Game Analysis

**Utah State (+28)  13   WISCONSIN  34

Utah State was much better last season than their 3-9 record indicates, as the Aggies averaged 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowed 5.5 yppl in their 11 games against FBS competition. When taking their strength of schedule into account Utah State was 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively with an overall compensated line of scrimmage rating of -5.1 points (due mostly to their -5.8 play differential). The Aggies were not far from being an average FBS team but they finished 3-9 because their defense only averaged 0.8 takeaways per game, which is randomly low given how good they were overall defensively, and because they couldn’t win a close game (0-4 in games decided by 7 points or fewer).

Utah State quarterback Kent Myers returns for his 4^th season as the starter and the Aggies’ top rusher and top pass catcher return. However, my algorithm rates the offense the same due to less experience along the offensive line. However, I can certainly envision an improvement given the new offensive coordinator (David Yost spent the last 4 season in the Pac 12 at Washington State and Oregon) and the fact that Myers’ numbers last season (1.1 yards per pass play worse than average) were 0.5 yppp worse than his career rating. The Aggies’ defense returns just 5 starters but last year’s unit returned only 3 starters and was still better than average so some improvement should be expected on that side of the ball. Overall, I expect Utah State to be a bit better this season and the Aggies are certainly better than they’re perceived to be.

Wisconsin had a very good season in 2016, as the Badgers’ 3 losses were all close games to elite teams – a 7 point loss at Michigan, an overtime loss to Ohio State, and a 7 point loss to Penn State in the Big 10 Championship game. Wisconsin also had 5 one-possession victories last season and the Badgers’ +12 turnover margin made them seem better than they actually were. I do think that Wisconsin will be a bit better on both sides of the ball this season but they aren’t likely to be as fortunate with turnovers.

I rank Wisconsin as the 14^th best team in the nation heading into this season, so I’m certainly not slighting them here, but Utah State is clearly underrated based on the line on this game. My math model would have favored Wisconsin by just 19 points using last year’s numbers and my current ratings favor the Badgers by just 21 ½ points. There is, of course, a lot of variance in ratings for week 1 but games with a difference of 6 points or more between my ratings and the line have been 58% over the years and I’ll play Utah State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +28 points or more (Strong Opinion down to +26).

Note: I released this game to my subscribers on Wednesday morning when the line was +28. That number has come down a bit but it may go back up to +28 or more on game day.