Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **UCLA (+3 -115)  40   Southern Cal  33

Both of these teams are among the best in the nation offensively, as USC’s offense has been 1.5 yards per play better than average while UCLA’s attack has been 1.4 yppl better than average. The difference in this game is likely to be the Bruins’ superior defense, as that unit has been 0.5 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team) while USC is a bit worse than average on a compensated yards per play basis (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl).

The Trojans have been lucky to allow just 24.4 points per game but they gave up an average of 40 points to the only really good offensive teams that they faced (Utah and Arizona) and UCLA, averaging 256 run yards per game at 7.1 yards per rushing play, will run all over a soft USC defensive front that’s given up 5.6 yprp this season (to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average team).

I project each quarterback to average 7.1 yards per pass play but UCLA is projected to average 7.5 yprp to USC’s 5.7 yprp. The Trojans’ only advantage is projected turnovers (0.45 in their favor) and UCLA is the better team overall and is getting points at home.

In addition to the line value the Bruins apply to a 188-98-2 ATS situation that plays on the home team in games between two high scoring teams.

UCLA is a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and a 1-Star play at pick or -1.