Game Analysis

BOISE STATE (-21 ½)  36   Utah State  15

My math model favors Boise State by 21 ½ points, which is right on the Vegas number, but the math also projects just 51 ½ total points, which makes the under worth a look. Utah State is struggling offensively, averaging 4.6 yppl against FBS opponents that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team, and the Aggies are better than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team). Boise State has been really good offensively (7.2 yppl) but the Broncos have a good defense too (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl) that should keep Utah State around 14 to 17 points. Boise’s 3 games have averaged 58.7 total points, which is just 1.5 points higher than the national average of 57.2 total points per game. Utah State, meanwhile, has averaged 51.0 total points in their 3 games against FBS opponents and also totaled 51 points in their 45-6 win over Weber State. With Utah State being 6.2 points lower scoring than average and Boise being barely above average in total points I just don’t see they come up with a total of 59 points in this game. My model compensates for opponents and comes up with 51 ½ points and the projected yardage results in a 52 total points. I like the under in this game.