Game Analysis

Lean – Under (55) – Fresno State (-3 -115)  28   Washington State  23

The math would have favored Washington State by 2 points before adjusting for current personnel, but Washington State has suffered some key losses while Fresno gets a boost on offense with Jake Haener back the last 6 games after missing 4 ½ games, and the Bulldogs’ defense is better with changes to their starting lineup.

Fresno State lost to top-20 teams Oregon State and USC early in the season and then lost the two games after that without Haener before regrouping and winning 9 straight games, including the Mountain West Conference championship game against Boise State. Haener’s return sparked the offense, which was below average with backup Logan Fife at quarterback but rates at 0.2 yards per play better than average with Haener at the controls.

Washington State’s defense was 0.3 yppl better than average over the course of the season despite having two horrendous games against elite offensive teams Oregon and Washington (95 points and 9.4 yppl allowed). The Cougars were 0.5 yppl better than average after adjusting for outliers but that unit will be worse without 1st-Team All-Pac 12 LB Daiyan Henley, who has decided to not risk injury before heading to the NFL (although he will be with the team as a sort of assistant linebackers coach). After all the player adjustments and adjusting for playing in perfect dome conditions I project Fresno State with 390 total yards at 5.8 yppl.

Washington State’s offense struggled down the stretch with star WR Renard Bell playing just one full game out of the last 7 games. Bell is still out with injury and #1 and #3 pass catchers Stribling and Ollie have transferred out. I now rate Washington State’s pass offense at 1.1 yards per pass play worse than average and the Cougars are 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively overall heading into this game.

Fresno State also improved defensively down the stretch after CB Cameron Lockridge joined the starting lineup and CB Carlton Johnson began playing more after not playing at all the first 8 weeks of the season. Over the last 5 games Lockridge has had 4 interceptions and 9 total passes defended while Johnson has defended 6 passes in those 5 games despite only starting in the last two. Fresno is a bit worse than average defending the run but it’s more important to be able to defend the pass against the Washington State offense and Fresno’s pass defense is 0.7 yards per pass play better than average over the last 5 games with their new secondary, including giving up just 16 points and 4.6 yppp to a better than average Boise State offense. I project 361 total yards at 5.3 yppl for Washington State in this game.

The math favors Fresno by 4.5 points with a total of just 51 points even with the adjustment for playing this game in a domed stadium. I’ll lean Under 55 points or more.