Game Analysis
Nevada-Las Vegas (-9.5) 32 SAM HOUSTON 25
UNLV’s offense looked Good in last week’s 38-31 win over FCS team Idaho State. However, the Rebels’ rebuilt defense (just 1 returning starter) and new coaching staff have work to do after giving up 560 total yards at 7.3 yards per play. FBS teams that give up more than 28 points in their opener to an FCS opponent are just 41.5% ATS in their second game since 1980, including only 8-22-1 ATS if favored.
Sam Houston also opened their season last week and lost 24-41 at Western Kentucky. However, the Bearkats didn’t play as badly as the score indicates, as they averaged 6.3 yards per play on offense and allowed just 5.9 yppl. The difference in the game was 3rd-down conversions. Sam Houston managed to convert on just 2 of 17 3rd and 4th-down conversions while WKU moved the chains on 11 of 20 3rd and 4th- down chances. There is a lot of variance in 3rd-down efficiency and my rating on Sam Houston actually improved slightly after last week’s result.
My ratings favored UNLV by just 9.4 points prior to last week’s games and now I favor the Rebels by just 7.0 points.
Rush
-
Run Plays
39.2
29.4
-
Run Yards
241.8
146.1
-
YPRP
6.2
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
12.9
21.0
-
Pass Att
22.2
37.1
-
Comp %
58.3%
56.6%
-
Pass Yards
167.5
234.5
-
Sacks
2.5
3.1
-
Sack Yards
15.7
20.5
-
Sack %
10.3%
7.7%
-
Pass Plays
24.7
40.2
-
Net Pass Yards
151.9
214.0
-
YPPP
6.2
5.3
Total
-
Total Plays
63.9
69.5
-
Total Yards
393.7
360.1
-
YPPL
6.2
5.2
TO
-
Int
0.5
1.1
-
Int %
2.1%
2.9%
-
Fumbles
0.2
0.4
-
Turnovers
0.6
1.5
Rush
-
Run Plays
39.5
34.1
-
Run Yards
195.8
159.7
-
YPRP
5.0
4.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.8
17.6
-
Pass Att
26.9
30.6
-
Comp %
62.5%
57.5%
-
Pass Yards
163.3
175.5
-
Sacks
2.3
2.2
-
Sack Yards
11.2
11.6
-
Sack %
7.9%
6.6%
-
Pass Plays
29.2
32.8
-
Net Pass Yards
152.2
163.8
-
YPPP
5.2
5.0
Total
-
Total Plays
68.6
66.9
-
Total Yards
348.0
323.5
-
YPPL
5.1
4.8
TO
-
Int
0.7
1.2
-
Int %
2.6%
4.0%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.9
-
Turnovers
1.2
2.1
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/24 @ Houston |
27-7 |
+2.5
W
|
45/20 |
201/87 |
4.5/4.4 |
0/0 |
7/19 |
14/38 |
110/129 |
1/2 |
1/6 |
7.3/2.9 |
311/216 |
5.2/3.4 |
| 09/07/24 Utah Tech |
72-14 |
0.0
W
|
61/23 |
509/75 |
8.3/3.3 |
1/1 |
9/18 |
18/34 |
158/218 |
0/1 |
1/1 |
8.3/6.2 |
667/293 |
8.3/5.1 |
| 09/13/24 @ Kansas |
23-20 |
+9.0
W
|
43/33 |
193/206 |
4.5/6.2 |
0/0 |
7/12 |
18/24 |
69/146 |
0/2 |
2/2 |
3.5/5.6 |
262/352 |
4.2/6.0 |
| 09/28/24 Fresno St. |
59-14 |
-1.5
W
|
39/27 |
252/74 |
6.5/2.7 |
0/0 |
14/29 |
17/45 |
198/312 |
0/2 |
0/4 |
11.6/6.4 |
450/386 |
8.0/5.1 |
| 10/04/24 Syracuse |
41-44 |
-6.0
L
|
22/32 |
131/150 |
6.0/4.7 |
0/0 |
21/40 |
25/63 |
223/355 |
1/1 |
2/0 |
8.3/5.6 |
354/505 |
7.2/5.3 |
| 10/11/24 @ Utah St. |
50-34 |
-19.0
L
|
41/28 |
349/142 |
8.5/5.1 |
0/1 |
13/41 |
20/59 |
199/448 |
0/3 |
4/3 |
8.3/7.2 |
548/590 |
8.4/6.6 |
| 10/19/24 @ Oregon St. |
33-25 |
-6.5
W
|
39/31 |
201/175 |
5.2/5.6 |
0/1 |
15/21 |
27/37 |
183/193 |
1/0 |
1/6 |
6.5/4.5 |
384/368 |
5.7/5.0 |
| 10/25/24 Boise St. |
24-29 |
+3.5
L
|
29/37 |
228/189 |
7.9/5.1 |
0/0 |
12/18 |
21/33 |
140/209 |
1/0 |
6/0 |
5.2/6.3 |
368/398 |
6.6/5.7 |
| 11/09/24 @ Hawaii |
29-27 |
-12.5
L
|
44/24 |
310/133 |
7.0/5.5 |
0/0 |
13/14 |
27/35 |
156/242 |
0/1 |
3/6 |
5.2/5.9 |
466/375 |
6.3/5.8 |
| 11/16/24 San Diego St. |
41-20 |
-20.5
W
|
46/33 |
260/129 |
5.7/3.9 |
1/0 |
23/13 |
32/22 |
260/147 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
7.9/6.1 |
520/276 |
6.6/4.8 |
| 11/22/24 @ San Jose St. |
27-16 |
-7.5
W
|
58/24 |
272/68 |
4.7/2.8 |
0/1 |
11/4 |
20/22 |
116/81 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
5.0/3.7 |
388/149 |
4.8/3.2 |
| 11/30/24 Nevada |
38-14 |
-17.5
W
|
40/20 |
348/97 |
8.7/4.9 |
1/1 |
14/25 |
21/38 |
162/233 |
0/1 |
1/6 |
7.4/5.3 |
510/330 |
8.2/5.2 |
| 12/06/24 @ Boise St. |
7-21 |
+4.0
L
|
29/34 |
241/225 |
8.3/6.6 |
0/0 |
13/18 |
28/27 |
75/151 |
1/0 |
6/1 |
2.2/5.4 |
316/376 |
5.0/6.1 |
| 12/18/24 California |
24-13 |
-2.0
W
|
35/39 |
158/224 |
4.5/5.7 |
0/1 |
5/19 |
18/39 |
83/136 |
0/0 |
3/4 |
4.0/3.2 |
241/360 |
4.3/4.4 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/24 @ Rice |
34-14 |
+10.0
W
|
39/16 |
207/62 |
5.3/3.9 |
0/0 |
16/27 |
27/44 |
199/212 |
0/2 |
7/2 |
5.9/4.6 |
406/274 |
5.6/4.4 |
| 09/07/24 @ UCF |
14-45 |
+21.0
L
|
28/55 |
84/397 |
3.0/7.2 |
0/1 |
17/14 |
24/17 |
134/172 |
2/0 |
1/2 |
5.4/9.1 |
218/569 |
4.1/7.7 |
| 09/14/24 Hawaii |
31-13 |
-4.5
W
|
45/19 |
257/74 |
5.7/3.9 |
1/0 |
15/21 |
23/42 |
165/236 |
1/1 |
0/2 |
7.2/5.4 |
422/310 |
6.2/4.9 |
| 09/21/24 New Mexico St. |
31-11 |
-16.0
W
|
52/27 |
294/98 |
5.7/3.6 |
0/1 |
12/14 |
26/29 |
92/69 |
2/2 |
1/1 |
3.4/2.3 |
386/167 |
4.9/2.9 |
| 09/28/24 Texas State |
40-39 |
+9.5
W
|
52/28 |
327/95 |
6.3/3.4 |
1/1 |
10/29 |
19/39 |
70/326 |
0/0 |
4/0 |
3.0/8.4 |
397/421 |
5.3/6.3 |
| 10/03/24 @ UTEP |
41-21 |
-10.5
W
|
49/31 |
311/129 |
6.3/4.2 |
1/2 |
20/15 |
31/29 |
231/193 |
0/2 |
2/3 |
7.0/6.0 |
542/322 |
6.6/5.1 |
| 10/16/24 Western Kentucky |
14-31 |
-2.0
L
|
35/37 |
182/151 |
5.2/4.1 |
1/1 |
19/20 |
32/30 |
226/225 |
1/0 |
3/4 |
6.5/6.6 |
408/376 |
5.8/5.3 |
| 10/22/24 @ FIU |
10-7 |
-5.5
L
|
41/34 |
138/140 |
3.4/4.1 |
0/0 |
14/8 |
21/21 |
76/60 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
3.6/2.6 |
214/200 |
3.5/3.5 |
| 10/29/24 Louisiana Tech |
9-3 |
-10.5
L
|
28/34 |
125/139 |
4.5/4.1 |
1/3 |
18/24 |
26/40 |
155/185 |
1/1 |
1/5 |
5.7/4.1 |
280/324 |
5.1/4.1 |
| 11/16/24 @ Kennesaw State |
23-17 |
-21.0
L
|
40/32 |
214/114 |
5.4/3.6 |
0/0 |
22/16 |
32/24 |
168/136 |
1/1 |
3/1 |
4.8/5.4 |
382/250 |
5.1/4.4 |
| 11/23/24 @ Jacksonville State |
11-21 |
+6.0
L
|
37/57 |
181/287 |
4.9/5.0 |
0/1 |
13/9 |
26/12 |
78/45 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
2.8/3.5 |
259/332 |
4.0/4.7 |
| 11/29/24 Liberty |
20-18 |
+2.5
W
|
40/34 |
144/195 |
3.6/5.7 |
0/0 |
19/12 |
34/37 |
193/73 |
1/2 |
2/2 |
5.4/1.9 |
337/268 |
4.4/3.7 |
| 12/19/24 Georgia Southern |
31-26 |
+6.0
W
|
27/39 |
82/195 |
3.0/5.0 |
1/1 |
23/20 |
28/34 |
191/198 |
0/4 |
4/3 |
6.0/5.4 |
273/393 |
4.6/5.2 |
UNLV
@ 
Sam Houston State