Game Analysis

TEXAS (-3)  26   Vanderbilt  22

Arch Manning has been upgraded to probable for Texas.

The battle in this game is Vanderbilt’s elite offense against an elite Texas defense. Vandy has averaged 7.2 yards per play against a schedule of better than average defensive teams while Texas has allowed just 4.5 yppl against a schedule of better than average offensive teams.

The Commodores have faced 4 good defensive teams in South Carolina, Alabama, LSU, and Missouri and they’ve averaged 23 points and 5.9 yards per play against those teams, which is 1.2 yppl better than an average offense would perform against those defensive units.

The Texas defense has faced 6 good offensive teams and has yielded just 4.9 yppl while rating at 1.5 yppl better than average relative to what an average defense would allow to those teams. So I do think that the Texas defense has an advantage in that matchup – and they did allow just 4.3 yppl and only 14 points to Ohio State, which is the best defense they’ve played. Texas will be without safety Michael Taaffe, who is a great run stopper and has been good in coverage. I value him as worth 1 point.

Vanderbilt has a good, but not great, defense that’s been 0.4 yppl better than average this season after adjusting for 52 pass plays against backup quarterbacks versus South Carolina and Missouri. However, Texas has been averaged only 5.7 yppl with their starters in the game this season and I project the Longhorns to average just 5.7 yppl at home in this game.