Game Analysis

STANFORD (-8 ½)  27   Usc  19

I’m not interested in picking a side here, as my ratings favor Stanford by 8 ½ points, but I do like the Under (52 ½). Stanford is a slow paced team offensively and all the hype about Christian McCaffrey, while fully deserved, has led to the Cardinal attack being overrated. As good as McCaffrey is, Stanford was just 0.7 yards per rushing play better than average last season (5.7 yprp against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp), which ranked 23^rd in the nation. What made Stanford so good offensively in 2015 was 4 year starting quarterback Kevin Hogan, who averaged 8.6 yards per pass play in his senior season. New quarterback Ryan Burns had a good debut with 7.6 yards per pass play on his 20 pass plays but that’s not as good as Hogan was last season and the rushing attack won’t be as good either with teams more focused on McCaffrey and less focused on the pass attack.

USC has a good defense (despite what they showed in week 1 versus Alabama) but Stanford’s offense has the edge and the Cardinal are projected to average a healthy 6.1 yards per play in this game – although for a modest 356 total yards due to the low number of possessions expected.

USC’s offense is struggling, as the Trojans gained just 5.2 yards per play in last week’s win over Utah State after being held to 3.2 yppl in their blowout loss to Alabama. Stanford has a very strong defense and I don’t see USC suddenly breaking out of their offensive malaise against the Cardinal. I still rate USC as a better than average offense despite averaging just 4.3 yppl in their first two games, and my ratings project 320 yards at 4.9 yppl for the Trojans in this game.

With USC struggling offensively and Stanford playing at a slow pace offensively, it will be a challenge for these teams to top 50 points and I think the Under is the way to go in this game.