-39 |
+1.5
L
|
23/38 |
63/201 |
2.7/5.3 |
1/1 |
22/19 |
38/26 |
294/169 |
0/1 |
6/1 |
6.7/6.3 |
357/370 |
5.3/5.7 |
10/21/23 @ Cincinnati |
32-29 |
+3.0
W
|
23/41 |
107/310 |
4.7/7.6 |
0/1 |
25/19 |
42/31 |
297/147 |
0/0 |
3/2 |
6.6/4.5 |
404/457 |
5.9/6.2 |
10/28/23 Iowa St. |
18-30 |
+3.0
L
|
23/30 |
80/180 |
3.5/6.0 |
1/1 |
24/19 |
41/31 |
229/229 |
1/1 |
2/1 |
5.3/7.2 |
309/409 |
4.7/6.6 |
11/04/23 Houston |
24-25 |
-3.0
L
|
30/31 |
185/139 |
6.2/4.5 |
0/0 |
29/21 |
37/27 |
227/227 |
1/2 |
4/1 |
5.5/8.1 |
412/366 |
5.8/6.2 |
11/11/23 @ Kansas St. |
25-59 |
+21.0
L
|
31/36 |
124/193 |
4.0/5.4 |
3/0 |
22/21 |
45/34 |
229/258 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
4.8/7.4 |
353/451 |
4.5/6.4 |
11/18/23 @ TCU |
17-42 |
+13.0
L
|
39/29 |
150/120 |
3.8/4.1 |
0/1 |
21/26 |
31/33 |
202/428 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
6.3/12.6 |
352/548 |
5.0/8.7 |