Game Analysis

Virginia Tech (-10.5)  29   Tulane  16

Tulane will be without the starting quarterback, their top three receivers and three defensive starters, including 2 that were 1st Team All-AAC, and now I see some value on Virginia Tech.

With quarterback Michael Pratt opting out to prepare for the NFL combine, it will be either Kai Horton (in the transfer portal but will play) or Justin Ibieta getting the start behind center for the Green Wave. Ibieta was ahead of Horton on the depth chart last season and has completed 26 of 39 career passes – and looked good in his only start last season versus Houston (5 completions on 5 pass plays for 57 yards) before getting injured. I’ll assume that both will perform at the same level that Horton did in two starts early this season when Pratt was hurt, which is 0.7 yards per play worse than average and 0.8 yppp worse than Pratt’s rating. I also must adjust for the absence of receivers Chris Brazell, Lawrence Keys (injury) and Jha’Quan Jackson (transfer portal), who combined for 1749 yards at 9.9 yards per target. The remianing receivers trying to fill the void combined to average just 7.1 YPT this season and the aerial attack struggled when Jackson was out in recent games and should be horrible without all 3 starting receivers and Pratt. I rate the Green Wave attack at 0.9 yppl worse than average (-0.1 yppl before adjustments).

I expect Tulane will try to run the ball more than normal given that Virginia Tech’s defense is 0.4 yards per rushing play worse than average and 1.0 yppp better than average defending the pass. I project Tulane with 258 yards at 4.6 yppl in this game, which includes an adjustment for the rain that is now expected throughout the game.

Virginia Tech’s offense started the season poorly, but Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells in week 3 and the offense improved significantly. Drones is about the same as Wells in compensated yards per pass play (+0.4 yppp) but Drones takes off running rather than forcing throws into coverage and the result was not only nearly 800 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per run, but he also threw just 3 interceptions in 10 starts. The Hokies’ offense was 0.7 yppl better than average with Drones at quarterback. Starting TE Dae’Quan Wright is not going to play but his 7.6 yards per target and 39% success rate is worse than backup Benji Gosnell, who averaged 8.9 YPT with a 58% success rate.

Tulane’s defense was 0.4 yppl better than average (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team). Defensive line stars Devean Deal and Keith Cooper Jr. are both in the transfer portal but are reportedly going to play (both on the depth chart), but 3 other key defensive starters are not on the depth chart and will not play. The Green Wave will be without All-Conference DE Darius Hodges, All-Conference CB Jarius Monroe and starting S DJ Dougles. Those 3 are worth more than Deal and Cooper would have been worth. I rate the Green Wave defense at 0.1 yppl worse than average without those their 3 starters and project Virginia Tech to gain 397 yards at 6.3 yppl.

Overall, the math favors the Hokies by 13.1 points with a total of 45.4 points.