Game Analysis

GEORGIA TECH (-6 ½)  26   Vanderbilt  16

Don’t be fooled by the 47 points that Vanderbilt scored last week, as the Commodores’ offense is still horrible. Vandy averaged only 4.7 yards per play last week and just 3.7 yppl in their opening week loss to South Carolina, so last week’s point total is a mirage. Georgia Tech’s defense is also not as good as their points allowed average of 12.0 ppg would suggest, as the Yellow Jackets gave up 6.5 yppl to a pedestrian Boston College offense and the 4.7 yppl they surrendered to Mercer isn’t impressive either.

What’s important is that Georgia Tech’s run defense is actually not bad and all you have to do to stop Vanderbilt is stop running back Ralph Webb, who has run for 308 yards at 6.3 ypr in two games. Webb only averaged 4.2 ypr last season, so maintaining those numbers is not likely, and Commodores’ quarterback Kyle Shurmur as cemented himself as the worst Big 5 conference quarterback in the nation. Shurmur has averaged a pathetic 3.7 yards on his 165 career pass plays, including just 3.1 yppp so far this season. Shurmur is not going to take advantage of a sub-par Georgia Tech pass defense and the Yellow Jackets’ option attack is projected to gain 362 yards at a decent 5.6 yards per play clip. That should be enough to win this game comfortably.