Old Dominion

Sat, Sep 24
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 379-380
Odds: Old Dominion -3.5, Total: 51.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – OLD DOMINION (-3 ½)  31   Texas San Antonio  22

1-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.

I would have made this game a Best Bet if not for a 74-154 ATS 1st conference game situation that applies to Old Dominion. I still like the Monarchs enough to make them a Strong Opinion despite that angle, as they are clearly the better team.

Both teams are equally bad defensively, with UTSA rating at 0.5 yards per play worse than average (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average just 4.8 against an average defensive team) and Old Dominion also rating at 0.5 yppl worse than average on defense (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl). The difference in this game is on the offensive side of the ball, where ODU has a huge advantage. Neither team is good offensively but Old Dominion can at least run the football with star RB Ray Lawry (2,326 career rushing yards at 6.4 ypr) and backup Jeremy Cox, who has averaged 5.7 ypr on his 85 career carries. The Monarchs have averaged 5.9 yards per rushing play in all 3 of their games so far this season, including against better than average defensive teams Appalachian State and NC State, who both defend the run pretty well. Quarterback David Washington enhanced the pass attack in the second half of last season after switching positions (he was a receiver) and he’s averaged 6.3 yards on his 254 career pass plays. That’s actually not that good considering he’s faced teams that would combine to allow 7.6 yppp to an average quarterback, but overall the Old Dominion offense is only 0.2 yards per play worse than average thanks to their strong rushing attack.

The UTSA offense, meanwhile, was horrible last season (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and they Roadrunners have been even worse so far this season. That isn’t obvious looking at the numbers, as UTSA has averaged 5.1 yppl but their 3 opponents would combine to allow 6.6 yppl to an average attack. I actually rate UTSA at 1.3 yppl worse than average without Dalton Sturm at quarterback but that’s significantly worse than the Old Dominion offense and both defenses rate the same.

Overall my ratings favor the Monarchs by 10 points and I get 13 points if I use this season’s games only. That’s certainly enough value to make this a Best Bet but the 74-154 ATS situation makes me cautious and I’ll consider Old Dominion a Strong Opinion at -4 or less and as a 1-Star Best Bet if the line drops to -3.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • UTSA
  • Old Dominion


  • Run Plays 29.3 44.7
  • Run Yards 75.3 223.3
  • YPRP 3.9 5.0


  • Pass Comp 18.0 14.7
  • Pass Att 32.3 29.7
  • Comp % 55.7% 49.4%
  • Pass Yards 225.3 193.0
  • Sacks 4.7 0.3
  • Sack Yards 39.3 0.7
  • Sack % 12.6% 1.1%
  • Pass Plays 37.0 30.0
  • Net Pass Yards 186.0 192.3
  • YPPP 5.0 6.4


  • Total Plays 66.3 74.7
  • Total Yards 300.7 416.3
  • YPPL 4.5 5.6


  • Int 0.7 0.3
  • Int % 2.1% 1.1%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.7
  • Turnovers 1.0 1.0
  • Points 21.8 25.3
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