Game Analysis

Washington (-12 ½)  35   ARIZONA  22

Washington has lived up to their high expectations so far this season against 3 bad teams (Rutgers, Idaho, and Portland State, winning those games by an average score of 49-10, but the Huskies have their first legitimate challenge today. Washington’s offense is not nearly as good as it appears, as the Huskies have averaged their 7.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.8 yppl to an average team but the defense, which I ranked among the best in the nation heading into this season, has allowed just 3.0 yards per play with the starters in (3.7 yppl overall). The teams that the Huskies have faced would average just 4.5 yppl against an average team, so Washington’s starting defensive unit has been 1.5 yppl better than average so far.

Arizona has played the last two weeks without starting quarterback Anu Solomon and most of last week without RB Nick Wilson but neither really makes a difference, as backup quarterback Brandon Dawkins is actually more dangerous because of his running ability (227 yards on 29 runs the last two weeks) and Wilson’s compensated yards per run average is about the same as the rest of the team. The Arizona offense has been 0.7 yards per play better than average so far (7.0 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team) but the Wildcats’ defense has been 0.6 yppl worse than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average defense) – so the Cats are pretty mediocre.

My ratings favor Washington by 14 points using their defensive stats with the garbage time taken out and the situation favors Arizona slightly. I’ll pass.