Game Analysis

Lean – Over (54.5) – Utah (-7)  32   Texas  25

This could be similar to last season for Texas, who benefits from playing a team that may not care that much after blowing their chance of making the playoffs. Last season that team was Georgia and the Longhorns won straight up as a 12-point underdog and now the question is how much Utah really cares after getting upset in the Pac-12 Championship game.

Utah running back Zack Moss cares enough to play in this game rather than sitting out before heading to the NFL and the Utes’ offense has a big advantage over the Longhorns’ defense. Utah averaged 6.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team while Texas was just 0.1 yppl better than average defensively (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defense). The Longhorns defend the run well (4.8 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yprp) and should defend Moss well, but their banged up secondary has been 0.2 yards per pass play worse than average (7.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 7.2 yppp against an average team) and Tyler Huntley, who completes 74% of his passes, should pick the Longhorns’ secondary apart. The math projects 4.8 yprp, 9.7 yppp, and 7.0 yards per play for Utah but Texas has a lot of defensive players listed as questionable for this game, so those numbers could be surpassed if a few of the injured defenders don’t play.

The Texas offense was also good, as the Horns averaged 471 yards at 6.4 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and scored 35 points per game. Utah’s defense was among the best in the nation, allowing just 13.2 points per game and rating at 1.4 yppl better than average (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl (adjusted for facing Cal’s horrible 3^rd-string QB). However, I rate the Utes as 0.3 yppl worse than their season rating due to the absence of NFL-bound CB Jaylon Johnson and injured FS Julian Blackmon, who combined for 21 passes defended. It will certainly be easier to throw against the Utes with half of their starting secondary not playing and my math projects Texas with 358 yards at 5.9 yppl in this game.

Overall, the math favors Utah by 8.2 points and 57.6 total points (in perfect dome conditions). I have no interest in playing Utah here with their psyche in question and Texas coach Tom Herman’s 15-4 ATS record as an underdog in his coaching career (3-0 SU in bowl games as a dog). I will lean Over 55 points or less.