West Virginia @

Baylor

Sat, Nov 25
Fox Sports 1
4:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 217
Odds: Baylor +9.5, Total: 54.5

Game Analysis

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Note: I released this play the day after Baylor QB Shapen was announced as out and the line was -9.5. The line moved to -11 and then higher as the week progressed.

2-Star Best Bet – (217) **West Virginia (-9.5)  37   BAYLOR  19

Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen is out and Sawyer Robertson will get his 4th start of the season. Robertson has completed only 50% of his passes and he’s averaged just 5.9 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback. That’s a significant downgrade from Shapen (about 6 points when factoring in the higher likelihood of throwing interceptions (4 in 98 passes to just 3 in 184 passes for Shapen). West Virginia has a better than average pass defense (0.6 yppp better than average) and Baylor’s pass-heavy attack isn’t good enough at running the ball (0.6 yprp worse than average) to take advantage of the Mountaineers’ soft defensive front (0.4 yprp worse than average defending the run).

While Baylor’s offense is likely to struggle the Mounties’ attack should work really well in this game. West Virginia’s offense is 1.0 yppl better than average with quarterback Garrett Greene behind center and that attack is underrated because of how bad Greene’s backup was in the two games he missed (only 3.95 yppl and rated at 2.4 yppl worse than average in those games against Pitt and Texas Tech). Baylor’s defense, meanwhile, has been 0.7 yppl worse than average, allowing 36 points per game and 6.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. West Virginia’s offense is better than the average of the teams that Baylor has faced and the Mountaineers are projected to top the 36 points that Baylor allows per game.

Not only is there line value on West Virginia (my math model favors them by 15.1 points, but the Mounties apply to a very good 121-44-2 ATS late-season road favorite situation while Baylor applies to a 20-58 ATS last home game underdog situation.

West Virginia is a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 or less and 1-Star to -11

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • West Virginia
  • Baylor
WVA
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 42.7 30.9
  • Run Yards 235.2 174.7
  • YPRP 5.5 5.7




Pass





  • Pass Comp 13.4 20.0
  • Pass Att 25.0 33.7
  • Comp % 53.6% 59.3%
  • Pass Yards 185.0 238.2
  • Sacks 0.9 2.0
  • Sack Yards 4.8 13.8
  • Sack % 3.5% 5.6%
  • Pass Plays 25.9 35.7
  • Net Pass Yards 180.2 224.4
  • YPPP 7.0 6.3

Total

  • Total Plays 68.6 66.6
  • Total Yards 415.4 399.1
  • YPPL 6.1 6.0

TO


  • Int 0.7 0.7
  • Int % 2.8% 2.1%
  • Fumbles 0.4 0.4
  • Turnovers 1.1 1.1
 
  • Points 31.4 26.6
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