Game Analysis

Note: I released this Best Bet early and got good line value on the Under (closed at 59)

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (63) – Missouri (+1)  28   Wake Forest  27

Wake Forest averaged 36.2 points in the 11 games with Sam Hartman at quarterback, but Missouri’s defense is 0.8 yards per play better than the average defense that the Demon Deacons faced this season and the Tigers’ slow pace on offense will likely give Wake one fewer possession than normal. Missouri yielded just 5.2 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team and only elite offensive teams Kansas State and Tennessee scored more than 27 points against Missouri this season (and Wake is not an elite offensive team). The Tigers allowed an average of just 25 points facing a schedule of teams with an average compensated yards per play rating that is exactly the same as Wake Forest’s offensive rating, which is just 0.4 yppl better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl).

Missouri’s defense won’t be as good without 3 starters that have opted out, as star safety Martez Manuel and stud defensive linemen Isaiah McGuire and D.J. Coleman combined for 17 of the Tigers’ 33 sacks and added 16 additional tackles for loss. I value the impact of those absences at 0.4 yppl and 3.8 points (3.4 points to the total).

Wake Forest has been good at converting on 3rd-downs (46.4%) but Missouri’s defense is good on 3rd-down (33.9% against a slate of good offensive teams) and that battle could determine the winner of this game. My math projects a modest 409 yards at 5.6 yppl for the Demon Deacons in this game.

Missouri’s offense averaged just 5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team but that attack is going to be significantly worse without superstar WR Dominic Lovett, who has decided to transfer. Lovett averaged 11.3 yards on his 75 targets with a very good 53% success rate while the rest of the wide receivers combined to average just 7.2 yards per target with a 41% success rate. WR Barrett Banister (8.2 YPT and 50% success) is now the main target and he plans to play after missing the final two games of the regular season. Lovett being out is worth 2.9 points to Missouri and 2.7 points to the total.

Wake Forest has been 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively this season (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl) and the Demon Deacons are down two defensive backs in safety Malik Mustapha (injury) and CB Gavin Holmes (transfer). I value those losses at 1.5 points, which is not as much as Lovett is worth to Missouri’s offense. I project 382 yards at 5.6 yppl for Missouri’s offense in this game.

Missouri games went over the total in each of their last 3 contests, but the Tigers are 8-4 Under for the season and teams that went over in their last 3 games or more are 73-47-1 Under in their bowl game (63-34-1 Under when the total is less than 65 points). Missouri games had 7 non-offensive touchdowns, which is more than usual, and that has influenced the total upwards a bit. The math favors Missouri by 1.4 points with 56.4 total points and the bowl under trend is in play.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 62 points or higher (Strong Opinion down to 61).