Game Analysis

DUKE (-6 ½)  26   Wake Forest  20

Duke struggled offensively against woeful NC Central until redshirt freshman Daniel Jones entered the game Jones was 10 of 15 for 189 yards in relief of Parker Boehme, who averaged just 4.8 yards per pass attempt on 8 attempts. Jones will get the start this week and he’ll be up against a very good Wake Forest defense that allowed just 4.0 yards per play in last week’s 7-3 win over Tulane and rates at 0.6 yppl better than average overall. The problem with the Demon Deacons is obviously an offense that could manage just 7 points and 3.4 yppl against Tulane. I do expect Wake’s offense to be better than that going forward, as it’s unikely that they are actually worse than they were last season (4.8 yppl) with both quarterbacks and 8 other offensive starters returning.

My ratings favor Duke by 9 points in this game but Wake Forest applies to an 130-61-1 ATS revenge situation based on last year’s 21-27 loss to the Blue Devils. That angle makes this game tough to play with the line value on the opposite side.