Game Analysis

Washington (-4.5)  24   Utah  21

The line on this game seems odd given that Washington was favored by 4.5 points and won 21-7 AT Utah earlier this season and now they’re favored by 4.5 points on a neutral field despite having dynamic TE Hunter Bryant finally healthy and with Utah being without their star running back Zack Moss (1092 yards at 6.1 ypr) and starting quarterback Tyler Huntley.

But, I’ve adjusted for all of those changes in personnel and my math only favors the Huskies by 3 points. Utah’s offense hasn’t really been much different without Moss and Huntley the last 3 games, as the Utes’ attack is 0.5 yards per play better than average for the season (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and they’ve been 0.4 yppl better than average in their last 3 games (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl).

Washington’s offense does get a boost with Bryant back, as the sophomore has averaged an incredible 14.4 yards on 34 career passes thrown to him with his average reception going for 18.0 yards. However, last week’s 3 targets was the most he’s had in his 3 games and he was targeted fewer than 3 times per game last season so his impact is just 0.3 yards per pass play unless they decide to target him more.

Washington did thoroughly beat the Utes in the week 3 meeting but the Huskies have been overrated all season (just 3-9 ATS) while Utah has covered the number in 6 of their last 8 games and seem to be underrated due to the injuries to Moss and Huntley, which have proven to not be that significant. No play for me but I’d lean slightly with Utah plus the points.