Game Analysis

TEXAS (-30)  42   Utep  10

Texas is coming off a thrilling win over Notre Dame that wasn’t as an upset as far as I’m concerned, but the Longhorns could be in danger of a letdown against UTEP. The Miners beat New Mexico State, who was without by far their best player, last week 38-22 but UTEP is still a bad team on both sides of the ball and will probably be even worse on offense with wildcat quarterback Kavika Johnson starting in place of Zach Greenlee, who is out this week.

Johnson has average just 2.9 yards on 58 career pass plays but he has some running ability and running back Aaron Jones has some big play ability. Jones has averaged 5.6 yards on 460 career runs, including 249 yards on 31 carries last week. I still rate the UTEP rushing attack as below average but Texas’ weakness last season was run defense and I can certainly see the Miners adding a score late to cover. But, I don’t trust Johnson to be able to beat what is likely to be a Texas defense with an extra man at the line of scrimmage to help against the run. UTEP is also 6-20 ATS as an underdog away from home in recent years (4-15 ATS under coach Kugler) so I’m really having trouble making a case for either side in this game.

I do like the Under (59) though. UTEP plays at a slow pace (just 2.0 plays per minute of possession last week) and will likely run the ball even more this week, which will limit incomplete passes that stop the clock. Texas has upped their tempo this season but that’s factored into my projection and I get just 52 ½ total points. If you’re going to play this game I’d suggest playing the Under and leaving the side alone.