Game Analysis

Lean – NOTRE DAME (-2.5)  33   Southern Cal  26

USC has an all-time great offense that has averaged 7.2 yards per rushing play and 9.7 yards per pass play with Caleb Williams in the game. That attack was slowed a bit last week by a solid Arizona defense and the Trojans will be tested by a Notre Dame stop unit that has been 1.1 yards per play better than average this season. That’s not nearly as good as a Trojans’ offense that has been 2.8 yppl better than average but the wind and rain expected on Saturday night in South Bend will also help slow down Williams & company.

The issue with USC is a mediocre defense that’s been 0.1 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.3 yppl allowed with starters in the game against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense. The two best offensive teams that the Trojans have faced were in the last two weeks and Colorado and Arizona combined to average 6.1 yppl and average 34.5 points (in regulation). Notre Dame’s offense is 1.4 yppl better than average, which is 0.8 yppl better than the average rating of the Colorado and Arizona offensive units, and the Irish should move the ball well in this game. If the weather is affecting the passing game, they can lean on a good rushing attack against a USC defensive front that’s surrendered 5.4 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average only 4.7 yprp against an average defense.

The numbers favor Notre Dame to win by more than a field goal and I’ll lean with the Irish at -3 or less.