Game Analysis

*BOISE STATE (-12*)  31   Virginia  13

Strong Opinion – Under (52 ½)

It appears as if Brett Rypien will be back at quarterback for Boise State after sitting out nearly two full games with a concussion. The line jumped up a couple of points on that news but I would have preferred to play Boise at a lower number with Montell Cozart at quarterback since I don’t think Rypien makes a difference to the offense. Cozart actually has better compensated passing numbers this season (6.7 yards per pass play on 51 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB) than Rypien has (5.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp) and Cozart adds a running element (187 yards on 28 runs) that Rypien does not possess. Rypien’s sample size this season is small (37 pass plays) and he averaged 8.6 yppp in 2016 (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp) so I still rate the Broncos’ as a better passing team with Rypien.

However, I do not expect Rypien to be nearly as good as he was last season when the Broncos had two elite receivers in Thomas Sperbeck (10.2 yards per target on 125 targets) and Cedrick Wilson (11.9 ypt on 95 targets). Rypien still has Wilson to throw to and he’s been just as good (12.0 ypt on 23 targets) but the next 3 wide receivers have combined to average just 5.7 ypt on 21 targets, which is a massive drop-off from what Sperbeck averaged. Boise’s pass attack won’t be nearly as good as last season unless another receiver steps up and the rushing attack, without Cozart helping, is also worse.

Boise lost RB Jeremy McNichols (1709 yards at 5.4 ypr in ’16) to the NFL after his junior season and new backs Mattison and Wolphin have combined for a dismal 3.9 ypr through the first 3 games. Overall the Boise offense rates the same with either quarterback because of what Cozart adds with his feet and the Broncos are clearly not as good on the attack side of the ball as they were last season.

Virginia’s defense is mediocre at best, as the 20.7 points per game they’ve allowed through 3 games is not indicative of their level of play. The Cavaliers have allowed 5.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team and last season that unit was 0.3 yppl worse than average. Overall, the math projects a modest 5.7 yppl for Boise State in this game.

While the Boise State offense doesn’t figure to be as good this season, the Broncos defense looks significantly improved. Boise has yielded just 4.2 yards per play against Troy, Washington State, and New Mexico and held the best of those offenses (WSU) to just 4.8 yppl in their overtime loss to the Cougars (just 3.8 yppl in the other two games combined). Virginia looked incredibly good offensively in last week’s 38-18 win over Connecticut with 621 yards at 8.7 yppl but the Cavaliers have averaged just 5.6 yppl in 3 games even without those incredible numbers from last week skewing their average upwards. Virginia actually rates at 0.7 yppl worse than average when you take into account that the three teams the Cavaliers have faced would combine to allow 6.3 yppl to an average team. I don’t see the Cavs having much success in this game against what appears to be a very good Boise State defense.

Overall, my math favors Boise State by 15 ½ points and I get 19 points using this year’s games only. The Broncos also apply to a 151-63-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Virginia applies to a 101-212-5 ATS situation. I’ll consider Boise State a 1-Star Best Bet at -12 or less and as a Strong Opinion from -12.5 to -14.

I also see this as a low scoring game given that Boise State’s offense is not as good while their defense is underrated. Boise is also playing at a much slower pace so far this season and their games have averaged 11.3 points below the over/under total (excluding the total points in overtime against Washington State). I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 51 points or higher.

*Note: The line was at -12 this morning but has since moved out of Best Bet range up to -13. I still consider Boise a Strong Opinion at that number.

This play obviously didn’t work out but my Saturday Best Bets were 7-3, which is a good lesson not to judge on one play regardless of whether it wins by 20 points or losses by 20 points.

Football Best Bets 17-7 This Season

A pick-six by Western Kentucky in the final minute against Ball State (+11.5 but lost by 12 on that play) kept me from having a really good week on my College Best Bets, but I was still 7-4 on College Best Bets and I am now 17-7 on my Football Best Bets this season (13-6 on College Best Bets and 4-1 on NFL Best Bets) after going 148-107 (58%) on Football Best Bets in 2016.

My College Football has been profitable for years (55% winners since 1999 for +221.5 Stars of profit) and the NFL Best Bets are now 104-70 (60%) using the new NFL play-by-play model introduced last season, including 69-27 (72%) on sides.

I was pretty conservative the first 3 weeks in College Football but my in-season math model has kicked in and I had 11 College Best Bets this past week (7-4 record) and will probably have a lot this coming week as well.

My plan to be conservative the first four weeks of the season in the NFL has paid off so far (4-1 on Best Bets) but I’ll start to play more games in a couple of weeks.

I also have 4-Week and full season subscription packages available and you can view all Best Bet subscription packages on the Best Bets page.