Game Analysis

Note: The line was Troy -1.5 when I posted the analysis and now UTSA is favored by 3 points. Still no play, as I have the Roadrunners by 2 points.

Texas-San Antonio (+1.5)  28   Troy  26

I pegged Troy as an underrated team heading into the season and easily won my season win total on the Trojans’ over 6 wins, as they’ve lost just 2 games with one of them being on a Hail Mary pass on the final play to Appalachian State (the other loss was to Ole Miss). Troy is also 10-3 ATS and is riding a 3 game spread win streak. However, teams entering their bowl game on a 3-games or more spread win streak are just 100-149-3 ATS (if not facing another such team) and my math picks this game even.

Troy’s offense has been 0.2 yards per play worse than average this season but they’ve been consistently worse than that since losing receivers Barber and Rogers in the middle of the season and I rate the Trojans’ attack at 0.4 yppl worse than average heading into this game. Troy should move the ball at a decent clip against an UTSA defense that’s been 0.5 yppl worse than average when accounting for the horrible backup quarterbacks that they faced in 3 of their final 5 games (UAB, Louisiana Tech and Rice).

Troy’s strength is a defense that’s yielded just 17.5 points per game and 4.7 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average FBS defense). That unit has a slight edge over a UTSA attack that’s been 0.6 yppl better than average over the course of the season and which I rate at 0.5 yppl better than average without injured WR De’Corian Clark, who led the team with 9.9 yards per target. Quarterback Frank Harris can beat you with his legs and his arm and he doesn’t make many mistakes (just 7 interceptions on 452 pass plays).

Troy is projected to outgain UTSA in this game but the Roadrunners have better special teams and a 1.2 points edge in projected turnovers. My math favors Troy by just 0.2 points and the Trojans apply to a 29-85-1 ATS subset of that bowl team off 3 or more spread wins angle.