Game Analysis
Utah (+2.5) 33 Southern Cal 32
USC has been helped this season by a ridiculous +22 in turnover margin. Caleb Williams throwing only 3 interceptions is not that random but having lost just 1 of 9 fumbles versus 7 of 11 lost by their opponents is lucky – as is the 19 interceptions by a defense that projects to have just 11.7 interceptions based on their passes defended. A worse than average defense (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team) that’s allowing 64.5% completions should not have 19 interceptions and Utah’s Cam Rising has thrown just 12 interceptions on 650 pass attempts the last two seasons and didn’t throw a pick in the Utes’ 43-42 win over USC in week 7.
I do project a 0.3 edge in turnovers for USC but Utah has an overall edge from the line of scrimmage and the math picks this game dead even.
Rush
-
Run Plays
39.2
24.9
-
Run Yards
225.7
130.5
-
YPRP
5.8
5.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.6
17.4
-
Pass Att
30.8
29.1
-
Comp %
66.9%
59.9%
-
Pass Yards
244.5
203.9
-
Sacks
0.7
2.5
-
Sack Yards
4.8
18.3
-
Sack %
2.1%
7.9%
-
Pass Plays
31.4
31.6
-
Net Pass Yards
239.7
185.6
-
YPPP
7.6
5.9
Total
-
Total Plays
70.6
56.5
-
Total Yards
465.3
316.1
-
YPPL
6.6
5.6
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.9
-
Int %
2.2%
3.2%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.9
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
31.8
28.7
-
Run Yards
204.3
160.3
-
YPRP
6.4
5.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
23.3
21.7
-
Pass Att
35.1
33.9
-
Comp %
66.3%
63.9%
-
Pass Yards
321.6
258.8
-
Sacks
1.9
3.0
-
Sack Yards
15.3
19.9
-
Sack %
5.2%
8.1%
-
Pass Plays
37.0
36.9
-
Net Pass Yards
306.3
238.9
-
YPPP
8.3
6.5
Total
-
Total Plays
68.8
65.6
-
Total Yards
510.7
399.2
-
YPPL
7.4
6.1
TO
-
Int
0.3
1.6
-
Int %
0.7%
4.7%
-
Fumbles
0.0
0.6
-
Turnovers
0.3
2.2
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/22 @ Florida |
26-29 |
-2.5
L
|
39/38 |
230/278 |
5.9/7.3 |
0/1 |
22/17 |
32/24 |
216/168 |
1/0 |
0/0 |
6.8/7.0 |
446/446 |
6.3/7.2 |
| 09/10/22 Southern Utah |
73-7 |
0.0
W
|
39/20 |
249/50 |
6.4/2.5 |
1/0 |
23/11 |
29/23 |
311/35 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
10.4/1.5 |
560/85 |
8.1/1.9 |
| 09/17/22 San Diego St. |
35-7 |
-21.0
W
|
36/32 |
197/122 |
5.5/3.8 |
1/1 |
18/7 |
30/21 |
201/38 |
0/1 |
2/2 |
6.3/1.7 |
398/160 |
5.9/2.9 |
| 09/24/22 @ Arizona St. |
34-13 |
-15.5
W
|
45/15 |
205/51 |
4.6/3.4 |
0/1 |
19/21 |
29/36 |
264/211 |
1/2 |
0/5 |
9.1/5.1 |
469/262 |
6.3/4.7 |
| 10/01/22 Oregon St. |
42-16 |
-10.5
W
|
31/36 |
171/170 |
5.5/4.7 |
0/0 |
19/16 |
25/29 |
199/246 |
0/4 |
0/0 |
8.0/8.5 |
370/416 |
6.6/6.4 |
| 10/08/22 @ UCLA |
32-42 |
-4.0
L
|
41/34 |
204/218 |
5.0/6.4 |
1/0 |
23/18 |
32/23 |
275/287 |
1/1 |
2/2 |
8.1/11.5 |
479/505 |
6.4/8.6 |
| 10/15/22 USC |
43-42 |
-3.5
L
|
32/22 |
138/218 |
4.3/9.9 |
1/0 |
30/25 |
44/42 |
424/341 |
0/0 |
0/4 |
9.6/7.4 |
562/559 |
7.4/8.2 |
| 10/27/22 @ Washington St. |
21-17 |
-7.0
L
|
40/15 |
177/73 |
4.4/4.9 |
1/2 |
17/27 |
27/31 |
169/191 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
6.0/5.5 |
346/264 |
5.1/5.3 |
| 11/05/22 Arizona |
45-20 |
-17.5
W
|
54/22 |
313/184 |
5.8/8.4 |
2/4 |
13/15 |
25/30 |
138/196 |
0/0 |
1/3 |
5.3/5.9 |
451/380 |
5.6/6.9 |
| 11/12/22 Stanford |
42-7 |
-24.0
W
|
35/19 |
284/55 |
8.1/2.9 |
0/0 |
21/12 |
34/25 |
230/122 |
1/0 |
1/7 |
6.6/3.8 |
514/177 |
7.3/3.5 |
| 11/19/22 @ Oregon |
17-20 |
+1.0
L
|
35/22 |
157/75 |
4.5/3.4 |
0/2 |
21/25 |
38/37 |
170/279 |
3/1 |
0/1 |
4.5/7.3 |
327/354 |
4.5/5.9 |
| 11/26/22 @ Colorado |
63-21 |
-29.5
W
|
43/24 |
383/72 |
8.9/3.0 |
0/0 |
21/15 |
24/28 |
279/113 |
1/0 |
0/1 |
11.6/3.9 |
662/185 |
9.9/3.5 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/22 Rice |
66-14 |
-32.5
W
|
27/30 |
211/166 |
7.8/5.5 |
0/0 |
25/14 |
29/28 |
327/114 |
0/4 |
1/4 |
10.9/3.6 |
538/280 |
9.4/4.5 |
| 09/10/22 @ Stanford |
41-28 |
-8.5
W
|
32/40 |
194/221 |
6.1/5.5 |
0/2 |
20/20 |
27/35 |
313/185 |
0/2 |
3/5 |
10.4/4.6 |
507/406 |
8.2/5.1 |
| 09/17/22 Fresno St. |
45-17 |
-11.0
W
|
35/27 |
270/193 |
7.7/7.1 |
0/1 |
25/21 |
37/30 |
259/228 |
0/1 |
3/5 |
6.5/6.5 |
529/421 |
7.1/6.8 |
| 09/24/22 @ Oregon St. |
17-14 |
-5.5
L
|
34/31 |
195/153 |
5.7/4.9 |
0/0 |
16/17 |
36/29 |
164/167 |
0/4 |
2/0 |
4.3/5.8 |
359/320 |
5.0/5.3 |
| 10/01/22 Arizona St. |
42-25 |
-25.5
L
|
28/24 |
147/121 |
5.3/5.0 |
0/0 |
27/23 |
37/32 |
340/210 |
1/1 |
1/5 |
8.9/5.7 |
487/331 |
7.4/5.4 |
| 10/08/22 Washington St. |
30-14 |
-12.5
W
|
38/23 |
192/177 |
5.1/7.7 |
0/0 |
15/19 |
29/32 |
177/139 |
0/0 |
2/6 |
5.7/3.7 |
369/316 |
5.3/5.2 |
| 10/15/22 @ Utah |
42-43 |
+3.5
W
|
22/32 |
218/138 |
9.9/4.3 |
0/1 |
25/30 |
42/44 |
341/424 |
0/0 |
4/0 |
7.4/9.6 |
559/562 |
8.2/7.4 |
| 10/29/22 @ Arizona |
45-37 |
-14.0
L
|
31/24 |
212/185 |
6.8/7.7 |
0/0 |
31/26 |
45/43 |
411/358 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
9.1/8.0 |
623/543 |
8.2/7.9 |
| 11/05/22 California |
41-35 |
-21.5
L
|
26/21 |
159/80 |
6.1/3.8 |
0/0 |
26/35 |
41/49 |
360/389 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
8.8/7.5 |
519/469 |
7.7/6.4 |
| 11/11/22 Colorado |
55-17 |
-34.0
W
|
38/32 |
230/167 |
6.1/5.2 |
0/1 |
19/9 |
33/21 |
313/52 |
1/1 |
3/3 |
8.7/2.2 |
543/219 |
7.3/3.9 |
| 11/19/22 @ UCLA |
48-45 |
-3.0
T
|
33/36 |
204/216 |
6.2/6.0 |
0/1 |
32/23 |
43/38 |
455/299 |
1/3 |
2/1 |
10.1/7.7 |
659/515 |
8.4/6.9 |
| 11/26/22 Notre Dame |
38-27 |
-4.5
W
|
37/24 |
220/106 |
5.9/4.4 |
0/1 |
18/23 |
22/26 |
216/302 |
0/1 |
2/2 |
9.0/10.8 |
436/408 |
7.1/7.8 |
Utah
vs 
USC