Game Analysis

Note: The line on this game has moved up to 10.5 (a Strong Opinion at that number).

1-Star Best Bet – *Virginia (-9.5 -115)  33   NORTH CAROLINA  16

Virginia did not play inspired football last week in a 22-20 win over Washington State but I expect the Cavaliers to be more focused for ACC rival North Carolina. The Tarheels played well last week in an 18-21 loss at Cal but that loss could linger given how they fumbled the winning touchdown away at the 1-yard line. Teams coming off close losses as touchdown underdogs or more tend to suffer a hangover, as teams that lost by 7 points or less as an underdog of 7 points or more the previous week are just 678-878-23 ATS in conference games. North Carolina applies to a 53-110-3 ATS subset of that situation.

Virginia is also a much better team, as the Cavaliers have played 10 points better than an average team while North Carolina ahs been 10 points worse than an average team. The Tarheels are solid defensively (I rate them 0.3 yards per play better than average) but their offense has been horrible. UNC has averaged just 14.2 points on 252 yards per game at 4.4 yppl against FBS opponents that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average offense. Virginia has been 0.2 yppl better than average defensively despite playing 3 games without star LB Kam Robinson, who is #2 on the team in tackles with 35 in just 4 games. North Carolina is projected to score a couple of more points than their average against FBS teams playing at home (even with some wind expected in Chapel Hill on Saturday early afternoon).

Virginia should be able to win by double-digits with an offense that’s averaged 34.7 points per game (in regulation) and 6.2 yppl against FBS opponents that rate the same as the North Carolina defense. The Cavaliers are likely to score 30-plus points in this game, as they’ve done in every game before last week. Quarterback Chandler Morris has been a bit banged up (non-throwing shoulder injury) but he’s expected to play. I project less running for him, which hurts the run offense by about 0.3 yards per rushing play, but the Cavs should have more than enough offense to pull away from a North Carolina team with an impotent offense.

Virginia is a 1-Star Best Bet at -10 or less (Strong Opinion to -11).