Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *SOUTH FLORIDA (-13.5)  41   Texas-San Antonio  20

UTSA played their best game of the season last in a convincing 48-26 home win over Tulane in which quarterback Owen McCown completed 31 of 33 passes for 370 yards.  However, even with that outlier performance McCown still rates at 0.9 yards per pass play worse than average (6.2 yppp against teams that would combine to allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback) despite playing home games in perfect dome conditions.

McCown has been great in the dome this season (74% completions and 7.8 yppp with 13 TD passes and 0 interceptions), as he was last season (66% completions and 7.3 yppp) but he’s struggled away from home in his career. McCown has averaged completed just 59% of his passes on the road, 15% lower than in the dome, for just 4.5 yppp and just 4 TD passes vs 4 picks (and only 5.7 yppp playing outdoors last season).

South Florida has a good pass defense (0.6 yppp better than average) and McCown is projected to average just 4.0 yppp in this game (without making any adjustments for his historical indoor/outdoor splits). The Roadrunners will have to be more reliant on star RB Robert Henry Jr., but the Bulls have a run defense that ranks as 15th best in the nation (1.1 yards per rushing play better than average) and I don’t expect UTSA to run the ball consistently well – although Henry is usually good for one big run per game.

UTSA scored just 17 points at North Texas a couple of weeks ago, scored just 21 points in an upset loss at Temple in week 6, managed just 17 points in a 1 point non-covering win at Colorado State, and scored 17 points at Texas A&M in the opener before adding a garbage time TD in the final seconds of that game against the Aggies’ backups. The Roadrunners are averaging just 5.2 yards per play in outdoor games (6.8 yppl in their dome) and their offense, which I rate at 0.3 yppl worse than average, is projected to average just 4.3 yppl against a USF defense that is 0.7 yppl better than average. That projection would be lower if I only used their offensive metrics in road games.

South Florida should distance themselves with an offense that rates at 0.6 yppl better than average against a UTSA defense that’s given up 6.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team. The Bulls are averaging 37.1 points per game against FBS opponents that rate at 0.6 yppl better than UTSA’s defense and they should score at least that many points at home tonight.

South Florida is a 1-Star Best Bet at -14 -115 or better.