Game Analysis

STANFORD (-7)  35   Washington State  24

Stanford suddenly is getting no love, as the line on this game has come down from 12 ½ points to around a touchdown. Yes, the Cardinal were destroyed by Washington last week but that’s just one game. Washington State was beaten at home by Eastern Washington and they didn’t suddenly suck, did they? The line on this game is a gross overreaction to last week, which not only saw Stanford lose by 38 points but also included an upset win by Washington State over Oregon.

Stanford’s offense is ready to bust out after facing a collection of good defensive teams so far this season (Kansas State, USC, UCLA, and Washington) and facing a bad Washington State defense that’s allowed 6.6 yards per play (to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team) is exactly what Christain McCaffrey and company need to get their mojo back. The math model projects 6.1 yards per rushing play and 8.7 yards per pass play for Stanford in this game, so they should be able to move the ball consistently well.

On the other side of the ball, it looks like the Cardinal will still be without both starting cornerbacks but Stanford also tends to defend the Texas Tech style spread attack very well. In fact, in the last 3 years against Washington State and Cal, who both run that offense, the Cardinal have gone 5-1 ATS while holding those teams to an average of just 19 points per game. That’s incredible given how well those offenses have performed in general over the last 3 years (#1 NFL draft pick Jared Goff was the quarterback in all 3 games for Cal).

I used Stanford’s pass defense numbers from the last 1 ½ games, in which the Cardinal were without their two starting corners, and the math model still favors Stanford by 11 points in this game.