Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Virginia (+20.5)  18   LOUISVILLE  33

Virginia’s starting quarterback Tony Muskett is questionable with an ankle sprain, but backup Anthony Colandrea has been significantly better in compensated yards per pass play on his 149 pass plays this season because he’s not afraid to throw the ball down the field. Colandrea has averaged 7.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB while Muskett has been -0.6 yppp worse than average. That same characteristic tends to lead to more interceptions but overall I rate Virginia’s offense at 3.7 points better with Colandrea than with Muskett, even when using Colandrea’s median performance level (his 346 yards on 30 pass plays against a very good James Madison defense likely is an outlier). I rate Virginia’s offense as average on a national scale with Colandrea behind center and the Cavaliers’ defense has been 0.2 yards per play better than average.

Louisville has been surprisingly good this season and the Cardinals have been 13.3 points better than an average team this season. However, Virginia is about average with Colandrea at quarterback, even with the more than average number of interceptions he’s likely to throw (1.2 projected for this game), and Virginia has a 1.2 points edge in special teams (0.6 coming from the difference in place-kicking. The line is too high and Virginia is better than their 2-7 record indicates (6-3 ATS). Louisville has only given up 3 total points in their last two games but it will be hard for the Cardinals to keep up that level of intensity against a 2-7 team. In fact, teams that have allowed 6 or fewer total point in their previous two games are just 13-32 ATS laying 17 points or more against a team with a win percentage of 0.333 or lower. Louisville may also be looking ahead to next week’s showdown with Miami-Florida, which will likely decide the second team to join Florida State in the ACC Championship game.

Virginia is a Strong Opinion at +20 points or more.