Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Tulane (-3)  27   Texas-San Antonio  18

Lean – Under (52)

UTSA has an overrated offense that has managed to average 33 points per game despite ginb 0.3 yards per play worse than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team). They’ve actually been a bit worse in the games with Frank Harris, who missed a couple of games early in the season, and today the Roadrunners face a better than average defense for the first time in since scoring just 14 points against Tennessee. The next best defense they faced was Houston, who is average defensively, and UTSA scored just 14 points in that game. I do project more than 14 points for the Roadrunners but the math has them averaging just 5.0 yppl against a better than average Tulane defense.

Tulane’s offense isn’t nearly as good as it was last season, as they’re just average offensively in compensated yards per play, and UTSA has a defense that is 0.2 yppl better than average, but the Green Wave are projected to average 5.5 yppl at home and are a couple of points better in special teams. There is value on Tulane and the Green Wave apply to a 184-93-4 ATS late-season home team situation.

Tulane is a Strong Opinion at -3 -120 or better